May 5, 1942: Battle Of The Coral Sea

At 08:16 on May 5, TF 17 (Yorktown) rendezvoused with TF 11 (Lexington) and TF 44 (cruisers and destroyers) 320 mi south of Guadalcanal. At about the same time, four F4F Wildcat fighter aircraft from Yorktown intercepted a large Japanese reconnaissance seaplane from the Shortland Islands and shot it down. The aircraft was unable to send a report, but when it failed to return to base the Japanese assumed that it was shot down by carrier aircraft.


Pearl Harbor notified VADM Fletcher that based on radio intelligence the Japanese planned to land troops at Port Moresby May 10 and their fleet carriers would likely be operating close to the invasion convoy. Armed with this information, Fletcher directed TF 17 to refuel from Neosho. On 6 May, he planned to take his forces north towards the Louisiades and do battle on 7 May.

In the meantime, Takagi's carrier force steamed down the east side of the Solomons throughout the day on 5 May, turned west to pass south of San Cristobal (Makira), and enter the Coral Sea. Takagi also expected to do battle on May 7.

More South Avenue Considerations

This will probably be my last post on this subject for awhile, unless something really alarming happens. 

I recommend the town board be very clear in their guidance to the town attorney.

If the central issue is, as I believe, whether the proposal by Mr. Chris Fulcher offers equivalent or improved public access to public trust waters in the town's harbor, we need to compare relevant facts. And our attorney needs to have command of all of the facts as he negotiates details.

Some issues:

Legal:

1. South Avenue was dedicated to public use of the citizens of Oriental by the principal landowner, Mr. Robert P. Midyette, in 1900 – providing public access to the water;
2. Avenue A was dedicated by Mr. Benjamin Wallace O'Neill in December, 1917 by the sale of lot 1 of the Oriental Bulkhead Improvement Company – Avenue A never led to the water;
3. The town may not sell a dedicated and accepted right of way either for money or any other valuable consideration. An exchange of ROW for title to property looks like a sale. I have said before and still believe, it would be better if Mr. Fulcher dedicates the property to the town for purposes of public access to the water than for the town to receive it in fee simple as a proprietor. It would be more clearly legal and provide better protection to the public.

Dimensions of South Avenue:

1. The South Avenue Right of Way is 60 feet wide;
2. Because of the angle at which South Avenue intersects the Raccoon Creek, the waterfront is approximately 90 feet long;
3. Because of the direction of the riparian boundaries, the width of the water to which the town owns rights is 85 feet, more or less, in a direction parallel to Mr. Fulcher's existing piers;
4. Mandatory (15 foot) CAMA buffers at the edges of the riparian area reduce the width of riparian area available for constructing piers or docks to 55 feet;
5. The parcel Mr. Fulcher proposes to donate to the town is 55 feet wide at the water's edge – he proposes both parties waive mandatory CAMA buffer: even so, with a mandatory CAMA buffer at the Toucan Grill end, that leaves only 40 buildable feet, even with the waiver.

What Can Be Built:

1. It is often asserted that we can build NOTHING on a right of way, “not even a gazebo!”
2. Not necessarily - we build stuff in rights of way all the time;
3. The rule is that we can build no permanent structure, even in unopened sections, that would prevent eventual use for ROW purposes;
4. In Town of Oriental ROWs, we plant trees, construct water mains and Sewer mains, utility poles and other encumbrances;
5. Yesterday a truck delivered a rest room facility and placed it in the ROW at Lou-Mac;
6. Other communities build shelters for bus riders, including public school students in their ROW (some shelters might even resemble gazebos);
7. Each year during Croaker Fest, large tents supported by pipe frames are installed on South Avenue near Lou-Mac Park, even involving some degree of damage to pavement;
8. During some large public events in the past, such as bicycle events, etc. organizers have placed trailers on the right of way for participants, including shower and rest room facilities.
9. In short, obstacles to providing public facilities for visitors and event participants in our ROW are not insurmountable. It might require a bit of imagination. [I am indebted to Kathy McIlheny, who gave me the trailer idea]
10. The proposed parcel is unbuildable for 50' from the water's edge Neuse River Buffer), the next 25' is in a CAMA area of environmental concern, and the last roughly 30 feet will probably be used for parking and other requirements to comply with our GMO, as well as ramps to meet ADA requirements for access to any building constructed on the property.

Advantages of The Proposed Parcel:

1. The site has been dredged and bulkheaded and a pier is under construction;
2. Sewer and water connections already exist;
   3.  Fewer building restrictions than a right of way.

Disadvantages of The Proposed Parcel:

1. Narrowness of the parcel and riparian area constrains visiting boats;
2. Some say the pier is unsuitable – too industrial for recreational boats;
3. Some say the projected pier is in the wrong place.

Conclusions:

The decision should be based on what is best for the town.

Avenue A only provides public access to Mr. Fulcher's property.

