"Now at last we are setting ourselves seriously to inquire whether it is
necessary that there should be any so called ‘‘lower classes’’ at all: that is
whether there need be large numbers of people doomed from their birth to
hard work in order to provide for others the requisites of a refined and
cultured life; while they themselves are prevented by their poverty and toil
from having any share or part in that life . . . the answer depends in a great
measure upon facts and inferences, which are within the province of
economics; and this is it which gives to economic studies their chief and their
highest interest."
Alfred Marshall Principals 1890, pp. 3-4
My comment: In this political season, I am appalled at the number of elected or aspiring political figures who seem to believe the object of our economy is the continued and increasing wealth of the wealthy rather than the prosperity of all. This is the overriding moral conflict of our time. Marshall's serious inquiry is not yet completed.
We once had the tools to create general prosperity. We have let them freeze up with rust from disuse and a lack of moral willpower.
This moral failing has been aided and abetted by neo classical economists seduced by the mathematics of the Polish mathematician Walras. Walras' theories fall short in part because pure homo economicus does not exist. Humans by nature are cooperative beings who live in groups and are motivated by what seems fair, rather than what maximizes their own economic gain. That is, normal people are so motivated.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Ideas Of Government
"There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that if
you just legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, that their
prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea has
been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous their
prosperity will find its way up and through every class that rests upon
it."
William Jennings Bryan, 1896
William Jennings Bryan, 1896
Friday, September 28, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Guadalcanal
September 28, 1942. Sixty-two Japanese planes attacked Guadalcanal, U.S. defenders shot down 23 aircraft, losing only one of their own.
Good for morale. Many struggles ahead, though.
Good for morale. Many struggles ahead, though.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Ed Credle: Patriot And Servant Of The People
Last weekend, Mr. Ed Credle, one of Pamlico County's most good and faithful servants, passed away. The county has lost a wonderful gentleman who served our community well.
Ed did not seek the limelight, he merely sought to serve. Over the years, Mr. Credle served as a town commissioner, but most memorably, he served on the Pamlico County Board of Elections.
I don't have a list of the exact years that Ed served the voters of Pamlico County. His terms were not entirely consecutive, but they add up to about two decades.
He was an inspiration to me and a source of valuable perspective on election matters. He will be sorely missed.
Ed Credle will be laid to rest this coming Saturday at the Missionary Baptist Church in Mesic.
The finest tribute any of our citizens can pay to the memory of Ed Credle is to vote in the 2012 election.
Ed did not seek the limelight, he merely sought to serve. Over the years, Mr. Credle served as a town commissioner, but most memorably, he served on the Pamlico County Board of Elections.
I don't have a list of the exact years that Ed served the voters of Pamlico County. His terms were not entirely consecutive, but they add up to about two decades.
He was an inspiration to me and a source of valuable perspective on election matters. He will be sorely missed.
Ed Credle will be laid to rest this coming Saturday at the Missionary Baptist Church in Mesic.
The finest tribute any of our citizens can pay to the memory of Ed Credle is to vote in the 2012 election.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Brisbane, Australia
The convoy carrying the 27th Air Depot Group docked at Brisbane, Australia September 24, 1942. Brisbane is in Southern Queensland. They established a temporary headquarters west of Ipswich at Amberly airfield.
Destination: Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Facilities at the destination: nonexistent. The roughly 900 men of the Group would have to build the facilities themselves. With inadequate tools.
For the next three months, the Air Depot Group unloaded and sorted out their equipment and continued training for their mission. One of the tasks: obtain heavy equipment to use in building their own warehouses, hangars and campsites.
It would be early December before the group arrived at Port Moresby.
Destination: Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Facilities at the destination: nonexistent. The roughly 900 men of the Group would have to build the facilities themselves. With inadequate tools.
For the next three months, the Air Depot Group unloaded and sorted out their equipment and continued training for their mission. One of the tasks: obtain heavy equipment to use in building their own warehouses, hangars and campsites.
It would be early December before the group arrived at Port Moresby.
Fascism
I had a conversation last evening with a Korean War veteran. The veteran shared a thought from an earlier time: "If Fascism comes here, it will arrive wrapped in the American flag."
A thought worth pondering.
I think it will also wear the armor of hate.
The conversation also calls to mind an earlier comment I posted about democracy.
A thought worth pondering.
I think it will also wear the armor of hate.
The conversation also calls to mind an earlier comment I posted about democracy.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Middle Class
- Facebook Comments:
RT: He's not a liberal, but he's a fan of President Obama. Hard to square those two. ... I do agree with Governor Romney that there is a dependent class... they work hard, they want better lives for their kids, all that is true. But they are becoming dependent on government more and more. And with that dependence comes control. ... As to President Obama, I believe his understanding of America is much less realistic than his opponent's. - RT: I must confess I'm not an expert on Romney's statements about what constitutes the middle class. There isn't an official definiition after all... Cf Obama's promises about never raising taxes on people earning under $250k a year (a promise he broke in April 2009). I understand if you may not want to give Romney credit for any intelligence... but let's be realistic. He has been governor of a state... he campaigns every day to real Americans... his campaign team no doubt makes sure he knows the price of a gallon of milk.
- DC: For what it's worth - 2% of American households have income above $250,000. Is that the middle?
- David Cox That's a really good question, and I don't have a succinct answer. I'm not sure that income is a useful dividing line. It is possible to divide the population into income by quintiles (20% units). Any household with income above 250K is way up in the top 10% of the top quintile. Working class doesn't work because of the historic association of that term with blue collar, factory workers, tradesmen and craftsmen. What is lacking is a term that collects people with common economic interests in the present world, namely everyone who works for salary or wages. It seems clear to me that wealthy individuals look down on anyone who lives on a paycheck. How about "Polloi?"
- RT: I dispute the premise that "wealthy individuals look down..." If you were saying something like that about blacks or women or whatever, we would be calling you a racist, sexist, etc. And if you cannot define "middle class" then surely you don't quarrel with someone else's definition, whatever it might be, right ;-) ?
- David Cox Why must I define "middle class?" It isn't a term I use, because I'm not sure it has any clear or useful meaning. I know what "quintile" and "quartile" mean and am comfortable using them to convey information about income. "Class" itself is a word that also fails to convey precise meaning. It once meant something reasonably useful, though not precise. "Upper class" conveyed a set of attitudes, education and speech as well as a certain degree of wealth. "Lower class" also conveyed something about the people thought to be included. In some circles, it was a synonym for "trailer trash." "Middle Class" was presumably somewhere in between, ordinary people as it were. In my experience that set of terms never fit southern society very well. Oh, yes, people also spoke of "Southern Aristocrats." There was a certain manner of speaking - at least among the women. A kind of soft Southern drawl with genteel accents. They had been to finishing school and knew how to prepare tea. To be in this category when I was growing up in Mississippi usually meant that sometime in the distant past, an ancestor had owned a plantation. Southern aristocrats didn't come from business. Faulkner captured the distinction perfectly in his stories of the Compsons (aristocrats increasingly down on their luck) and the despised but up and coming Snopeses. Oh, yes, there were also "yeoman farmers." Those were the ones who had never had slaves. Out of all that melange, I fail to see the usefulness of "middle class" as a category. If you find it useful, by all means use it.
