Что Делать? What To Do?

Что Делать? Is the title of one of Lenin's books. "What is to be done?" is one way to translate the phrase. I like the simpler and more direct "what to do?"

I offer the following list of things to do:

I: Military

1. What Russia has done in Ukraine is an act of war. Recognize Russia's belligerent status. Ask Turkey to close the Turkish Straits to transit by Russian warships under the Montreux Convention. [By the way, we have to ask politely, since we never adhered to the convention and therefore do not have the rights of a signatory. Why not initiate discussion with Turkey to seek status as a signatory?]

2. While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, she has been granted membership in the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. Let's send an allied mission to Ukraine to assess their defense needs.

3. Reactivate discussions with Ukraine concerning transfer of warships from our reserve fleet to Ukraine. Include mine warfare vessels in the discussion.

4. Investigate modernizing Ukraine's Air Force and Air Defense.

5. Schedule friendly warship visits to NATO allies in the Black Sea: Bulgaria and Romania, and possibly Ukraine.

II. Economics

1. Don't threaten to withdraw from the G-8 conference in Sochi - withdraw! Now! Withdrawing from a conference may sound like a weak sanction. Not nearly as weak as threatening someday to think about doing it. Just do it!

2. Freeze Russian assets! Now! We can always unfreeze them later;

Getting Ukraine's economic house in order is probably the most urgent task. But it must be done in a way that improves the lives of ordinary citizens and builds Ukraine's productive capacity for the future. Here are some ideas set forth by economists Gorodnichenko and Roland:

"Although it is only a few days after the successful February revolution and the country is still in a state of flux, a new government is needed to deal with emergency economic measures.

• The country is days away from facing a $2bln payment to international bondholders.

• The provisional Ukrainian government does not have the necessary legitimacy to make all the changes demanded by the Maidan protesters.

The new government is inheriting a political system and a government administration that are in need of fundamental change. Because of this weakness, the new government needs to focus on a set of emergency measures that are both urgent and immediately feasible. In the long run, establishing a well-functioning democracy necessitates a new constitution and a popular referendum on a constitution, but that takes time. What must be done now? What needs to be changed in the long run?

• First, the Ukrainian currency Hryvnya should be switched to a float and it should depreciate significantly.

The current-account deficit (about 10% of GDP) is clearly unsustainable. This should stimulate the economy and preserve precious foreign currency reserves. Barriers to export should be removed.

• Second, the banking system badly needs liquidity and capital.

Raising these in the international financial market has become nearly impossible. The government should inject capital (for example, use a program similar to the TARP in the US). The Central bank should provide liquidity. Some form of temporary capital controls and temporary limits on withdraws of deposits appear unavoidable given the current ongoing bank run (deposits fell by a third in the last few weeks and are falling further on a daily basis). Banks should “reopen” after the infusions of capital and liquidity.

Third, the government must immediately present a plan to address fiscal imbalances over a period of several years.

• 
  

Given the deeply depressed state of the economy, now is not the time to implement deep budget cuts. But fiscal authorities can still lay out a budget plan for a gradual decline in deficits to restore confidence in the long-run solvency of the Ukrainian government. Stricter monitoring of spending to minimize corruption and waste of public functions must be implemented immediately to make the eventual fiscal consolidation less painful and restore confidence.

• Fourth, external payments are a heavy burden on the collapsing Ukrainian economy.

One step is to bring in the IMF as well as other donors (EU, USA, etc.) to bridge the short-term gap in foreign currency reserves.

These funds are essential to avoid a drastic immediate fiscal contraction in the immediate future. They are necessary to enable authorities to inject capital into Ukrainian banks. The amount of required support is likely to be in tens of billions of dollars. Moreover, a restructuring of some of Ukrainian debt is necessary to avoid outright default.

• Most of Ukraine’s external debt was accumulated under the previous corrupt regime.
• The new leaders have little moral obligation to commit to reimburse that debt, and creditors have little moral standing to demand repayment: they knew who they lent to.

On the other hand, the amount of Ukraine’s external debt is not that high, and costs of defaulting – exclusion of Ukraine from the bond market for five years or so – are not-zero.