It is not correct to say that rights of way "are of no value." In coastal North Carolina, nothing is more valuable to the public than public access to the water.

Tulagi: Seventy Years Ago In The Coral Sea

May 4, 1942, US Carrier Task Force 17, under command of Rear Admiral Frank Jack Fletcher, launched 60 aircraft from USS Yorktown to attack the Japanese invasion force already landing at Tulagi in the Solomons. Yorktown's aircraft surprised the Japanese, sank one destroyer and three minesweepers and heavily damaged a number of cargo ships.

At that point, the force was about a hundred miles south of Guadalcanal. Task Force 11, with aircraft carrier USS Lexington was about 60 miles East of TF 17.  The Japanese Carrier Strike Force with carriers Zuikaku and Shōkaku, two heavy cruisers, and six destroyers that sortied from Truk on 1 May was about 350 miles north of Tulagi under command of Vice Admiral Takagi. On learning of the US attack on Tulagi, Takagi moved his carrier strike force south into the Coral Sea.

The four-day-long Battle of The Coral Sea had begun. The fate of New Guinea and Australia was in the hands of two US Carrier Task Forces.

It had been five months since Pearl Harbor.

Economics And Intuition

I was a bit puzzled by the recent observation of economist (and physicist) Noah Smith that the reason some economists advocate austerity as the solution to our present situation is not because their models say so, but because of their intuition. "Economic theories," he says, "like all scientific theories are built to be counterintuitive..."

Now Noah Smith is a bright guy, and his blog provides some of the best available commentary in his field. But I have a hard time with this particular thought.

It seems to me that the views of those economists usually identified as Keynesian are eminently intuitive. In fact, analysis of any set of numbers (which is what economists do) needs to be tethered at some point with the real world, including the world of intuition. Here, for example, is a recent article by Paul Krugman in the New York Review of Books. One can believe (as I do) that his political analysis is not sufficiently pessimistic and still accept that what he says about the economy makes sense.

Take the economic downturn; if a person loses his job, it seems intuitive to me that he will do his best to reduce spending until he gets another. If he has monthly payment obligations and family to feed, there will be limits to how much reduction in income he can accept in a new job.

If a lot of people lose jobs, a lot of people will spend less. Businesses who sell goods and services to people will make fewer sales. They will have to lay off some workers and reduce their own purchase of equipment and services.

Reduced economic activity will reduce government revenues. Government expenses for safety net programs will increase. If anything, such expenditures ameliorate the negative effect of short term unemployment on businesses. But government at state and local levels will eventually be forced to lay off employees. Which adds to the reduction of purchasing power for goods and services. Which adds to overall economic distress.

Is there anything here that goes against intuition? If so, I don't see it.

What to do?

When FDR came into office, there were no Keynesians. Keynes' General Theory wouldn't be published for four more years. Did he wait for a theory? No. He looked around him and saw a fourth of the population out of work and barely surviving. He acted on his intuition and did something about it.

He ACTED!

Classical economic theory said to do nothing.

Today we have people in that same tradition advocating austerity instead of action.

Now THAT is counterintuitive.

And it won't work.

New note as of May 5, while waiting for the Kentucky Derby:

I still don't get it. Why is it not intuitively obvious that something that may be good for an individual person or company isn't necessarily good for the economy as a whole? Unlike Lake Woebegon, neither we nor our children can all be above average. Nor can every nation have a trade surplus at the same time.

But Paul Krugman has touched on an explanation that makes some sense: it's the "personal incredulity" syndrome.  What are the advocates of austerity missing? PK puts it this way: "Mainly, I think, [they are missing] the closed-loop nature of macro[economics]. Our intuitions about how business-y stuff works come from businesses or households selling their goods or labor to an external market. In such situations spending less is a sure-fire way to reduce debt, cutting your price or your wage demand is a sure-fire way to sell more.

"But in the economy as a whole, your spending is my income and vice versa; my wage matters only in comparison to your wage; and so on. This changes everything...." which is why personal ideas of the virtue of thrift is a poor guide to achieving general national prosperity.

But I still don't get how people can be that obtuse.

South Avenue - This Isn't Personal; It's Business

Five years ago, when I first realized things were going badly awry with the town's lawsuit over South Avenue, I determined to pursue the cause as vigorously as possible. What was the cause? It was public access to public trust waters. It was also, more generally, pursuit of the Town Board's obligation to protect and defend public assets.

I was not motivated by any animosity toward Mr. Henry. I don't know Mr. Henry. Neither in the present case concerning the Town's response to Mr. Fulcher's proposal for what amounts to an exchange of routes of access to the harbor, am I motivated by either hostility or warm feelings toward Mr. Fulcher. Any such feelings are neither here nor there. A few years ago, I set forth my views about the suit here.

