A Century Ago: Germans In Lorraine

Today's New York Times on line publishes the account of a young German soldier's experiences with the German Army in Lorraine August 22, 1914 and afterward.

The story is told by an American woman living in Paris whose grandfather was among the invaders of the little village of Mercy-le-Haut. But she also tells the story of what happened to the villagers when the Germans came.

One villager, Marthe Mandy, recounted her mother’s tales of those years as if she had lived it all herself. Her eyes welled up as she told of an uncle she never met who was executed by the Germans that night. The uncle, Léon Mandy, was 17. He had been ordered to gather the bodies of nine of his neighbors who died as the Germans stormed the village and to bury them in a mass grave. When Léon had finished his grim task shortly before dawn, he was shot.

Many accounts of World War I claim that the war was fought in a chivalrous fashion at the outset, but became more inhumane as time went by. Tell that to the French and Belgians along the frontier! The invasion did not seem so humane to them.

Why did the Germans shoot Leon Mandy?

They shot countless Frenchmen and Belgians in the early days of the war, sometimes for being impolite to the invaders.

What is the moral of the story?

In the end, Germany lost. A quarter century later they attacked again and lost again.

Glory To Ukraine

On February 23 2014 in Sofia, Bulgaria, unknown artists decorated the memorial to Soviet soldiers in the national colors of Ukraine in honor of the Ukrainian revolution. They painted the slogan "Glory to Ukraine."

Russians object to it as "vandalism."  No, it is irreverent humor, not vandalism.

Three cheers for irreverence!

A Century Ago: Belgian Populace Impolite To Invading Germans - Germans Offended And Execute Resisters

Today Economist Brad Delong publishes Barbara Tuchman's account of Belgian resistance to German invasion of 1914 and German countermeasures:

"The Belgians even more than von Bülow tried von Kluck’s temper. Their army by forcing the Germans to fight their way through delayed the schedule of march and by blowing up railroads and bridges disrupted the flow of ammunition, food, medicine, mail, and every other supply, causing the Germans a constant diversion of effort to keep open their lines to the rear. Civilians blocked roads and worst of all cut telephone and telegraph wires which dislocated communication not only between the German armies and OHL but also between army and army and corps and corps. This “extremely aggressive guerrilla warfare,” as von Kluck called it, and especially the sniping by franc-tireurs at German soldiers, exasperated him and his fellow commanders. From the moment his army entered Belgium he found it necessary to take, in his own words, “severe and inexorable reprisals” such as “the shooting of individuals and the burning of homes” against the “treacherous” attacks of the civil population." Tuchman, Guns of August.

It is worth reading the entire excerpt: Germans Retaliate.

In 1980 at a wedding dinner in Belgium, we sat across from a woman in her 90's who had been about 20 when the Germans invaded. She called them "le Boches." And had never come to view Germans as allies.

German ill treatment of civilians in invaded countries was nothing new. In 1889, Germany intervened in a civil war with Samoa. When opponents of their Samoan puppet fought back, Germany issued a proclamation:

“In conformity with section 58 of the German Military Laws, the following offenses will be punished by death:

1. Any person or persons who will purposely assist the enemy, or attempt to injure German troops;

2. Any person or persons who will lead the enemy for military purposes against Germans, or confederated troops, or will mislead German or confederated troops;

3.Any person or persons who will venture to give information to the enemy, either verbally or in writing, about matters which are connected with the waging of war, and all who may act on behalf of such persons;

4. Any person or persons who will instigate or incite German troops against law and order, by any means, as, for instance, informing them of proclamations of the enemy, etc. etc;

5.In not very serious cases the offender will be punished by imprisonment, not less than 10 years or for life.”

Thus did Germany seek to win the hearts and minds of the Samoans. And the Belgians.

A Century Ago: Germany Invades Belgium

On July 28, 1914, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Russia mobilizes. Following events came on hot and heavy. July 31, Germany warns Russia not to mobilize. Russia responds they are only mobilizing against Austria. August 1, Germany declares war on Russia. August 2, Germany invades neutral Luxemburg. August 3, Germany declares war on France. Neutral Belgium denies Germany permission to pass through to the French border. August 4, Germany attacks neutral Belgium, Great Britain protests, Germany replies that the treaty guaranteeing Belgian neutrality is just a chiffon de papier. The United Kingdom declares war on Germany.

Thus a week after Austria declares war on Serbia, war is well underway on the Western Front.

