Showing posts with label international. Show all posts
Showing posts with label international. Show all posts

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Ukraine And Crimea: Iran, North Korea, Iraq And Syria Watching

Our leaders don't seem to have figured it out yet (though maybe they have) - if we (US, Germany, Great Britain, and France) don't keep Russia from dismembering Ukraine, it will become very much harder to persuade non-nuclear and near-nuclear powers to refrain from developing nuclear weapons.

How does that work?

In 1992, as the Soviet Union broke up, we persuaded Soviet successor states to return nuclear weapons in their custody to Russia for dismantling. In 1992, Ukraine had the third largest nuclear stockpile in the world - almost 2,000 warheads. In 1994, after an international agreement, Ukraine began shipping warheads to Russia for dismantling. By late 1996, the last warhead had been shipped to Russia.

In return, Ukraine was given solemn international guarantees that the major countries (plus Russia) would guarantee their sovereignty and territorial integrity. If Russia dismembers Ukraine, the lesson will be clear - the great powers leave nuclear states alone (e.g. Israel and Pakistan) and don't touch states with their own nuclear weapons. But non-nuclear states: resist great powers at your own risk.

If that happens, you can kiss non-proliferation good-bye.

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Sochi And The Cherkassy

Circassia: I just learned where the Circassian homeland is. It is the area in the North Caucasus near the shore of the Black Sea. Sochi is the town Circassians consider their traditional capital. Circassians were expelled from the region by Russians after their defeat in battle in 1864. Today's Olympic village at Sochi is built on the site of mass graves of Circassians who died in that battle. Many survivors dispersed to other locations in the Ottoman Empire. For details of this early ethnic cleansing, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherkessia

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Ukraine Tragedy

Make no mistake about it. The violence in Kiev we saw on TV was orchestrated in Moscow. Or perhaps in Sochi.

The map below depicts the main ethnic divisions in Ukraine. Kiev is the pink circle along the Dnieper River, surrounded by red. The pink shows the area of ethnic Ukrainians who predominantly speak Ukrainian and the red mostly speak Ukrainian. In this case, "mostly" is more than "predominantly." Russian speaking Ukrainians are shown in yellow and white. Russians dominate the Crimea (brown) and the heavy industrial  and coal mining area of the Donets Basin (brown and yellow hatched area).

File:Ethnolingusitic map of ukraine.png

 It is plain that Russia sees the Donbas as important, and does not want to cede control to the West.






http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Donbass_economic.jpg

This may seem like a return of Soviet cold war thinking.

Not exactly.

It is a return of Russian Imperial thinking. Did you notice the design of the Russian hockey uniforms at the Olympics? It is the coat of arms of the Russian Federation.

It is also the two-headed eagle, which served as the coat of arms of the Tsarist Russian Empire from the time of Peter the Great until the Russian Revolution of 1917.

Is Vladimir Putin the new Tsar?

Imperial Russia

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

The Big Game That Matters

From early childhood, we Americans are conditioned to believe the most important human events are the big game. Athletic contests define us. What are our loyalties? Red Sox or Yankees? Giants or Dodgers? Redskins or Cowboys? UNC or Duke?

A little over a week ago the Big Game was a Super Bowl that wasn't very (super, that is). This week and next the Big Game is the Winter Olympics at Sochi in Russia.

Much as we enjoy the spectacle of these events, hang on every slip of a ski or skate, wince at every stumble or fall, once the spectacle is over, we should remember that nothing in the real world has changed. People still die in Syria and Afghanistan and Darfur, there is no peace in the Middle East. And nothing has made lives better for human beings anywhere, including here in America.

Six hundred forty-two miles North West of Sochi, in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, a drama is playing out that could change the lives of people living there and the fates of nations. The drama gets little press here, but at stake is the future of Ukraine as a European country. Will Ukraine join Europe or be captured in the orbit of a resurgent Russia?

Two decades ago, not long after the Soviet Union broke up, I met a dozen or so Ukrainian judges at a bar in Georgetown, District of Columbia. They were in this country to study our legal system, including some pretty esoteric issues of corporate law. They were interested to learn that I was vice president of a limited liability corporation. They had just learned about that legal structure.

After a few beers, they made it clear that their aspiration was for Ukraine to become a "normal European country." I found the same sentiment when I visited Kiev a few years later. It was as though the disaster at Chernobyl had broken a dam, releasing a vast reservoir of disdain and resentment at not only the former Soviet Union but also at Russia.

The story may seem complicated. The characters have funny-sounding names like a Dostoevsky novel.  Here is one account of what is going on and why it is happening.