Ukraine badly needs immediate breathing space to introduce reforms and relieve the burden imposed by the Yanukovych government. The main risk here is that the absence of primary fiscal surplus makes an immediate fiscal consolidation or monetization of spending unavoidable in case of outright default. But Ukraine had a nearly zero inflation rate for two year. Some inflation could be a stimulating force if it can be kept under control later on. The new provisional government of Ukraine must weigh the costs and benefits of these scenarios. But right now, it should not exclude the option of default if external support is not coming. An external default would then not alienate Ukraine from the international community, despite the short run disorder it might create.

• Fifth, a possible trade war with Russia and increased energy prices are looming.

Ukraine should prepare to obtain energy from alternative sources (including reversing the gas flow to get energy from the West).

• Sixth, some people and businesses will be hit very hard.

The government should prepare short-term relief for all those likely to fall into temporary poverty: guaranteed minimum food, heating, electricity and water, all supplied on a lump-sum basis.

• Last and not least, the EU and Ukraine should sign the association agreement.

This will anchor economic and political forces toward reforms and growth as well as provide credibility to the new government.

These emergency economic  measures will not address the need for fundamental long-term change. Once there is a legitimate government, elected on the basis of a Constitution approved by referendum, fundamental long term reforms can be implemented. These include a fundamental overhaul of government administration to root out corruption, fiscal decentralization to give more power to the regions, regulatory reform to break up monopolies, opening up entry to foreign firms and small private business, and securing a stable supply of energy by exploiting Ukraine’s large reserve of shale gas.

The need to act fast now does not mean one should not also begin in the necessary process of constitutional change. The people of Ukraine demand it. Ukraine had two revolutions in the last ten years. Both expressed people’s discontent with the status quo and aspirations for democracy. It needs to build a consolidated and participatory democracy. There will likely not be a third chance."

III Political

- Hold elections soon, with credible international observers.

- Convene a constituent assembly and  draft and ratify a new constitution as soon as possible.

Lots to do and not much time to do it.

The Thoughts Of John Paul Jones

Generations of Naval Academy Midshipmen were forced to memorize the thoughts of John Paul Jones on the attributes of a naval officer:

“It is by no means enough that an officer of the navy should be a capable mariner. He must be that, of course, but also a great deal more. He should be as well a gentleman of liberal education, refined manners, punctilious courtesy, and the nicest sense of personal honor. He should be the soul of tact, patience, justice, firmness, and charity. No meritorious act of a subordinate should escape his attention or be left to pass without its reward, even if the reward is only a word of approval. Conversely, he should not be blind to a single fault in any subordinate, though, at the same time, he should be quick and unfailing to distinguish error from malice, thoughtlessness from incompetency, and well-meant shortcoming from heedless or stupid blunder. In one word, every commander should keep constantly before him the great truth, that to be well obeyed, he must be perfectly esteemed.”

"To be well obeyed, he must be perfectly esteemed!"

In fact, the quoted passage reflects the thoughts of Augustus C. Buell, in his 1900 biography of John Paul Jones, who thought it represented what Jones would have said on the subject.

It doesn't matter. The quote represents sound advice on leadership in any walk of life.

Bradley Flinn, August 4, 1969- December 20, 2013

Last night Bradley Flinn, owner of S/V the Shire, died at Pitt Memorial Hospital.

Those who knew him knew a very nice man. He was a Navy veteran of the Gulf War, who lived on his pink-hulled boat. He was a libertarian, but not as doctrinaire as some. I enjoyed talking to him. He had a wide range of interests. In an earlier age, he might have been called an autodidact. But that could apply to anyone with an inquiring mind.

We knew he had health problems, but didn't know how serious.

Over the years, he had anchored his boat past the bridge over Smith Creek and rowed into Oriental every day. When he developed a rotator cuff injury, he had to move the boat closer to the dinghy dock. He planned to move back up the creek, but for a long time the water level was too high. By the time the level went down, he was unable to make the move for other reasons.

Brad was a bit eccentric. Completely within the normal range for the Town of Oriental.

Rest in Peace.

Seventy Years Ago: FDR Aboard USS Iowa Enroute Teheran

We last left the president sailing aboard USS Iowa on November 14th, 1943, on his way to Teheran. To bring readers up to date, here are the daily logs of the president's activities:

November 20th, 1943;
November 21st;
November 22nd;
November 23rd;
November 24th;
November 25th;
November 26th;
November 27th;
November 28th;
November 29th;
November 30th;
December 1st;
December 2d;
December 3rd;
December 4th;
December 5th;
December 6th;
December 7th;
December 8th;
December 9th;
December 10th;
December 11th;
December 12th;
December 13th;
December 14th;
December 15th;
December 16th;
December 17th.