August 4 Germany begins its siege of Belgium's fortresses at Liege. Surprisingly effective Belgian defense slows German advance. Germans do not capture Liege fortresses until August 16.

August 16-19, Serbs defeat Austria Hungary at the Battle of Cer.

August 17, Russians invade East Prussia. Two weeks into the war the Eastern Front begins to take shape.

100 Years Ago:Franz Joseph Declares War On Serbia

July 28, 1914, Emperor Franz Joseph of the Austro-Hungarian Empire declared war on Serbia, responding to Serbia's answer to Austro-Hungary's ultimatum concerning the assassination of the heir to the throne, the Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

Even at the time, Emperor Wilhelm II of Germany thought the Serbian response had "removed all pretext for war." By the standards of the day, the assassination plausibly served as a causus belli, but even so, there were dangers.

Justified or not, the Austrian declaration of war comes down as one of the most disastrous decisions of all time by a major state.

Here is the declaration:

"To my peoples! It was my fervent wish to consecrate the years which, by the grace of God, still remain to me, to the works of peace and to protect my peoples from the heavy sacrifices and burdens of war. Providence, in its wisdom, has otherwise decreed. The intrigues of a malevolent opponent compel me, in the defense of the honor of my Monarchy, for the protection of its dignity and its position as a power, for the security of its possessions, to grasp the sword after long years.

"With a quickly forgetful ingratitude, the Kingdom of Serbia, which, from the first beginnings of its independence as a State until quite recently, had been supported and assisted by my ancestors, has for years trodden the path of open hostility to Austria-Hungary.

"When, after three decades of fruitful work for peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, I extended my Sovereign rights to those lands, my decree called forth in the Kingdom of Serbia, whose rights were in nowise injured, outbreaks of unrestrained passion and the bitterest hate.

"My Government at that time employed the handsome privileges of the stronger, and with extreme consideration and leniency only requested Serbia to reduce her army to a peace footing and to promise that, for the future, she would tread the path of peace and friendship. Guided by the same spirit of moderation, my Government, when Serbia, two years ago, was embroiled in a struggle with the Turkish Empire, restricted its action to the defense of the most serious and vital interests of the Monarchy. It was to this attitude that Serbia primarily owed the attainment of the objects of that war.

"The hope that the Serbian Kingdom would appreciate the patience and love of peace of my Government and would keep its word has not been fulfilled. The flame of its hatred for myself and my house has blazed always higher; the design to tear from us by force inseparable portions of Austria-Hungary has been made manifest with less and less disguise.

"A criminal propaganda has extended over the frontier with the object of destroying the foundations of State order in the southeastern part of the monarchy; of making the people, to whom I, in my paternal affection, extended my full confidence, waver in its loyalty to the ruling house and to the Fatherland; of leading astray its growing youth and inciting it to mischievous deeds of madness and high treason.

"A series of murderous attacks, an organized, carefully prepared, and well carried out conspiracy, whose fruitful success wounded me and my loyal peoples to the heart, forms a visible bloody track of those secret machinations which were operated and directed in Serbia.

"A halt must be called to these intolerable proceedings and an end must be put to the incessant provocations of Serbia. The honor and dignity of my monarchy must be preserved unimpaired, and its political, economic, and military development must be guarded from these continual shocks. In vain did my Government make a last attempt to accomplish this object by peaceful means and to induce Serbia, by means of a serious warning, to desist.

"Serbia has rejected the just and moderate demands of my Government and refused to conform to those obligations the fulfillment of which forms the natural and necessary foundation of peace in the life of peoples and States. I must therefore proceed by force of arms to secure those indispensable pledges which alone can insure tranquillity to my States within and lasting peace without.

"In this solemn hour I am fully conscious of the whole significance of my resolve and my responsibility before the Almighty. I have examined and weighed everything, and with a serene conscience I set out on the path to which my duty points. I trust in my peoples, who, throughout every storm, have always rallied in unity and loyalty around my throne, and have always been prepared for the severest sacrifices for the honor, the greatness, and the might of the Fatherland. I trust in Austria-Hungary's brave and devoted forces, and I trust in the Almighty to give the victory to my arms."

FRANZ JOSEPH

Thus with flowery language of the nineteenth cenury did the Emperor Franz Joseph initiate the destruction of his own empire and that of his allies, Germany and the Ottomans. The war also destroyed the Tsarist Empire and seriously damaged the British and French Empires. On the whole, it was a disastrous introduction to the Twentieth Century.

