Many political analysts have been puzzled by the Herman Cain phenomenon. One of the most puzzled has been the statistical analyst Nate Silver on his blog, fivethirtyeight. In the end, Silver concludes that Cain is a statistical outlier and he (Nate) has no idea how to make a prediction.
Not so with the blogger Amanda Marcotte at the blog pandagon.net. Here is what she has to say:
"Herman Cain's temporary surge in popularity baffles much of the press,
but it honestly doesn't surprise me that much. There's always been a
strain of conservatives---the ones who say, "I'm really more
libertarian"---who missed out on the 60s and so want to reimagine
themselves as dangerous rebels who are out to get The Man, except in
this case The Man is ordinary working people who are oppressing the
beleagured wealthy class. You don't know downtrodden until The Man, in
his greedy grasping for health care and a humble pension, makes you
downgrade to a smaller yacht and reduce your summer house options to a
mere two or three. Luckily, the downtrodden rich have "libertarians" out
there who imagine they're being radical and subversive by calling for
regressive tax structures. These folks are Cain's base. Who else do you
think is buying all those stupid Harleys?"
That offers a whole new perspective on lawyer and doctor bikers.
On second read, I have to admit that there is a sneering tone to Amanda's observations which I have decried elsewhere. So while I am personally more comfortable with Nate Silver's cerebral style, I couldn't resist Amanda's more visceral take. So sue me.
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