As for "looking down on" that may not have precisely conveyed my point. I read postings from right wing sources talking about the "lucky duckies" who pay no income taxes. I watched the Republican convention. The message I keep hearing is one of disdain for people who work for salary or wages, rather than living on earnings from stocks and bonds. I don't think that is true of all wealthy people. I don't think it is only wealthy people who think along those lines. But it seems to me there exists a rentier class (bad word - how about "category") that does not esteem mechanics, plumbers, schoolteachers, engineers, or other folks who make and do stuff in the service of others. What to call them? I'm open to suggestions.
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Furthest Axis Advance
There can be any number of opinions as to the REAL turning points of World War II. In the Pacific, I choose the Doolittle raid as the event that changed Japanese prospects. The Battle of Midway is another candidate for turning point. But the failure of Japan to recapture Guadalcanal and consequent pullback in New Guinea made it clear to Japan that they were now on the defensive.
The November 1942 Allied invasion of North Africa (Operation Torch), preceded by German failure to control Malta, pointed to the end of German success in North Africa.
By Mid September the Soviet Union had stalled the German advance at Stalingrad, Moscow and Leningrad.
The Winter of 42-43 proved the high water mark of the Axis advance.
When Churchill announced to Parliament in November 1942 that it was perhaps the "end of the beginning" of World War II, it was an apt description.
The November 1942 Allied invasion of North Africa (Operation Torch), preceded by German failure to control Malta, pointed to the end of German success in North Africa.
By Mid September the Soviet Union had stalled the German advance at Stalingrad, Moscow and Leningrad.
The Winter of 42-43 proved the high water mark of the Axis advance.
When Churchill announced to Parliament in November 1942 that it was perhaps the "end of the beginning" of World War II, it was an apt description.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Autumnal Equinox In The Pacific
As the days shortened and the nights lengthened to twelve hours plus, Japanese troop-carrying destroyers had more time to deliver reinforcements. Night concealed ships from Douglas Scout Bombers (SBD's). In daylight the SBD's were deadly to Japanese ships.
Public Officials
In the summer of 2011 I posted a comment intending to put public service into context. In this case, I was writing mostly about municipal elected officials. But the same thoughts apply to County offices as well as state and higher offices. The pay may be somewhat greater than that for town officials, but the principal is the same and I thought it worth repeating:
I sometimes sit in the peanut gallery and aim (figurative) slings and arrows at local officials.
I have no personal interest in any controversies - I just want things done right. Yes, I have opinions about WHAT should be done to improve our town. My main focus, however, is HOW things are done. I try not to be influenced by personal feelings for or against individuals involved in the process.
This isn't personal - it's business. Public business.
There's another side to the story, though. We should admire all of our fellow citizens willing to step up to the plate and compete for approval of voters for the right to perform long hours of public service, steeped in controversy, often in the face of hostility, for no pay. Of all elected public officials in this land of ours, these are the ones we should most admire.
Let all incumbents know that we appreciate what they do.
For those who have already filed as candidates in November's election, I say thank you. For those still weighing whether to run for public office, I say "do it."
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Let Us Now Praise Local Pols
I have no personal interest in any controversies - I just want things done right. Yes, I have opinions about WHAT should be done to improve our town. My main focus, however, is HOW things are done. I try not to be influenced by personal feelings for or against individuals involved in the process.
This isn't personal - it's business. Public business.
There's another side to the story, though. We should admire all of our fellow citizens willing to step up to the plate and compete for approval of voters for the right to perform long hours of public service, steeped in controversy, often in the face of hostility, for no pay. Of all elected public officials in this land of ours, these are the ones we should most admire.
Let all incumbents know that we appreciate what they do.
For those who have already filed as candidates in November's election, I say thank you. For those still weighing whether to run for public office, I say "do it."
Seventy Years Ago: Stalingrad
While about 22,000 United States Marines were fighting the Japanese on Guadalcanal, with the future of the sea lines of communication to Australia at stake, far to the West a truly titanic struggle was taking place. The bulk of Germany's army had been thrown against the Soviet Union. There were three main German thrusts: against Leningrad in the North, against Moscow and against Stalingrad.
In all three cases, even as German forces were in the suburbs or in the case of Stalingrad, fighting street to street and house to house within the city, Soviet factories in the siege area continued to produce T-34 tanks that rolled off the factory floor directly into battle.
This is where the fate of Europe was to be decided.
The scale of the battle in Stalingrad was unbelievable. Here is a partial account.
In all three cases, even as German forces were in the suburbs or in the case of Stalingrad, fighting street to street and house to house within the city, Soviet factories in the siege area continued to produce T-34 tanks that rolled off the factory floor directly into battle.
This is where the fate of Europe was to be decided.
The scale of the battle in Stalingrad was unbelievable. Here is a partial account.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Noumea Harbor
September 21, 1942: The troop ships carrying the 27th Air Depot Group to the South Pacific steamed around the point and entered the harbor of Noumea, New Caledonia.
The ships had left San Francisco on September first and crossed the equator ten days earlier, on September 11. The embarked Army Air Forces personnel outnumbered the sailors aboard, so the crossing-the-line ceremony was fairly perfunctory. Even so, King Neptune made his anticipated appearance on each ship.
Master Sergeant Cox, untroubled by motion sickness, whiled away the hours playing cards and rolling dice. It had been a profitable passage. When not involved in games of chance, he stood watch at the guns mounted on the weather deck, so he was in position to see what transpired.
As the ships headed into harbor, he saw buildings burning, fire fighters trying to control the flames. Other ships already at anchor blinked messages at the new arrivals with signal lights. Instead of easing into assigned amchorages, the new arrivals milled about and headed back out to sea.
"Jap air raid," the messages said. "Don't anchor here. They are coming back."
The formation headed back out to sea, looking for the Australian escort ship they had been promised. Sailors and soldiers crowded the rails searching for the ship. "There she is!" One soldier cried out. "Where?"
White caps made it hard to see. They were expecting a destroyer or, perhaps a cruiser. The soldier kept insisting he saw it.
The long Pacific rollers swept by from astern, lifting the troop ships. From the top of the swell, Sergeant Cox suddenly spotted something. It looked like a broomstick popping up out of the ocean and then disappearing below the horizon.