Ukraine, Russia, Malaysia: Fools Act And People Die

I just listened to the tapes released by Ukraine of separatist militiamen talking to Russian military officers about the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner. It helped that Ukraine provided a transcription in Russian, but the Russian was clear and not hard to understand. I didn't get a hint of remorse or even much excitement when they reported it was a civilian passenger liner.

Here is a link. It is worth listening to, even if you don't understand Russian. Pretty cold-blooded.

The missile used was apparently a Russian SA-11 GADFLY, a medium-range, semi-active, radar-guided missile using solid-rocket propulsion that provides defense against high-performance aircraft and cruise missiles. The SA-11 represents a considerable improvement over the earlier SA-6 GAINFUL system, and can engage six separate targets simultaneously, rather than the single target capability of the SA-6. Single-shot kill probability are claimed to be 60-90% against aircraft, 30-70% against helicopters, and 40% against cruise missiles, a significant improvement over the SA-6. The system is more mobile, taking only about 5 minutes to move from road march to engagement. The new system also offers significantly greater resistance to ECM than previous systems. The SA-11 system is comprised of the TELAR (9A310M1), Loader/Launcher (9A39M1), SNOW DRIFT Surveillance Radar (9S18M1), and Command and Control vehicle (9S470M1).

The Mach 3 semi-active homing 9M28M1 missile has a maximum slant range of 28 km and a minimum range of 3 km. It is capable of engaging targets between altitudes of 30 and 14000 m and can sustain 23 g maneuvers. The solid fuel missile is 5.6 meters long with a diameter is 0.4 m and a wing span is 1.2 m. The launch weight is 650 kg, which includes a 70 kg HE warhead with a 17 meter lethal radius.

More than enough to destroy a civilian airliner flying under civilian air traffic control using ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) procedures at normal operating altitude flying straight and level.

Ultimately, Russia is responsible for this shoot-down.
 

100 Years Ago: Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina

Assassin's Route, Sarajevo, June 28, 1914

June 27, 1914 was the day the final steps in the plot were taken. Serbian intelligence knew when the Archduke Francis Ferdinand and his Czech wife would arrive at the train station, the route and time table for the motorcade and who would be riding in each automobile. To make it easier, the Archduke's convertible top would be down so the crowd could see the heir to the throne and his wife.

It was a suicide mission. The six assassins spaced along the route carried a mixed assortment of weapons: some carried hand grenades, others had bombs. Four carried Browning .38 caliber automatic pistols manufactured in Belgium. Each carried cyanide pills.

Otto von Bismarck, dead since 1898, once remarked that the whole of the Balkans was "not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier." He also observed that  "If there is ever another war in Europe, it will come out of some damned silly thing in the Balkans."

The planning and execution of the assassination by Serbian conspirators, directed out of Belgrade by Serbian military intelligence and coordinated with nationalist groups such as Young Bosnia, the Black Hand, and Narodna Odbrana (People's Defense) soon degenerated into a fiasco,

The first assassin didn't lift a finger as the Archduke's automobile rolled past. The second assassin also failed to act. The third assassin threw his bomb at the Archduke, but it missed and exploded under a following car. The assassin swallowed his cyanide pill and jumped into the river to complete his suicide, but the river proved to be only four inches deep at that point. The cyanide only induced vomiting. He was captured.

The procession sped away towards the Town Hall leaving the disabled car behind. Cvjetko Popović, Gavrilo Princip, and Trifun Grabež, the final three assassins, failed to act as the motorcade passed them at high speed. The Archduke gave his expected speech at Town Hall, then changed his itinerary to go to the hospital and check on the welfare of those injured in the bomb blast.

Meanwhile, nineteen year old Gavrilo Princip, who had missed his chance, wandered off in search of lunch. Princip was standing in front of Schiller's Delicatessen near the Latin Bridge, when suddenly the Archduke's car stopped almost in front of him. The driver, confused by the change in plans, had stalled the car and was having trouble getting it started.

Princip stepped forward and fired two shots from a distance of about 5 feet with his Belgian-made .38  Fabrique Nationale model 1910 semi-automatic pistol. The first bullet wounded the Archduke in the jugular vein, the second inflicted an abdominal wound on the Duchess. Princip was immediately arrested.

The "damned silly thing in the Balkans" had happened.

