A Mug's Game

Starting a war is a mug's game.

This has been true in almost all cases in international wars over the past two centuries. Just think of the examples:

British invasion of the American Colonies after having earlier withdrawn all forces (1776);

Napoleon's invasion of Russia (1812);

Santa Ana's attack on American forces along the Nueces River in 1846 (President Polk provoked the Mexican attack and then took full advantage);

Confederate States of America attack on Ft. Sumter (1861);

Austrian declaration of war against Prussia (1866);

French declaration of war against Prussia (1870);

Austrian attack on Serbia (1914);

Russian attack on Germany (1914);

German attack on Belgium and France (1914);

Italy's attack on Ethiopia (1935);

Germany's attack on Poland (1939);

Germany's attack on the Soviet Union (1941);

Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor (1941);

North Korea's attack on South Korea (1950);

US intervention in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos (1964).

There are other examples. There are also a few examples of apparent successful aggressive wars, but the more normal outcome is temporary advantage, followed by stalemate or back-sliding.

It is too early to say what the long term effects of our adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan will be.

By the way, soldiers don't start wars. Civilians do that.