The bottom line now, as it was for more than a decade, is: The Board of Commissioners has a duty to protect the town’s assets. South Avenue has been a public right of way for at least ninety-five years and arguably for a hundred and twelve. It extends all the way to Raccoon Creek. The Board would be remiss if it didn’t continue to defend the public’s right of access to public waters, which has been provided by South Avenue.

We know that if we lose control over public access to the harbor in the vicinity of South Avenue and Avenue A we will never get it back. Future generations will never be able to use that access to public waters unless it is defended. 

We are now faced with a proposal from Mr. Fulcher which, if accepted by the town, may consolidate his holdings in a way that will enhance the value to him and to his "successors and assigns." 

Any benefit to Mr. Fulcher should not be the focus of our deliberations. Our focus should be on whether the proposal provides the public with equivalent or improved access to public trust waters in our harbor.  

We also have the issue of whether the proposed deal, as negotiated, is legal.

More later.

Operation MO - May, 1942

A central front in the war with Japan took place in the electromagnetic spectrum. That front was getting hotter.

The tactical surprise of Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was made possible by Japanese communications security. Communications were sent and received over land lines and undersea cables. Very few communications were sent by radio, using Japan's naval code, known by western cryptographers as JN-25. On top of that, Japan changed the code on December 4, 1941. Prior to December 4, cryptographers had recovered about 10% of the code. After December 4, they had to start from scratch.

That all changed after December 7, as Japanese naval forces operated throughout East Asia, Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, and along the expanding periphery of the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," as they called their empire. They had to communicate by radio.

More radio communications - more intercepts. Allied cryptographers had much more to work with. By April, they could read more than 50% of the intercepts. It was hard work. They combined the disciplines of cryptanalysis, traffic analysis, and other sources of electronic intelligence. They key punched the intercepts into IBM cards and fed them through IBM machines.

By late April they knew Japan was planning Operation MO - an expansion into the Solomons and an amphibious assault on the south coast of New Guinea to take the area around Port Moresby. It would give them airfields from which they could threaten Australia and interdict the sea routes from the US.

On May 3, 1942, Japanese forces invaded and occupied Tulagi, in the Australian protectorate of the Solomons. It would become a seaplane base.

Admiral Nimitz sent two carrier task forces, centered around the carriers Lexington and Yorktown in the direction of New Guinea. The only other US carriers in the Pacific, Enterprise and Hornet, had just returned to Pearl Harbor from the Doolittle raid on Japan. They got ready to join Lexington and Yorktown.

Japan assigned two carriers, Shokaku and Zuikaku, who had taken part in the attack on Pearl Harbor, as well as a smaller carrier, Shoho.

Cryptanalysis indicated the Japanese invasion of Port Moresby was planned for May 10.

South Avenue Update

Last night at the regular Oriental Board of Commissioners meeting, attendees were shown a detailed survey of the area surrounding the intersection of South Avenue and Avenue A. The survey was done in support of the contract being negotiated between the town and Mr. Chris Fulcher. The contract itself has apparently not been completed, but some provisions can be deduced from details on the survey. Here is the survey:

I see several potential problems with the proposal as reflected in the survey.

Oriental's Parks and Rec board met this morning at 8:00 to review the plans. There is a brief account here at Town Dock. The main issues were summarized as follows:

"Like some of the public — such as Oriental resident and long-time sailor Art Tierney — who were at the meeting, a majority of the Parks and Rec Board questioned whether the town was getting adequate land and water rights and maneuvering room for visiting boats in the exchange.

"One issue: how savvy were town officials when they negotiated the deal. When asked this morning why the town hadn’t done a real estate appraisal on the land that Chris Fulcher would gain in the land swap, Town Commissioner Larry Summers dismissed the idea and reiterated his position that the right of way land was worth nothing to the town."

I will address these issues over the next day or so.

Liberty

I just finished reading The Attack On The Liberty by James Scott.

The book is a troubling reminder of the deliberate, sustained and unprovoked attack by coordinated air and naval forces of the state of Israel on USS Liberty, AGTR-5, a converted World War II merchant ship of the Victory class. The attack, which occurred in international waters near Egypt June 8, 1967, killed 34 US sailors and wounded 170 others, out of a crew of 300.

For comparison, when an Iraqi pilot under Saddam Hussein fired an Exocet missile at USS  Stark May 17, 1987, 37 sailors died. When Al-qaida conducted a suicide attack against USS Cole October 12, 2000, 17 sailors died.

In the case of Liberty, loss of life could have been much greater except for heroic efforts by all of her surviving sailors, but especially her medical officer, Dr. Richard Kiepfer and her Damage Control Assistant, Ensign John Scott, who managed to keep the ship afloat after devastating damage from an Israeli torpedo.

Israel, which admitted the attack and issued an apology, has never provided a believable account of why the attack occurred.

James Scott, the author, is the son of Ensign John Scott, who kept the ship afloat.