Finally the ship got closer to the "broomstick" and a small hull popped up above the horizon.
Their escort was an Australian patrol vessel. It looked no bigger than a harbor patrol boat. But it had a gun and that was their escort, protecting them from the enemy until arrival at Brisbane five days later.
The ships had left San Francisco on September first and crossed the equator ten days earlier, on September 11. The embarked Army Air Forces personnel outnumbered the sailors aboard, so the crossing-the-line ceremony was fairly perfunctory. Even so, King Neptune made his anticipated appearance on each ship.
Master Sergeant Cox, untroubled by motion sickness, whiled away the hours playing cards and rolling dice. It had been a profitable passage. When not involved in games of chance, he stood watch at the guns mounted on the weather deck, so he was in position to see what transpired.
As the ships headed into harbor, he saw buildings burning, fire fighters trying to control the flames. Other ships already at anchor blinked messages at the new arrivals with signal lights. Instead of easing into assigned amchorages, the new arrivals milled about and headed back out to sea.
"Jap air raid," the messages said. "Don't anchor here. They are coming back."
The formation headed back out to sea, looking for the Australian escort ship they had been promised. Sailors and soldiers crowded the rails searching for the ship. "There she is!" One soldier cried out. "Where?"
White caps made it hard to see. They were expecting a destroyer or, perhaps a cruiser. The soldier kept insisting he saw it.
The long Pacific rollers swept by from astern, lifting the troop ships. From the top of the swell, Sergeant Cox suddenly spotted something. It looked like a broomstick popping up out of the ocean and then disappearing below the horizon.
Finally the ship got closer to the "broomstick" and a small hull popped up above the horizon.
Their escort was an Australian patrol vessel. It looked no bigger than a harbor patrol boat. But it had a gun and that was their escort, protecting them from the enemy until arrival at Brisbane five days later.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Campaign Lowjinks In Pamlico County
There are some things that should be out of bounds in election campaigns. Threatening phone calls to a candidate's wife fit in that category.
I have spent my life in defense of democracy. I believe every citizen should vote. Every citizen should feel free to express political opinions. I wish those opinions related to the substance of political differences rather than "nyaah, nyaah I don't like you!" That's worse than childish.
Everyone in the county seems to know about a threatening phone call to a candidate's wife, reported yesterday in the Sun Journal.
In an unrelated Facebook entry, the former minister of the Oriental Methodist Church offered the following suggestions:
Not bad advice.
I have spent my life in defense of democracy. I believe every citizen should vote. Every citizen should feel free to express political opinions. I wish those opinions related to the substance of political differences rather than "nyaah, nyaah I don't like you!" That's worse than childish.
Everyone in the county seems to know about a threatening phone call to a candidate's wife, reported yesterday in the Sun Journal.
In an unrelated Facebook entry, the former minister of the Oriental Methodist Church offered the following suggestions:
Not bad advice.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Guadalcanal, September 18, 1942
7th Marines, 4,180 men, land on Guadalcanal bringing total to 22,500.These were the same marines escorted by USS Wasp which sank from fires started by Japanese submarine torpedoes and USS North Carolina, damaged in the same encounter. The transports reached Guadalcanal.
Here is a portion of one marine's story.
Here is a portion of one marine's story.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Teachers, Unions And Nostrums
Good post today by the economist Jared Bernstein. I think it hits several nails on the head, so I take the liberty of quoting it in toto. Hope Professor Bernstein doesn't object:
"Students, Their Neighborhoods, Their Schools, and the Unions
"I’ve done just one post on the Chicago teachers’ strike,
pointing out that ratcheting up the weight on teachers’ evaluations
based on value-added modeling (VAM)—one of Mayor Emmanuel’s
conditions—is a really bad idea. Now, according to Reuters, the framework agreement they’ve reached out there scales back on that weighting. Here’s a useful piece by Richard Rothstein with more background on how and why these tests fail to accurately and reliably identify effective teachers.
But this morning, I’d like to take a bit broader look at the issues in play here. I open my WaPo this AM to read this:
"And it just reminds me how ridiculous it is for us to expect teachers to solve these problems for us while we’re busy beating up on their unions, cutting school budgets, laying off education personnel, and sharply reducing that part of the federal budget that could help make a difference in urban poverty.
"Of course we should insist on teacher accountability, but imagine for a moment being the teacher whose students legitimately fear for their lives upon walking to school. Just how talented does she have to be to offset the impact that must have on the ability of students to absorb her teachings?
"Now that there’s a framework for an agreement in place, I think the Chicago teachers should be back in the classroom. The fact that they’re not is a potent measure of the level of distrust that’s built up between the mayor and the unions. But if you think teachers unions are the reason too many kids aren’t learning enough, you’re wrong.
"As Mead puts it:
"Students, Their Neighborhoods, Their Schools, and the Unions
Sep 18, 2012
But this morning, I’d like to take a bit broader look at the issues in play here. I open my WaPo this AM to read this:
"Two days after a student was gunned down while walking to Anninna Sigmon’s high school in Prince George’s County, she still wasn’t sure when she would feel safe enough to return to class."I am then reminded by this Rebecca Mead post that 80% of Chicago public school students qualify for free and reduced lunch, a proxy for poverty status.
“I just feel like I could be next,” said Sigmon, 17, a senior at Central High School in Capitol Heights. “People shouldn’t be afraid to go to school.”
"And it just reminds me how ridiculous it is for us to expect teachers to solve these problems for us while we’re busy beating up on their unions, cutting school budgets, laying off education personnel, and sharply reducing that part of the federal budget that could help make a difference in urban poverty.
"Of course we should insist on teacher accountability, but imagine for a moment being the teacher whose students legitimately fear for their lives upon walking to school. Just how talented does she have to be to offset the impact that must have on the ability of students to absorb her teachings?
"Now that there’s a framework for an agreement in place, I think the Chicago teachers should be back in the classroom. The fact that they’re not is a potent measure of the level of distrust that’s built up between the mayor and the unions. But if you think teachers unions are the reason too many kids aren’t learning enough, you’re wrong.
"As Mead puts it:
"No doubt there are some lousy teachers in Chicago, as there are everywhere. But blaming teachers for the failure of schools is like blaming doctors for the diseases they are seeking to treat."
Russia And Democracy
A wise professor of mine, Marshall D. Shulman, used to observe (in the 1960's) that the United States and the Soviet Union had a "limited adversary relationship."
His point was, that neither the United States nor the Soviet Union, even in the depths of the Cold War, was committed to the destruction of the other. In fact,the two countries cooperated in a number of efforts to limit the danger of war. One such effort was the agreement to limit incidents at sea. Concluded in 1972 under President Nixon, the agreement established an annual bilateral review of incidents and measures to lessen the possibility of conflict and misunderstanding. I had a minor role in hosting one of the meetings in Washington.