A month later, July 28, 1914, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia.

Seventy Years Ago In Europe: First German Buzz Bombs Hit London

Since 1936 Germany had been working on various guided bombs. The first flying prototype of a flying bomb, the forerunner of our later cruise missiles, was completed. The problem: it was radio controlled, which endangered the control aircraft. Back to the drawing board. The answer: give up some accuracy by using a regular autopilot, and simplify the propulsion by using a pulse-jet engine.

A week after the allies landed at Normandy, Germany fired the first V-1 "buzz bomb" at London.

Was it effective? Somewhat. Was it decisive? No.

Here is the story.  It certainly caused anxiety in London, as did the later V-2 ballistic missile. But it was too little, too late. And nothing could halt the Soviet juggernaut moving inexorably toward Berlin.




German fantasies of victory were fading fast.

Seventy Years Ago:Ernie Pyle at Normandy

Ernie Pyle, the GI\s favorite war correspondent, walked upon the beach at Normandy. The incredible scene he described has never been adequately captured in the movies. Just imagine the German prisoners on the bluff overlooking the sea and contemplating their nation's doom.

Here is Pyle's account. :http://journalism.indiana.edu/resources/erniepyle/wartime-columns/the-horrible-waste-of-war/
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Ukrainian Elections

A week from today, Ukraine holds a fateful election. The Ukrainians I met two decades ago want only to be a normal European country. They have earned the right to try, by spilling their blood at Maidan Square.

But Democracy and freedom, which is what they want, isn't a one-time affair. Now they must earn the right by elections, by economic development, by moving away from the kind of kleptocracy that has governed them for too long. Only the Ukrainian people can do that.

Voting will take courage. Rebuilding the country will take even more courage.

Vlast' Narodam!

Trouble in Turkey

Disaster in a Turkish mine. Accident? Probably no one intentionally caused the explosion.

But in such an instance, there are really no accidents.

Safety is a consequence of planning, regulation, inspections and control. The saying: "Safety is no accident."

There is certainly more to the explosion in Turkey than an accident, and the public is pointing the finger right at Prime Minister Erdogan. Why?

It is more than the fact that more than 300 miners are dead. The opposition parties had united to present a demand that mines be more closely inspected. Two weeks ago the governing party defeated the proposed measure. At the very least, the timing is bad for the governing party. But there's more.  The minister of mines had stood at that mine 9 months ago, declaring how safe the mines were compared to other countries (and despite a horrific safety record). Turkish mines had gone through a  government-led privatization, which cut costs through low-wage job replacement and in-house equipment production (the failure of which caused the fire).

It will be interesting to see how Erdogan gets out of this one.

The lesson: the magic of the marketplace usually doesn't do much for safety. Without strong regulation and enforcement, people die.

Not only in Turkey.

On Immigrants

Moldova

I recommend Nicholas Kristof's article about Moldova in today's New York Times. A pretty small place under a significant threat from Russia.

Moldova, like Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, and the Baltic states, has pockets of Russians moved there while they were still part of the Soviet Union. It seems Putin wants them all back.

Not unlike the pockets of German speakers scattered across Central and Eastern Europe that Germany went after in the 30's and 40's. These Russian pockets should temper their enthusiasm for absorption into Russia. The analogous German experience didn't turn out so well.

In any event, I think this all shows that the Soviet Union was less about communism and more about Russian imperialism.

Ukraine's Aspirations

In today's New York Times, Nicholas Kristof visits the Ukrainian village his father grew up in. The people Kristof describes are like the Ukrainians I know. They just want to be a normal European country.

We can and should help.

Ukraine, Nuclear Weapons And Japan

A little over a month ago, I posted a reflection on the danger of failing to live up to the international security guarantee the nuclear powers gave to Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal.

Today's New York Times article reporting Japanese concerns over the U.S. reaction to Russian takeover of the Crimea should, therefore, come as no surprise. The article makes it clear that failure to carry out the security guarantee to Ukraine not only complicates efforts at nuclear non-proliferation, it also complicates conventional diplomacy.

It is a bit reminiscent of the inter war diplomacy of France. After World War I, France signed a guarantee to defend the independence and territorial integrity of Czechoslovakia. But France lacked a common border with Czechoslovakia and besides that, had built a vast fixed fortress (the Maginot Line) and a military designed to operate behind that line. How were they to come to the aid of Czechoslovakia if necessary?