This is an actual Big Game - and the outcome does matter.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

From Prisoner To Head Of State

The funeral of Nelson Mandela extolled the virtues of a man who spent years in prison and later became his county's head of state.

Not only that, Mandela presided over a peaceful transition.

There have been few such great men in recent history, but there have been others. Last Sunday I posted a link to an article about the president of Uruguay, a former Tupamaro guerrilla, who spent years in prison.

Yesterday's New York Times published an article about Vaclav Havel, dissident writer and playright during the communist period of Czech history, who spent years in prison and became four-term president of the Czech Republic. Havel was a powerful voice for democracy. He should be remembered as another powerful advocate for his people.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Meanwhile, Just Outside Montevideo, A Frugal President

Jose Mujica, president of Uruguay, leads with no frills.

"If anyone could claim to be leading by example in an age of austerity, it is José Mujica, Uruguay's president, who has forsworn a state palace in favour of a farmhouse, donates the vast bulk of his salary to social projects, flies economy class and drives an old Volkswagen Beetle." The Guardian.

This is a man and a country we know little about. Maybe we should change that. Here is a beginning.

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Seventy Years Ago: FDR Aboard USS Iowa Enroute Teheran

We last left the president sailing aboard USS Iowa on November 14th, 1943, on his way to Teheran. To bring readers up to date, here are the daily logs of the president's activities:

November 20th, 1943;
November 21st;
November 22nd;
November 23rd;
November 24th;
November 25th;
November 26th;
November 27th;
November 28th;
November 29th;
November 30th;
December 1st;
December 2d;
December 3rd;
December 4th;
December 5th;
December 6th;
December 7th;
December 8th;
December 9th;
December 10th;
December 11th;
December 12th;
December 13th;
December 14th;
December 15th;
December 16th;
December 17th.

My comments:
FDR's travel to Teheran and participation in tense conferences in Cairo and Teheran was far from a pleasure cruise. This was hard work, and would have challenged even much younger men in better physical condition. A little more than a year after completing the Teheran conference, once again FDR would make another transatlantic voyage through the war zone, this time to Malta and to the war-ravaged Crimea for another conference with Churchill and Stalin. FDR left Washington January 23rd, 1945 and returned February 28th. The following day, March 1st, the president addressed a joint session of Congress, reporting on the Yalta conference. He died six weeks later during a visit to Warm Springs, GA.


Friday, December 13, 2013

Does History Repeat Itself Or Just Rhyme?

Mark Twain is said to have observed that history doesn't repeat itself - but it does rhyme.

Many of us read history not only for entertainment, but also in hopes of learning useful lessons about our own time and place. We seek to uncover history's lessons.

Those purported lessons are brought to our attention by journalists, political figures and academics on major anniversaries of important events.

One such event is the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire on June 28, 1914 by Gavrilo Princip, a Serbian nationalist in the town of Sarajevo. That was a shot not only heard round the world, but one that has reverberated now for an entire century.

Margaret MacMillan, professor of history at Oxford, University, has contributed an essay for the Brookings Institution examining the lessons of that event and the ensuing war.

I have read many of the diplomatic papers leading up to the war, tramped across the battlefields and pondered the issue of "war guilt" as it was called. After the 1918 armistice and collapse of the German government, the Western Allies insisted on assigning all of the guilt for the war on Germany.

I have concluded that no European power was without guilt. Nor was any power imbued with great resources of wisdom.

But the guilt at the outset plainly belongs to Serbia.

Professor MacMillan makes the case in her essay that the times in 1914 were much like our own.

We should read it as a cautionary tale.

But read it!

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Seventy-Two Years Ago: Pearl Harbor And Japanese Politics

Today's New York Times prints an op-ed article by historian Eri Hotta addressing similarities and differences between today's Japan and that of seventy-two years ago. Her article is very much worth reading. I also look forward to reading her book: Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy.

Japan in 1941 was not a military dictatorship or a totalitarian regime, and it never became one. Neither was it a democracy. It was, instead, a society built on strong networks of obligation, with decision making by consensus rather than by majority vote. The persistent belief that Japan in 1941 was a military dictatorship grows out of a deep misunderstanding of the way Japanese society worked. Ruth Benedict's wartime study of Japanese society, The Crysanthemum And The Sword, might have deepened our understanding, but it came out too late and has never informed our retrospective understanding of events leading to war. I look forward to reading Ms. Hotta's two books on the period.