My comments:
FDR's travel to Teheran and participation in tense conferences in Cairo and Teheran was far from a pleasure cruise. This was hard work, and would have challenged even much younger men in better physical condition. A little more than a year after completing the Teheran conference, once again FDR would make another transatlantic voyage through the war zone, this time to Malta and to the war-ravaged Crimea for another conference with Churchill and Stalin. FDR left Washington January 23rd, 1945 and returned February 28th. The following day, March 1st, the president addressed a joint session of Congress, reporting on the Yalta conference. He died six weeks later during a visit to Warm Springs, GA.

Does History Repeat Itself Or Just Rhyme?

Mark Twain is said to have observed that history doesn't repeat itself - but it does rhyme.

Many of us read history not only for entertainment, but also in hopes of learning useful lessons about our own time and place. We seek to uncover history's lessons.

Those purported lessons are brought to our attention by journalists, political figures and academics on major anniversaries of important events.

One such event is the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire on June 28, 1914 by Gavrilo Princip, a Serbian nationalist in the town of Sarajevo. That was a shot not only heard round the world, but one that has reverberated now for an entire century.

Margaret MacMillan, professor of history at Oxford, University, has contributed an essay for the Brookings Institution examining the lessons of that event and the ensuing war.

I have read many of the diplomatic papers leading up to the war, tramped across the battlefields and pondered the issue of "war guilt" as it was called. After the 1918 armistice and collapse of the German government, the Western Allies insisted on assigning all of the guilt for the war on Germany.

I have concluded that no European power was without guilt. Nor was any power imbued with great resources of wisdom.

But the guilt at the outset plainly belongs to Serbia.

Professor MacMillan makes the case in her essay that the times in 1914 were much like our own.

We should read it as a cautionary tale.

But read it!

Seventy-Two Years Ago: Pearl Harbor And Japanese Politics

Today's New York Times prints an op-ed article by historian Eri Hotta addressing similarities and differences between today's Japan and that of seventy-two years ago. Her article is very much worth reading. I also look forward to reading her book: Japan 1941: Countdown to Infamy.

Japan in 1941 was not a military dictatorship or a totalitarian regime, and it never became one. Neither was it a democracy. It was, instead, a society built on strong networks of obligation, with decision making by consensus rather than by majority vote. The persistent belief that Japan in 1941 was a military dictatorship grows out of a deep misunderstanding of the way Japanese society worked. Ruth Benedict's wartime study of Japanese society, The Crysanthemum And The Sword, might have deepened our understanding, but it came out too late and has never informed our retrospective understanding of events leading to war. I look forward to reading Ms. Hotta's two books on the period.

 
 

Seventy Years Ago: Thirty-One Knot Burke

Thanksgiving eve, 1943, Admiral Halsey ordered Captain Arleigh Burke, Commander Destroyer Squadron 23, with five Fletcher class destroyers, to intercept a Japanese squadron of five destroyers near the island of Buka in the Northern Solomons. One of Burke's destroyers had a minor engineering problem, previously reported, which limited speed to 30 knots instead of the normal top speed of 38 knots. Captain Burke reported to Halsey that he was proceeding at 31 knots. Halsey directed him to proceed to point Uncle: “THIRTY-ONE KNOT BURKE GET ATHWART THE BUKA-RABUL EVACUATION LINE ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF BUKA….”

Thus was Burke's "Little Beaver" squadron dispatched to the Battle of Cape St. George and into US Naval history.

A little more than a year earlier, near Guadalcanal, the night of August 8-9, 1942, Japanese Admiral Mikawa hastily assembled a force of seven cruisers and a destroyer near Buka to counter the US/Australian invasion force of eight cruisers and fifteen destroyers at Guadalcanal. Mikawa's force lacked radar, while the allied cruisers and several of the destroyers had radar. But the Japanese had trained for night combat and they were equipped with the world's best torpedoes. US torpedoes had not been adequately tested and proved unreliable and ineffective.

When the clash began, it took about a half hour for the Japanese to sink four allied heavy cruisers, damage two destroyers and kill over a thousand allied sailors. Japan escaped with minimal damage and a loss of 58 sailors.

It was the US Navy's worst defeat ever in a sea battle.

Captain Burke's destroyers were all equipped with radar and knew how to use it at night. The problems with American torpedoes had been fixed. By late 1943, the crews were battle-experienced and, more important, the officers knew how to effectively use the new equipment.