It created a mismatch between miltary planning and diplomatic efforts. In the end, it didn't work.

I would hope we have learned something useful in the intervening eighty years.

Nikogda Ne Zabudite! Kovno, Lithuania, March 27, 1944

There are so many things done during World War II that must never be forgotten, and yet we forget. Who remembers Lidice? Nanking? Kovno?

Here is the story of the action by Germans against Jewish children in Kovno.

Russia's Paranoid Schizophrenia and The Clueless West

The West's contribution to the totally unprecedented challenge of conversion of the Soviet Union to a democratic and market-based society was, in my view, spotty at best. I say this as one who was involved in projects in Russia, Ukraine and Poland and very aware of projects in Estonia, Rumania and Moldova.

I also deplored at the time the unrestrained triumphalism that proclaimed: "we're number one - nyah, nyah nyah, we won the cold war." That wasn't helpful. Especially in places like Ukraine where people, especially elderly pensioners, were suddenly plunged into poverty by policies we pushed. So-called "shock therapy," for example, was pushed by policy makers who had no idea what the previous seventy years had put into place. The idea of "privatizing" a complex industrial establishment by issuing coupons to the citizens so they could buy shares in crumbling enterprises was a disaster in the making.

One of the most disappointing viewpoints at the time was that of USAID, whose bureaucracy was certain we knew what to do because, after all, we had privatized railroads and coal mines in the UK under Thatcher, tin mines in Bolivia and such like. They were, in short, clueless.

The folks the big six accounting firms sent out to do this gargantuan task were, for the most part, recent MBA's who didn't speak any local language and who were ignorant of the context. Bright, energetic, but ignorant.

We could have done better. Germany did do better. The Germans managed the conversion of East Germany not perfectly, but well enough. One reason Estonia is doing pretty well these days is that the Germans managed that conversion. Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary had the advantage of pre-war experience in a market-based system.

Not only did the people we sent not have a background in Soviet economics, they had no background in Western Europe. They thought the American Way was the Only Way.

Let's do better next time.

I've been reading the news from Ukraine with dismay.

Didn't we win the cold war? Didn't we do away with Communism? Didn't George W. Bush look into Putin's soul and see someone we can do business with?

The truth is, our cold war conflict with the Soviet Union had little to do with Communism except in the minds of our own paranoid capitalists. In fact, in the opinion of the last Prime Minister of Russia before the October (Bolshevik) revolution, the Soviet Union didn't have a socialist or communist system at all - it was a case of State capitalism.

Anyhow, I wish the Ukrainians well. I have probably read more articles on the developing crisis than most Americans. I have collected links to a number of articles, mostly from the NY Times, but also from other sources. Please take your time and read them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/opinion/trudolyubov-putins-honest-brokers.html?hp&rref=opinion

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/opinion/mccain-a-return-to-us-realism.html?action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=article

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/business/crimea-through-a-game-theory-lens.html?ref=international

http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar/04/opinion/la-oe-walker-ukraine-nato-expansion-20140304

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/14/opinion/getting-ukraine-wrong.html?action=click&module=Search&region=searchResults%230&version=&url=http%3A%2F%2Fquery.nytimes.com%2Fsearch%2Fsitesearch%2F%3Faction%3Dclick%26region%3DMasthead%26pgtype%3DHomepage%26module%3DSearchSubmit%26contentCollection%3DHomepage%26t%3Dqry347%23%2Fukraine%2Bwest%2Bmistakes%2F

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2014/03/24/140324ta_talk_surowiecki

Why Is Ukraine's Economy So Fouled Up?

Justin Fox in Harvard Business Review has an interesting article on Ukraine's economy. Why is it so bad? In a nutshell - rampant corruption.

Scenes Of Kiev, 1997

In 1997, I took a couple of business trips to Kiev. I was working on a USAID contract to assist in privatization of Ukrainian real estate. Not a simple matter. But I was able to see some of the city.

Ukraine National Day 1997- Band Played Only Sousa Marches

Maidan Square

Fountain In Maidan Square

Column In Maidan Square

Lenin

Musician On Cathedral Grounds

Ukraine's Memorandum of 1994 Agreeing to Give Up Nuclear Weapons In Return For Security Guarantee

Here is the agreement of 1994 whereby Ukraine gave up her nuclear weapons in return for a security guarantee.

Russian occupation of Crimea clearly violates that agreement.