Measures to keep the relationship between the United States and the successor state of Russia a productive one, continues to be a challenge.
After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the United States Agency for International Development provided assistance to Russia in converting to a market economy. Among the most promising efforts was called the "rule of law" program. Other efforts included assistance in establishing democracy in the former Soviet Union.
These efforts are all in jeopardy, according to a report in the New York Times.
It isn't a surprise, but it doesn't help bilateral relations.
Even so, you do business with the countries that exist - not the ones you imagine.
His point was, that neither the United States nor the Soviet Union, even in the depths of the Cold War, was committed to the destruction of the other. In fact,the two countries cooperated in a number of efforts to limit the danger of war. One such effort was the agreement to limit incidents at sea. Concluded in 1972 under President Nixon, the agreement established an annual bilateral review of incidents and measures to lessen the possibility of conflict and misunderstanding. I had a minor role in hosting one of the meetings in Washington.
Measures to keep the relationship between the United States and the successor state of Russia a productive one, continues to be a challenge.
After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the United States Agency for International Development provided assistance to Russia in converting to a market economy. Among the most promising efforts was called the "rule of law" program. Other efforts included assistance in establishing democracy in the former Soviet Union.
These efforts are all in jeopardy, according to a report in the New York Times.
It isn't a surprise, but it doesn't help bilateral relations.
Even so, you do business with the countries that exist - not the ones you imagine.
Monday, September 17, 2012
On Starting Wars
I have observed elsewhere that starting a war is a mug's game. In general, not a good way to advance national security interests.
September 18, 1931, Japanese military personnel staged the Mukden Incident, also known as the Manchurian Incident, which served as the pretext for a Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Six months later, Japan established the puppet state of Manchukuo. The international uproar caused Japan to withdraw from the League of Nations in March, 1933.
In the long run, the invasion didn't work out so well.
It led to Pearl Harbor. And Hiroshima. And Nagasaki.
September 18, 1931, Japanese military personnel staged the Mukden Incident, also known as the Manchurian Incident, which served as the pretext for a Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Six months later, Japan established the puppet state of Manchukuo. The international uproar caused Japan to withdraw from the League of Nations in March, 1933.
In the long run, the invasion didn't work out so well.
It led to Pearl Harbor. And Hiroshima. And Nagasaki.
Seventy Years Ago: Japanese Stop Advance 30 Miles Short of Port Moresby
Japanese troops fighting their way overland toward Port Moresby, halted their advance at Loribawa, withing 30 miles of their objective. The next day, the nearly starving Japanese troops would begin withdrawing back over the Owen Stanly mountains.
They were halted because of the marines holding out on Guadalcanal. Japan planned to complete their conquest of New Guinea after completing their takeover of Guadalcanal.
It never happened.
They were halted because of the marines holding out on Guadalcanal. Japan planned to complete their conquest of New Guinea after completing their takeover of Guadalcanal.
It never happened.
Do Small Businesses Create Most Jobs? Not Exactly
This is one of those cases where it depends how you slice the data.
Specifically, it depends on whether you are counting firms or establishments.
Economist Jared Bernstein explains in a recent article here. In brief, smaller firms created fewer jobs than their percentage of the labor force and large firms (above 500 employees) created more new jobs than their percentage of the labor force.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics explains the difference between a firm and an establishment:
"An establishment is defined as an economic unit that produces goods or services, usually at a single physical location, and engaged in one or predominantly one activity. A firm is a legal business, either corporate or otherwise, and may consist of one establishment, a few establishments, or even a very large number of establishments. [Bernstein bold]"
The difference may seem subtle, but the statistical difference is substantial. It should become clear by reading the article.
Another issue that I surmise has an effect on the statistical outcome, but that Bernstein doesn't examine has to do with outsourcing. For tax and accounting reasons, many large firms in recent decades have decided to let direct employees go and hire contract firms to do the same work.
In many instances, the small contract business is formed for the specific purpose of hiring former employees of the large firm and continuing to do the same work at the same location. In such a case, there really are no new jobs, though it may appear that the new small business has created new jobs for its new employees. It is really sleight of hand.
Specifically, it depends on whether you are counting firms or establishments.
Economist Jared Bernstein explains in a recent article here. In brief, smaller firms created fewer jobs than their percentage of the labor force and large firms (above 500 employees) created more new jobs than their percentage of the labor force.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics explains the difference between a firm and an establishment:
"An establishment is defined as an economic unit that produces goods or services, usually at a single physical location, and engaged in one or predominantly one activity. A firm is a legal business, either corporate or otherwise, and may consist of one establishment, a few establishments, or even a very large number of establishments. [Bernstein bold]"
The difference may seem subtle, but the statistical difference is substantial. It should become clear by reading the article.
Another issue that I surmise has an effect on the statistical outcome, but that Bernstein doesn't examine has to do with outsourcing. For tax and accounting reasons, many large firms in recent decades have decided to let direct employees go and hire contract firms to do the same work.
In many instances, the small contract business is formed for the specific purpose of hiring former employees of the large firm and continuing to do the same work at the same location. In such a case, there really are no new jobs, though it may appear that the new small business has created new jobs for its new employees. It is really sleight of hand.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
History Update: Czechoslovakia Dissolved (Twenty Years Ago)
It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so.
Will Rogers
Will Rogers
Meanwhile, Back At Oriental Town Hall
It has been a pleasure to watch the progress in rebuilding Oriental Town Hall.
We have been talking about modifying Town Hall for five or six years now. Glad to see the project seriously underway.
I'm sorry the town Board I served on made the obviously erroneous decision to let our flood insurance lapse. Bad idea, though it saved a bit of money for a couple of years.
I think the newly-designed layout will better serve the citizens of Oriental.
We have been talking about modifying Town Hall for five or six years now. Glad to see the project seriously underway.
I'm sorry the town Board I served on made the obviously erroneous decision to let our flood insurance lapse. Bad idea, though it saved a bit of money for a couple of years.
I think the newly-designed layout will better serve the citizens of Oriental.
Campaign News Roundup For The Young
The Strip | By Brian McFadden
September 9, 2012
This post is a bit late, but I thought it was kinda fun. I continue to be amazed at what the younger generation doesn't know or understand about American history and our political system. I think this is the sort of thing retired Supreme Court Sandra Day O'Conner has tried to address. Not apparent she is making much headway.
This post is a bit late, but I thought it was kinda fun. I continue to be amazed at what the younger generation doesn't know or understand about American history and our political system. I think this is the sort of thing retired Supreme Court Sandra Day O'Conner has tried to address. Not apparent she is making much headway.