Burke's squadron found the Japanese, sank three destroyers and damaged another, pursuing them in a long stern chase. Burke withdrew before daylight, as the squadron was well inside range of Japanese land based aircraft.

When Arleigh Burke later became Chief of Naval Operations, he wrote a personal, characteristically modest, account of the Battle of Cape St. George for Parade magazine here.

Seventy Years Ago: At Sea Off Tarawa - USS Liscome Bay

From initial action until the end of the battle, it took America's forces 76 hours to conquer the tiny but well-fortified island of Betio at Tarawa. Over 4,500 Japanese perished in the assault. 1,696 Americans lost their lives. Forty percent of Americans killed died the morning of November 23, when a Japanese submarine launched a torpedo, striking Liscome Bay near its store of aircraft ordinance. She sank in 20 minutes, carrying 687 officers and men with her.

The war in the Pacific was still very much a naval war.

Seventy Years Ago: 20-22 November 1943 - Marines On Tarawa

The assault on the island of Betio, Tarawa Atoll, began November 20. Betio, in the Gilberts, was to be a stepping stone to the Marianas, from which new B-29 heavy bombers could attack Japan.

Rear Admiral Tomaniri Sichero, an experienced engineer, had nine months to build elaborate defensive works. He was replaced in command by an experienced combat officer, RADM Keiji Shibazaki. The Japanese had over 4,500 troops in carefully prepared positions.

Attacking forces were the largest invasion force yet assembled in the Pacific: 17 aircraft carriers, 12 battleships, 8 heavy cruisers, 4 light cruisers, 66 destroyers and 36 transport ships with 35,000 troops.

After a heavy bombardment of the island by aircraft and guns, things began to fall apart when the Higgins boats approached the landing beaches. Tidal predictions were inaccurate and the boats grounded well offshore. Withering Japanese fire killed many marines as they struggled in to the beaches.

It took three days to win the battle for Betio.

Here is an account of the struggle.

The Difficult Is Done At Once; The Impossible Takes A Bit Longer

Some say it was the US Army Corps of Engineers during World War II who adopted the slogan, "the difficult is done at once - the impossible takes a bit longer."

I can't vouch for that, but I can testify that the slogan accurately expresses the attitude of those who went off to that war.

No task is truly impossible.

My father's outfit, the 27th Air Depot Group, was set down in the jungle outside of Port Moresby, New Guinea, with a few bulldozers and a dismantled sawmill. That was in December, 1942. They built their own hangers, barracks, roads, runways, washing machines, and anything else they needed. At the end of the supply line, they dismantled damaged aircraft for spare parts and rebuilt, redesigned and improved the aircraft in their custody.

In October and November of 1943, they mounted sustained air attacks on the main Japanese base at Rabaul. Operation Cartwheel, it was called.

The original goal was to capture the base at Rabaul. By August, the concept changed into a plan to neutralize and bypass Rabaul. By the end of November, General Kenney's 5th Air Force operating from New Guinea and Admiral Halsey's aircraft carriers had neutralized Japanese air forces out of Rabaul.

Seventy Years Ago: November 14, 1943

November 14, 1943  

In a freak accident, President Roosevelt, Generals Marshall and Arnold, Admirals Leahy and King, plus scores of distinguished politicians, and army, naval and air force strategists came under fire while traveling to the the Tehran Conference on board the battleship Iowa. While running a torpedo drill, the US destroyer William D. Porter was targeting the Iowa's #2 magazine, a live torpedo was ejected and headed for the battleship. After maneuvering, the torpedo detonated 1200 feet aft of Iowa in her wake turbulence. When the incident was concluded, Air Force General Hap Arnold leaned over to Fleet Commander Admiral King and asked, "Tell me Ernest, does this happen often in your Navy?"

Seventy Years Ago: November 12, 1943 - USS Iowa (BB-61)

November 12, 1943, President Roosevelt and his senior advisers traveled on the President's yacht Potomac to the Norfolk area to board USS Iowa (BB-61). Destination: Teheran. Purpose: strategic meeting of Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin.

Security measures were elaborate. See the description here.

Iowa was fitted out with a bathtub in the Captain's quarters for the president's comfort. It remains aboard to this day.

This was not a peacetime cruise - German submarines and aircraft still menaced the seas.

USS Iowa - our newest, best armored and most powerful battleship, was the safest platform available for the president.