 
 




Thursday, October 3, 2013

German Elections

Interesting article in Atlantic about German elections. It describes a very different form of democracy. I think it has great advantages over ours. Germany's system is one form of proportional representation, where the voters vote for the party whose candidates they wish to see in office. It isn't about individual candidates. Parties select their own candidate list. The number of candidates from each party who win office in parliament depends on how many votes each party receives. Those candidates higher on their party's list have a higher probability of gaining office.

I think there are many advantages to the proportional representation system. One advantage is that it almost inevitably creates more than two parties and to form a government requires forming a coalition. To some extent, parties have to make nice with each other.

Here is a link to the article.

There are differences from country to country in the details, but proportional representation systems have much in common. The political dynamics are very different from "first past the post" or "winner take all" systems like ours.

Monday, September 9, 2013

Syria And Chemical Weapons - Light At End Of Tunnel?

Today's news seems somewhat hopeful.

It isn't clear how it came about, but it sounds like Secretary of State Kerry may have proposed a settlement believing Syria would refuse - and now both Syria and Russia are jumping through hoops as fast as they can to accept it.

The proposal that Syria turn over its chemical weapons to international control is a good one. It was made even better when Russia suggested the weapons be destroyed under international supervision.

Doing this would resolve a potential dilemma: should there be a strike against Syria's chemical weapons depots? On the one hand, that would be the most justifiable target. On the other hand, attacking the chemical weapons would likely release some very nasty stuff into the Syrian countryside - possibly causing innocent deaths.

President Theodore Roosevelt is often quoted as advising that we "speak softly and carry a big stick."

George W. Bush's neocons seemed to think that meant "shout loudly and hit people over the head with the stick."

Sometimes diplomacy can accomplish wonders, but it is hard work best accomplished behind the scenes.

I hope that's what's going on here.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

What About Syria?

The subject of Syria keeps coming up at The Bean. "What do I think?"

I shy away from the subject. The truth is, I know a lot about warfare (it's my profession), but I don't know much about Syria.

I also know a lot about diplomacy, international law and strategic planning. But what I know of these subjects leads me to be cautious. Especially when the action under review is to become involved in someone else's civil war. Danger!

I also don't think much of the idea that we can just bomb a country into submission without some form of "boots on the ground." Or at least the threat of "boots on the ground." * And be sceptical of "regime change" as a goal. We're still suffering the aftereffects of our ill-considered "successful" operation of sixty years ago, where we caused the overthrow of Mohammad Mossadegh, the democratically elected, progressive prime minister of Iran.

We saved Iranian oil for British Petroleum, but at what cost?

Worth thinking about.

 *The only case that comes to mind of a successful military campaign won almost entirely by bombing is that of Kosovo in 1999.


Sunday, July 28, 2013

Seventy Years Ago: Mussolini Falls

July 28, 1943: Franklin Delano Roosevelt delivers a fireside chat on the fall of Mussolini. And what a chat it was!

No American who heard FDR speak on that day could fail to note that we were all in this together, and we were winning!

Not many leaders have ever had the skill of FDR at putting events into perspective.

Read the whole, inspiring fireside chat here.

And celebrate with a cup of unrationed coffee.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Across The Steppes Of Central Asia

As I read this article, in my mind I heard the strains of Borodin's music.

Would you believe a seven thousand mile journey of freight trains carrying high value cargo from China west across Central Asia through Russia and Poland to Holland? It's happening. The economics of it are fascinating, but also what it tells us about developments in the heart of Asia.

It all began in the late nineteenth century with the Trans Siberian Railway. Propelled by long-forgotten wars.

Now the sinews of commerce are tying the region together in unimaginable ways.

And we knew nothing about it.

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Vacation Comparison

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has put together a graph showing how advanced economies compare on paid vacation days.

Here's the graph:

http://www.tonytharp.com/sites/default/files/DeadLast.jpg

On this Sunday morning, having listened to what Calvin Trillin calls the "Sabbath gasbags," I am reminded of Jesus' words when he was admonished for healing someone on the Sabbath: "The Sabbath is made for man, not man for the Sabbath."

Friday, May 31, 2013

Economists And Politics

Today's New York Times tells the story of the political travails of Russian economist Sergei Guriev. Guriev, a prominent Russian economist who frequently advised former President Medvedev, apparently incited suspicions of Russian authorities when he co-authored a report by experts critical of the prosecution of Russian oil tycoon Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky.