Ship Misidentification
During the Democratic National Convention, an evening was set aside to honor veterans and recognize their service to the nation. That's always a good thing to do.
But whoever put together the slide show included a dramatic photo of a group of Soviet warships, with what appear to be a formation of US aircraft flying over.
It was a good picture, but it would have been better to have a formation of American warships. Here's the account from the Navy Times.
A bit embarrassing. Shouldn't have happened.
On the other hand, at least no one was killed, as happened in 1974 when the Turkish Air Force sank the Turkish Navy destroyer, TCG Kocatepe.
I've been reading a lot lately about WWII in the Pacific, and such episodes were not unknown. The truth is, identifying warships can be a challenge, even for a trained professional.
Now to the interesting part. The slide that was shown is in silhouette and the antenna arrays are pretty characteristic of Soviet warships. The hull and superstructure of the ships, though, look an awful lot like our Arleigh Burke class Aegis destroyers. There's a good reason for that. After years of study by naval intelligence and the Naval Ships Systems Command, our naval architects decided that the hull form used by the Soviets had much better sea keeping qualities in heavy weather than the shape we had used on destroyers and cruisers since early in the 20th century. So, for our newest combatant ship we borrowed heavily from Soviet Naval Architecture.
How do I know? Some of my friends did the research, and I saw the culmination of it when I worked on the details of the Arleigh Burke class combat system design.
It isn't a big secret, but I don't think the influence of Soviet designs on our ships is widely known. Compare the pictures, and you will see what I mean.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:BCGN_Kalinin_1991.jpg
http://www.military-today.com/navy/arleigh_burke_class_l3.jpg
By the way, when it was formed in 1882, the Office of Naval Intelligence was formed for the purpose of seeking out and reporting developments in other navies. So we could copy the best. At that time in our history, we intended to modernize, but had not yet begun the "new steel navy." The first four steel warships were not authorized by Congress until 1883. We had a lot to learn about steel plating, assembly, modern steam plants, and large guns.
Why not learn from other navies? we thought then. Still not a bad idea.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Wasp Sunk; North Carolina Torpedoed
The afternoon of September 15, 1942,
Wasp (CV-7), Hornet (CV-8), North Carolina (BB-55) and 10
other warships were escorting a convoy carrying the 7th Marine Regiment from
Espiritu Santo to Guadalcanal as reinforcements. As duty carrier, Wasp had been launching and recovering aircraft to support the operation. At about 2:45 in the afternoon, while she was rearming and refueling aircraft with gasoline and munitions exposed, a destroyer spotted three torpedoes headed right for the carrier. Japanese submarine I-19 had fired a spread of six
21-inch type 93 torpedoes at Wasp. At least two hit their target. Of the torpedoes that missed Wasp, one hit North Carolina and one hit the destroyer O'Brien.
The Japanese submarine torpedo had a range of 5 miles at a speed of 50 knots or 6 1/2 miles at 46 knots. It was the best World War II torpedo of any navy.
Two torpedoes struck Wasp's starboard side almost simultaneously, one near the gasoline storage tanks and the other near the forward bomb magazine. About twenty seconds later, another explosion occurred. Gasoline fires broke out near the athwartships gasoline main on the second deck and low in the ship near ruptured gasoline tanks. Another major fire started forward in the hangar. Gasoline poured freely from ruptured tanks onto the surface of the water. When that gasoline ignited, the forward part of the ship was engulfed in flames. One 5"/38 ready ammunition locker ignited followed by internal explosions.
The Captain maneuvered the ship to keep the wind on her starboard quarter to blow the fire away from the undamaged portion of the ship. The Captain attempted to back the ship into the wind for to escape the gasoline fire on the water's surface, but this proved unsuccessful, as gasoline kept pouring from the tanks.
After a series of heavy explosions of gasoline vapor, loss of fire main pressure and failure of every attempt to bring the fire under control, the Captain ordered "abandon ship" at 3:20 p.m. Abandon ship was completed by 4:00 p.m., by which time Wasp was completely enveloped in flame.
193 sailors died and 366 were wounded in the attack. 45 planes went down with the ship.
Wasp stubbornly continued to float and was sunk by her escorts that night.
North Carolina returned to Pearl Harbor for repair of a 20 foot hole and was out of action for the rest of the year. O'Brien was temporarily repaired, but her damaged seams opened up a month later and she sank while returning to San Francisco for permanent repair.
With Enterprise (CV-6) damaged by bombs at Eastern Solomons, Saratoga damaged by a torpedo, and Wasp sunk, Hornet was the only carrier left in the South Pacific for six weeks. Hornet, too, was to be lost in the Battle of Santa Cruz Island on 26 Oct 1942 from air attack. Enterprise was damaged, again, and there were no active fleet carriers in the Pacific until Enterprise returned 12 Nov for the Naval Battles of Guadalcanal with repair parties still aboard and one elevator out of service.
Meanwhile, back on Guadalcanal, Japanese Major General Kawaguchi launched an attack with 3,000 soldiers of his brigade against Marine Lieutenant Colonel Edson's Ranger force of 850 marines. Kawaguchi lost 850 killed and the marines lost 104.
On September 15, Imperial General Headquarters in Japan learned of Kawaguchi's defeat and convened an emergency session. The top Japanese army and navy command staffs concluded that, "Guadalcanal might develop into the decisive battle of the war." The results to date began to have a strategic impact on Japanese operations in other areas of the Pacific. Army commanders realized that in order to send sufficient troops and materiel to defeat the Allied forces on Guadalcanal, they could not at the same time support the major ongoing Japanese offensive on the Kokoda Track in New Guinea. General Hyakutake, with the concurrence of General Headquarters, ordered his troops on New Guinea, who were within 30 miles of their objective of Port Moresby, to withdraw until the "Guadalcanal matter" was resolved. He prepared to send more troops to Guadalcanal for another attempt to recapture Henderson Field.
The Japanese submarine torpedo had a range of 5 miles at a speed of 50 knots or 6 1/2 miles at 46 knots. It was the best World War II torpedo of any navy.
Two torpedoes struck Wasp's starboard side almost simultaneously, one near the gasoline storage tanks and the other near the forward bomb magazine. About twenty seconds later, another explosion occurred. Gasoline fires broke out near the athwartships gasoline main on the second deck and low in the ship near ruptured gasoline tanks. Another major fire started forward in the hangar. Gasoline poured freely from ruptured tanks onto the surface of the water. When that gasoline ignited, the forward part of the ship was engulfed in flames. One 5"/38 ready ammunition locker ignited followed by internal explosions.