Doolittle Raiders Have Last Public Reunion

Every year since 1942, on April 18, the anniversary of the Doolittle raid on Japan by 16 B-25 bombers taking off from the pitching flight deck of USS Hornet, the survivors of the 80 aviators from the raid hold a reunion. They toast those who passed on during the previous year. Among the mementoes possessed by the surviving raiders is a bottle of fine cognac bottled in 1896, the year of General Doolittle's birth. The plan is for the last survivors to open the bottle and toast their departed comrades.

At their annual reunion this year, the four remaining survivors, all in their nineties, decided that this year's reunion was the last public reunion they will hold. Later this year, they will hold a private ceremony at which the 1896 bottle will be opened. Here is the story.

I have written about the Doolittle raid before: here and here and here and here and here. It was one of the most remarkable military operations in history and had an effect far beyond the slight damage it caused to Tokyo. It was, in fact, a game-changer for the entire Pacific war.

The eighty volunteers who pulled it off were no more remarkable than many others in our armed forces at the time of Pearl Harbor, but only trained B-25 crew members had the chance to volunteer.

They did a remarkable thing, but standing behind them were thousands of sailors, engineers, technicians and military planners who made the plan, modified the aircraft, trained the crews to take off from an aircraft carrier, land in China and get back to the US.

The aircrews got the glory, but all these men were in it together. Teamwork. And it was done with airplanes, ships, soldiers and sailors who were already in the service at the time of Pearl Harbor.

Seventy Years Ago: September 11, 1943: USS Savannah

September 11, 1943, USS Savannah (CL-42), a prewar Brooklyn class light cruiser, was hit by a German bomb while supporting our landing at Salerno. The bomb, which was dropped from high altitude, turned out to be a radio-controlled bomb, which hit the top of turret three and caused extensive damage, destroying part of the keel and killing most of the sailors in the forward part of the ship.

Here is a personal account of the event by one of the sailors aboard. Savannah's effective gunfire in support of US troops ashore figures in the movie, "Big Red One."

The photos below show the ship after the bomb hit.

The bomb killed 197 out of Savannah's 868-man crew.

Seventy Years Ago In The Pacific: August 27, 1943 At Nukufetau

Marines (2d Airdrome Battalion) and Seabees (16th Construction Battalion) occupy the atoll at Nukufetau. The purpose is to set up an air base to support offensive operations later in the year against the Gilbert and Marshall Islands. Army troops (RCT 172 of 43d Infantry Division) land on Arundel Island, Solomons, for the same purpose. 

Nukufetau (178.375E 8.064S) is an atoll in the Ellice Islands group northwest of Funafuti. It is nine miles (14 km km) long and five miles (8 km) wide. Its reef-enclosed lagoon has just two passes on the northwest, of which the larger is Teafua Pass. Deafatule Pass  to its north is narrow and tortuous. The lagoon is too shallow for large ships. Supplies, therefore, had to be brought in by landing craft from Funafuti. The largest islet, Motolalo, was swampy and heavily vegetated.

Within a month after marines and Seabees came ashore, they had built a 3500' fighter runway (ready 9 October), and later in the month completed a 6100'  bomber runway was completed later in the month.

Seventy Years Ago: Invasion Of Vella Lavella

Third Amphibious Force (Rear Admiral Theodore S. Wilkinson) lands Navy, Marine, and Army personnel at Vella Lavella, Solomons, thus by-passing enemy positions on Kolombangara, Solomons.This advanced the Solomons campaign considerably, but many naval battles were to follow.

Meanwhile, to the north, Naval task force under Commander North Pacific Force (Vice Admiral Thomas C. Kinkaid) lands U.S. Army and Canadian troops at Kiska, Aleutians. They find Kiska had been evacuated by the Japanese on 28 July 1943. Only casualties in the operation occur because of accidents or friendly fire incidents.

Seventy Years Ago: WWII In The Pacific - Bombing Kiska August 12, 1943

ALASKA (Eleventh Air Force): From Adak B-24's and B-25's fly 26 bombing, strafing, and radar and photo reconnaissance sorties over Kiska. From Amchitka P-40's, P-38's, B-24's, B-25's, and A-24s fly 70 bombing sorties over the island and are joined by B-24's, P-40's, and F-5A's flying 6 reconnaissance and photo sorties. Targets included the runway, harbor and shipping installations, army barracks, and the Rose Hill area. Lost is B-24D 42-40309.