Khodorkovsky, who acquired great oil wealth after the breakup of the Soviet Union, has been imprisoned since 2005 and is being investigated for further charges. Khodorkovsky apparently made the mistake of directly challenging Putin. He has now joined a long line of Russians and Soviet citizens who ran afoul of authorities, back to the time of Ivan Grozny (Ivan the Terrible) and even earlier in Russian history.

In Soviet years, the capture and prosecution of Khodorkovsky would certainly have counted as one of the most significant "show" trials.

Economist Guriev, very well connected in Russian political circles, especially the entourage of Medvedev, may have made an error in judgement by criticizing any aspect of the trial.

The phenomenon of economists getting entangled too closely with politics is not only a problem in Russia. My economics professor in graduate school, George N. Halm, made the error of giving the Nazi regime advice they didn't want to hear right after Hitler came to power. Professor Halm deemed it advisable to flee to the United States, where he became a noted professor of economics.

Guriev has found refuge at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, a university in Paris. As the French say, "plus ca change, plus c'est le meme chose."

To paraphrase a thought from Tolstoy, "Authoritarian regimes are all alike; each free country is free in its own way."

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Germany Beginning To Accept Need For Economic Stimulus

News from Germany is that the German government has decided they have to do something to have an economic stimulus in the periphery of the Euro zone. Spiegel On Line has some details.

Nothing in the report suggests that the program will be big enough to do much good.

It still looks to me like the Euro has been a bad idea, poorly executed. There is not an adequate mechanism to move funds from prosperous to less prosperous areas. The distress in the periphery was not caused by government spending, but by banks. In many cases, German banks.

This is not going to work, but it may drag out for a long time as the European Central Bank tries a series of what will prove to be inadequate measures.

I could be wrong - but I don't think so.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Wisdom From The Great Depression

Next year, the University of California Press is bringing out a new edition of the late economist Charles Kindleberger's influential and illuminating book analyzing the great depression.

In World in Depression, 1929-1939, published in 1973, Kindleberger examined the history of international trade, finance and macroeconomics during the heart of the Great Depression. Anyone with an interest in such matters should welcome the new edition.

Kindleberger would doubtless, were he alive today, notice the alarming parallels between the decade about which he wrote and our own times. The similarities are not reassuring.

Economic historians Brad DeLong and Barry Eichengreen have written a new preface to the book. DeLong has posted the it on his blog here. The new introduction is well worth reading in its own right. Anyone reading the it who also follows international events cannot help but be concerned.

As one might expect of economists, the new preface focuses on economic processes.

I could not help but reflect, however, on the interaction between the political world of 1929-1939 and the economic world. Kindleberger focuses on the lack of international economic leadership. There was at least an equal failure of leadership in the sphere of international political relations.

I hope we are not in for a rerun.

Read the new preface!

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Pope Francis' Family

New information in today's on line edition of The Telegraph (UK).

Information provided by Mrs. Berdoglio, Francis' sole surviving sibling, who lives in Buenos Aires, is that their parents immigrated from Italy to Argentina to escape the fascist regime of Benito Mussolini. Mrs. Bergoglio, a divorced mother of two adult sons, emphasized that stories suggesting her brother's complicity in actions by the Argentine military junta are wide of the mark. Such complicity, she emphasizes, would have been a betrayal of their father's lessons to the family.

The father, Mario Bergoglio, had been a railroad worker in Northern Italy in the Piedmont region before emigrating to Argentina in the 1920's.

Monday, March 18, 2013

1968: Perfidy In DC

Lyndon Johnson had the goods on Richard Nixon. But he couldn't use it.

The Democratic Party convention in Chicago was a disaster. Johnson even considered appearing at the last minute and putting his name forward for nomination.

Bad idea.

Peace talks were going on in Paris, and North Vietnam had made a promising offer.

Richard Nixon feared that prospects for peace would scuttle his campaign. He sent Anna Chennault as his intermediary with the South Vietnamese ambassador, pleading with them to put off negotiations and wait for a better deal after the election.

The FBI bugged Chennault and the National Security Agency monitored the Ambassador's communications with Saigon.

Johnson knew what was going on. In private he called it treason. But he couldn't make it public without revealing the monitoring. It's generally considered bad form to bug embassies and read ambassadorial communications - and to reveal it in public.

Of course, it's even worse form not to monitor and to get caught flat footed.

So Johnson kept his mouth shut in public.

Nixon won by less than 1%. Had Nixon's perfidy become public, he may well have lost by a landslide.

Here is the story. All captured on Lyndon Johnson's White House tapes.

It wouldn't be the last time a presidential candidate meddled in international negotiations to the detriment of national interests. It may well have been the last time such actions were so clearly documented.