The Captain maneuvered the ship to keep the wind on her starboard quarter to blow the fire away from the undamaged portion of the ship. The Captain attempted to back the ship into the wind for to escape the gasoline fire on the water's surface, but this proved unsuccessful, as gasoline kept pouring from the tanks.
After a series of heavy explosions of gasoline vapor, loss of fire main pressure and failure of every attempt to bring the fire under control, the Captain ordered "abandon ship" at 3:20 p.m. Abandon ship was completed by 4:00 p.m., by which time Wasp was completely enveloped in flame.
193 sailors died and 366 were wounded in the attack. 45 planes went down with the ship.
Wasp stubbornly continued to float and was sunk by her escorts that night.
North Carolina returned to Pearl Harbor for repair of a 20 foot hole and was out of action for the rest of the year. O'Brien was temporarily repaired, but her damaged seams opened up a month later and she sank while returning to San Francisco for permanent repair.
With Enterprise (CV-6) damaged by bombs at Eastern Solomons, Saratoga damaged by a torpedo, and Wasp sunk, Hornet was the only carrier left in the South Pacific for six weeks. Hornet, too, was to be lost in the Battle of Santa Cruz Island on 26 Oct 1942 from air attack. Enterprise was damaged, again, and there were no active fleet carriers in the Pacific until Enterprise returned 12 Nov for the Naval Battles of Guadalcanal with repair parties still aboard and one elevator out of service.
Meanwhile, back on Guadalcanal, Japanese Major General Kawaguchi launched an attack with 3,000 soldiers of his brigade against Marine Lieutenant Colonel Edson's Ranger force of 850 marines. Kawaguchi lost 850 killed and the marines lost 104.
On September 15, Imperial General Headquarters in Japan learned of Kawaguchi's defeat and convened an emergency session. The top Japanese army and navy command staffs concluded that, "Guadalcanal might develop into the decisive battle of the war." The results to date began to have a strategic impact on Japanese operations in other areas of the Pacific. Army commanders realized that in order to send sufficient troops and materiel to defeat the Allied forces on Guadalcanal, they could not at the same time support the major ongoing Japanese offensive on the Kokoda Track in New Guinea. General Hyakutake, with the concurrence of General Headquarters, ordered his troops on New Guinea, who were within 30 miles of their objective of Port Moresby, to withdraw until the "Guadalcanal matter" was resolved. He prepared to send more troops to Guadalcanal for another attempt to recapture Henderson Field.
Friday, September 14, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Guadalcanal
US Marines on Guadalcanal learned that Japanese forces were regrouping along the Matanikau River, threatening the beachhead and Henderson Field. On September 14, Major General Vandegrift moved a battalion from Tulagi to Guadalcanal and ordered the 7th Marine Regiment from Espiritu Santo to Guadalcanal.
More than 4,000 marines embarked September 14 in a convoy of transports, escorted by 13 warships, including the carriers Hornet and Wasp and the battleship North Carolina. Marines fought along Bloody Ridge in defense of the beachhead.
More than 4,000 marines embarked September 14 in a convoy of transports, escorted by 13 warships, including the carriers Hornet and Wasp and the battleship North Carolina. Marines fought along Bloody Ridge in defense of the beachhead.
Politics Stops At The Water's Edge
At least that's what Republican Senator, Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan said in 1947. It was early in the Cold War, and Vandenberg had renounced isolationism and had become chair of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. He played a helpful role in forging bipartisan support for the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan and NATO.
A few years earlier, the 1940 Republican candidate for president, Wendell Willkie, assisted President Roosevelt by supporting Lend-Lease and other Roosevelt programs supporting internationalism and Civil Rights.
It is a truism, especially in international relations, that we only have one president at a time. An earlier generation understood that.
A few years earlier, the 1940 Republican candidate for president, Wendell Willkie, assisted President Roosevelt by supporting Lend-Lease and other Roosevelt programs supporting internationalism and Civil Rights.
It is a truism, especially in international relations, that we only have one president at a time. An earlier generation understood that.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
National Income: Where Does It Go?
Today's Census report shows both hopeful news and less hopeful news. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has done an analysis of the income figures by quintiles (dividing the country into fifths), adding a bar chart for the top 5%:
The chart shows that unless you are in the top 20 percent of households, your share of overall income has decreased since 1967. The top 20% now receives more than half of all household income. The top 5% receives nearly a fourth of all income.
The era when "a rising tide lifts all boats" seems to have ended.
Some say the system is rigged.
The chart shows that unless you are in the top 20 percent of households, your share of overall income has decreased since 1967. The top 20% now receives more than half of all household income. The top 5% receives nearly a fourth of all income.
The era when "a rising tide lifts all boats" seems to have ended.
Some say the system is rigged.
Aleksei Grogorievich Stakhanov - Hero of Socialist Labor
In August, 1935 Soviet newspapers reported that a twenty-nine year old miner, Aleksei Grigorievich Stakhanov (Алексе́й Григо́рьевич Стаха́нов) in the Donbass region mined 102 tonnes of coal in five hours, forty-five minutes. The output was fourteen times his quota. Less than a month later, he mined 227 tons in a single shift.
These heroic accomplishments were held up as a model for others to follow. Workers who exceeded their quotas were known as "Stakhanovites." The movement inspired others to follow suit. The government's goal was to exhort individuals to ever greater efforts at productivity.
Several curious things about the Stakhanovite movement.
1. The Soviet Union had just completed a bloody collectivization campaign, collectivizing every industrial and agricultural activity, yet Stakhanov's accomplishment was to exceed a personal, piece-work goal;
2. Central planners also established output goals for enterprises, but managers apparently saw no way to achieve those goals except to prod individual workers;
3. Central planners were heavily engaged at the time in mechanization of production, but management methods followed pre-revolutionary hierarchical and authoritarian models of management;
4. Management focus was on gross output, not quality;
5. Exhortation was a major instrument of motivation - this instrument almost never works well;
6. Seeds of later failure of the Soviet economic model were sown in the late twenties and early thirties.
My main conclusion: Soviet economic shortcomings resulted from poor management methods - methods handed down from at least the time of Peter the Great.
The failure of the Soviet Union as a political system, however, stemmed from the difficulty of incorporating more than 120 nationalities, with as many languages and at least that many cultures.
It was a pretty impossible task. The breakup of the Soviet Union has not completely played out to this day.
Though the experiment failed, it accomplished some amazing things.
These heroic accomplishments were held up as a model for others to follow. Workers who exceeded their quotas were known as "Stakhanovites." The movement inspired others to follow suit. The government's goal was to exhort individuals to ever greater efforts at productivity.
Several curious things about the Stakhanovite movement.