My friend Ray Rundle, a Navy Communications Technician expert in communications intelligence then stationed on Adak, told the Army there were no more Japanese troops on the island. The Army didn't believe him. Army pilots insisted that Japanese troops remained and had fired anti aircraft weapons against Army bombing missions.

In fact, the Japanese troops had evacuated the island under cover of fog on July 28, two weeks earlier.

When the US Army invasion force stormed ashore on August fifteenth, the invaders found three dogs. US Navy Chief of Naval Operations Earnest King reported to Secretary of the Navy Frank Knox that all they found were some dogs and freshly brewed coffee. When Knox questioned the report, King responded that Japanese dogs were very clever and knew how to make coffee.

Descendants of the Japanese dogs still lived on Adak when I was stationed there twenty years later. And Ray Rundle, who had been commissioned and promoted to the rank of Navy Lieutenant, had also returned to Adak.

Seventy Years Ago: John F. Kennedy And PT-109 In The Solomons

World War II PT-boats were fast, but little faster than Japanese Destroyers. Their armament was quite limited, and their torpedoes were no match for the Japanese Long Lance. But they were small, highly maneuverable and hard to shoot at.

It was the night of August 1, 1943 when PT-109 and Japanese destroyers were maneuvering at high speed at "darken ship" (no lights showing).  By 0200 PT-109 had slowed to idling speed, using only its centerline engine in order to minimize its wake so as not to be spotted from the air.

Suddenly the crew became aware of Japanese destroyer Amagiri bearing down on them at high speed. They had only about ten seconds to light off the outboard engines (PT-109 was powered with three twelve-cylinder Packard gasoline engines). It wasn't enough.

Amagiri sliced PT-109 in two, causing it to burst into flames from its high octane AVGAS. The skipper, John Kennedy, managed to get the eleven surviving crew members to a small nearby island. Two crewmen perished in the collision.

Kennedy went for help. On August 5th, Kennedy found native Solomon Islanders, who were able to help. The full story is here.

Seventy Years Ago: Battle Of Kolombangara

The night of July 12/13, 1943, in the Solomons near Kolombangara, three light cruisers and ten destroyers of TG 36.1 (Rear Admiral Walden L. Ainsworth) engage one Japanese light cruiser (Jintsu) and five destroyers (Rear Admiral Izaki Shunji) escorting troop-carrying destroyers. Japanese torpedoes damage U.S. light cruisers Honolulu (CL-48) and St. Louis (CL-49), and New Zealand light cruiser HMNZS Leander (which has replaced the lost Helena (CL-50)). Destroyer Gwin (DD-433), damaged by torpedo, is scuttled by Ralph Talbot (DD-390). Destroyers Woodworth (DD-460) and Buchanan (DD-484) are damaged by collision. Japanese light cruiser Jintsu is sunk by cruiser gunfire and destroyer torpedo; and destroyer Yukikaze is damaged.

At this stage of the conflict, nearly two years into the war with Japan,The US Navy still had no idea about the range, speed and explosive power of the Japanese 24" Long Lance torpedo, carried by all Japanese cruisers and destroyers. US forces continued to close Japanese surface ships to fire their own torpedoes, not realizing they were well within range of the Long Lance.

Cruiser Helena was lost a week earlier in the nearby battle of Kula Gulf.


A single Long Lance torpedo did this damage to the bow of USS Honolulu.

Seventy Years Ago: May 24, 1942: Admiral Doenitz Removes Submarine Force And Concedes Battle Of The Atlantic

By 1943, expansion of Allied antisubmarine force, improvement of Air operations against submarines, including aircraft operating from small escort carriers, were making life difficult for German submarines. Admiral Doenitz, the German submarine commander, explained his withdrawal of the force by improvements in Allied ASW weapons and organization. Here is his report.

Doenitz' list is incomplete. How did the Allied ASW forces know where to look for German submarines? It's a big ocean out there.

The Allies knew where to look because of their great successes in communications intelligence. They intercepted and decrypted German orders to submarines, even orders encrypted by Germany's latest Enigma machines. When Germany began changing their communications keys several times a day, cryptanalysts kept up.

They tracked submarines using the extensive Allied High Frequency Direction Finding network ("Huff-Duff"), even when the submarines began compressing the messages and sending them in "burst" transmissions.

The war was fought and won not only on the high seas and in the air, but more significantly in the back rooms of headquarters, using the black arts of cryptanalysis.