1. The Soviet Union had just completed a bloody collectivization campaign, collectivizing every industrial and agricultural activity, yet Stakhanov's accomplishment was to exceed a personal, piece-work goal;
2. Central planners also established output goals for enterprises, but managers apparently saw no way to achieve those goals except to prod individual workers;
3. Central planners were heavily engaged at the time in mechanization of production, but management methods followed pre-revolutionary hierarchical and authoritarian models of management;
4. Management focus was on gross output, not quality;
5. Exhortation was a major instrument of motivation - this instrument almost never works well;
6. Seeds of later failure of the Soviet economic model were sown in the late twenties and early thirties.
My main conclusion: Soviet economic shortcomings resulted from poor management methods - methods handed down from at least the time of Peter the Great.
The failure of the Soviet Union as a political system, however, stemmed from the difficulty of incorporating more than 120 nationalities, with as many languages and at least that many cultures.
It was a pretty impossible task. The breakup of the Soviet Union has not completely played out to this day.
Though the experiment failed, it accomplished some amazing things.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Romney Killed Bin Laden?
Very interesting post by Dylan Matthews in yesterday's Washington Post about a recent Public Policy Polling report from Ohio. The most surprising response to polling questions was that 15% of Republicans polled expressed the opinion that Romney was responsible for the killing of Osama Bin Laden.
How could that be?
Matthews examines some relevant scholarly analysis of polling and presents some possible explanations. He summarizes the analysis: "....voters have trouble crediting politicians they don’t like for policy outcomes they do like. And killing bin Laden is a policy outcome they do like. And so partisan effects have led some Republicans to argue that Obama was not primarily responsible for killing bin Laden or, even more absurdly, that Romney was responsible."
I recommend the whole article. It is also worthwhile reading the referenced scholarly articles as well.
It explains why a campaign operative might say "we won't let our campaign be driven by fact checkers."
How could that be?
Matthews examines some relevant scholarly analysis of polling and presents some possible explanations. He summarizes the analysis: "....voters have trouble crediting politicians they don’t like for policy outcomes they do like. And killing bin Laden is a policy outcome they do like. And so partisan effects have led some Republicans to argue that Obama was not primarily responsible for killing bin Laden or, even more absurdly, that Romney was responsible."
I recommend the whole article. It is also worthwhile reading the referenced scholarly articles as well.
It explains why a campaign operative might say "we won't let our campaign be driven by fact checkers."
Monday, September 10, 2012
Democracy In America
Last May I came across a blog titled Middle Class Political Economist. The post that caught my eye was an examination of over representation of rural areas in the US Congress. I thought it was a good discussion of an issue I had long pondered.
So I offered the following comments:
Some of the ills of congress are built into our constitution. The US Senate, for example, which likes to characterize itself as "the world's greatest deliberative body" is arguably the "free world's" least democratic body. That is, first of all, a consequence of the constitutional arrangement that each state, regardless of size or economic output, have an equal number of senators. This is compounded by the increasingly inexplicable commitment of the senate to the requirement of a supermajority of senators to pass any legislation at all. My solution to that: get rid of paper filibusters imposed by the cloture rule. Let's go back to "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" style of filibuster. Filibusters would become more rare because voters could see what was happening and better understand what it was about.
Some republicans want to fix the senate by repealing the seventeenth amendment providing direct popular election of senators. What, we have too much democracy?
A common complaint about the House of Representatives is "My representative doesn't listen to people like me."
Some advocate term limits to fix this. I say, we already have term limits. Elections. What we don't have is enough representatives.
We are going through redistricting right now. This is the process after every decenniel census (except for the 1920 census - there was not a reapportionment after that census). First congress reapportions seats in the House of Representatives to the states according to population. District boundaries are then redrawn by state legislatures and in some cases by courts.
Contrary to popular opinion, the number of seats in the House of Representatives is not in the constitution. But the number has not changed since it was set at 435 in 1911. At that time, each member of the House represented about 216,000 citizens. Since then, our population has more than tripled, but the number remains the same. Now each member represents about 708,000 constituents.
My suggestion: enlarge the House so that each member represents about 216,000 citizens. With modern communications systems, that would allow the members closer communication with constituents. It would also lower the financial and organizational barriers to running for office. It might reduce the influence of money in politics and even create opportunities for more political parties to become competitive.
How many representatives would we have? About 1,426. Admittedly, that might make the body even more unwieldy, but it might force more cooperation. It would certainly induce representatives to be more responsive to constituents.
How could we accommodate so many representatives? Replace the desks on the floor of the House with benches. Reduce representatives' personal staffs. Currently, members are allowed to hire as many as eighteen personal staffers. Reduce that to five per member. Representatives might have to study bills themselves, possibly answer phones and write some of their own correspondence. But they wouldn't have to raise so much money.
Originally Posted May 29, 2012
So I offered the following comments:
Some of the ills of congress are built into our constitution. The US Senate, for example, which likes to characterize itself as "the world's greatest deliberative body" is arguably the "free world's" least democratic body. That is, first of all, a consequence of the constitutional arrangement that each state, regardless of size or economic output, have an equal number of senators. This is compounded by the increasingly inexplicable commitment of the senate to the requirement of a supermajority of senators to pass any legislation at all. My solution to that: get rid of paper filibusters imposed by the cloture rule. Let's go back to "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" style of filibuster. Filibusters would become more rare because voters could see what was happening and better understand what it was about.
Some republicans want to fix the senate by repealing the seventeenth amendment providing direct popular election of senators. What, we have too much democracy?
A common complaint about the House of Representatives is "My representative doesn't listen to people like me."
Some advocate term limits to fix this. I say, we already have term limits. Elections. What we don't have is enough representatives.
We are going through redistricting right now. This is the process after every decenniel census (except for the 1920 census - there was not a reapportionment after that census). First congress reapportions seats in the House of Representatives to the states according to population. District boundaries are then redrawn by state legislatures and in some cases by courts.
Contrary to popular opinion, the number of seats in the House of Representatives is not in the constitution. But the number has not changed since it was set at 435 in 1911. At that time, each member of the House represented about 216,000 citizens. Since then, our population has more than tripled, but the number remains the same. Now each member represents about 708,000 constituents.
My suggestion: enlarge the House so that each member represents about 216,000 citizens. With modern communications systems, that would allow the members closer communication with constituents. It would also lower the financial and organizational barriers to running for office. It might reduce the influence of money in politics and even create opportunities for more political parties to become competitive.
How many representatives would we have? About 1,426. Admittedly, that might make the body even more unwieldy, but it might force more cooperation. It would certainly induce representatives to be more responsive to constituents.
How could we accommodate so many representatives? Replace the desks on the floor of the House with benches. Reduce representatives' personal staffs. Currently, members are allowed to hire as many as eighteen personal staffers. Reduce that to five per member. Representatives might have to study bills themselves, possibly answer phones and write some of their own correspondence. But they wouldn't have to raise so much money.
Originally Posted May 29, 2012
Football - A Liberal, Collectivist Enterprise
Conservative columnist George Will has uncovered a liberal, elitist plot - the introduction of football into higher education. Football teams, after all, succeed because of effective teamwork, planning and organization. They don't succeed because of stars, who can't score without blockers.
If Will had any direct personal experience with military operations, he would know that the military is a collectivist enterprise as well.
I guess that's why George Will is so fascinated with baseball. Still, there's a disturbing amount of teamwork there as well. Hard to imagine a triple play or a hit and run play without teamwork.
If Will had any direct personal experience with military operations, he would know that the military is a collectivist enterprise as well.
I guess that's why George Will is so fascinated with baseball. Still, there's a disturbing amount of teamwork there as well. Hard to imagine a triple play or a hit and run play without teamwork.
How To Be A Republican
- You have to believe that those privileged from birth achieve success all on their own.
- You have to be against all government programs, but expect Social Security checks on time.
- You have to believe...everything Rush Limbaugh says.
- You have to believe society is color-blind and growing up black in America doesn't diminish your opportunities, but you still won't vote for Alan Keyes.
- You have to be against government interference in business, until your oil company, corporation or Savings and Loan is about to go broke and you beg for a government bail out.
- You have to believe a poor, minority student with a disciplinary history and failing grades will be admitted into an elite private school with a $1,000 voucher.
[Alternate to the first item: "born on third base, but thought he hit a triple."]
The late Ann Richards had a real Texas accent. Her comments may seem a bit dated, but not all that much.
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: September 9, 1942 - Japanese Bomb Oregon
Pretty incredible for a Japanese aircraft to bomb Oregon, but they did it seventy years ago, September 9, 1942. Here's the story.
On Poverty And Government
Economist Jared Bernstein brings to our attention an illuminating graph showing data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a body made up of the world's 20 most advanced economies. What the graph shows is that all 20 advanced countries alleviate poverty to some extent by redistribution payments.
The poverty rate of the United States before redistribution is 26.3%; very close to the 26.4% average of the other 19 member states.
After redistribution, however, is a completely different story. The poverty rate of American citizens after taking redistribution into account is at the bottom - 20th among OECD countries.
"We're number 20" isn't such an inspiring chant. Here's the graph:
We're the richest country in the world and that's the best we can do?
The poverty rate of the United States before redistribution is 26.3%; very close to the 26.4% average of the other 19 member states.
After redistribution, however, is a completely different story. The poverty rate of American citizens after taking redistribution into account is at the bottom - 20th among OECD countries.
"We're number 20" isn't such an inspiring chant. Here's the graph:
We're the richest country in the world and that's the best we can do?
On Women And Work
"They blame the low income women for ruining the country because they are
staying home with their children and not going out to work. They blame
the middle income women for ruining the country because they go out to
work and do not stay home to take care of their children."
-Ann Richards
When we were pushing "welfare reform," meaning putting single mothers out to work, I always wondered, "who is going to raise the children?" There are possible answers, but I don't recall that we ever had that conversation.
-Ann Richards
When we were pushing "welfare reform," meaning putting single mothers out to work, I always wondered, "who is going to raise the children?" There are possible answers, but I don't recall that we ever had that conversation.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Taking Stock In The Pacific
In September 1942, Japan remains determined to expel the Americans from Guadalcanal. Bloody fighting, both ashore and at sea. Nothing works for Japan, but neither have the Americans clinched the win. On Guadalcanal, it was about half time. Or by a baseball clock maybe approaching time for the seventh-inning stretch. By early September, both sides have runs, hits and errors.
Time to review the pluses and minuses of both sides:
Japan:
Assets -
1. Incredibly effective torpedoes. Far faster, greater range, explosive power and reliability than American torpedoes. Air launched torpedoes have less explosive power, but are equally effective and can be launched in shallow water;
2. Aggressive submarines. Used against warships in fleet actions, with good effect;
3. Excellent pilots - especially aircraft carrier fighter pilots;
4. Superb fighter plane - Mitsubishi Zero - highly maneuverable, long range, high climb rate, great for dogfighting;
5. Sailors skilled in night fighting;
6. Superior optical systems, including gun laying equipment;
7. Outnumbered US in aircraft carriers at outset, 10-5;
Vulnerabilities:
1. Poor damage control and firefighting equipment and skills;
2. Submarines not used effectively against allied shipping;
3. No effective organization to recover downed pilots and to train replacements to a high enough level;
4. Aircraft highly maneuverable but not strongly built - no self-sealing fuel tanks (vulnerable to fire) and no armor to protect pilots;
5. Lost more aircraft than allies from the beginning;
6. No radar;
7. By early September had lost 6 aircraft carriers to 2 for US;
United States:
Assets -
1. Ship board radar;
2. Ground based radar;
3. Communications intelligence;
4. Excellent pilots;
5. Superb damage control training and equipment;
6. Incomparable experience in carrier flight operations;
7. Excellent organization to recover downed pilots;
8. 5"/38 dual purpose gun - war's best anti aircraft artillery;
9. Two decades of detailed war planning;
10. Excellent and rugged aircraft: e.g. F-4-F slower than Zero but more rugged, climbs more slowly but to higher altitude and dives faster without falling apart;
11. Fleet units and organizations well prepared for war (under Kimmel's leadership);
12. Excellent coordination between Navy, Marine and Army air forces;
13. Skilled at underway replenishment at sea;
Liabilities:
1. Snafus at high military staff levels in DC - e.g. R.K. Turner;
2. Snafus in army organization in the field - both Hawaii and Philippines failed to set up effective radar control organization - or for that matter, any organization at all for air defense, even though they had radar equipment for nearly six months;
3. Torpedoes - inadequate testing - failure to act on fleet reports of torpedo failures for two years;
4. Inadequate anti aircraft machine guns aboard ship - 1.1" quad mounts kept jamming and hitting power of projectile inadequate;
5. Staff level in DC failed to allocate enough resources to communications intelligence before the war and let some fleet commanders (R.K. Turner) fail to make effective use after the war. Turner, for example, wouldn't have a Comint support unit on his flagship;
6. Not enough equipment and ships (during 1920's and early 1930's, US had not built up to the limits of Naval arms limitation treaties);
7. First year of war, US Navy fighting in two oceans with a navy built for one - depended on movements through Panama Canal.
Time to review the pluses and minuses of both sides:
Japan:
Assets -
1. Incredibly effective torpedoes. Far faster, greater range, explosive power and reliability than American torpedoes. Air launched torpedoes have less explosive power, but are equally effective and can be launched in shallow water;
2. Aggressive submarines. Used against warships in fleet actions, with good effect;
3. Excellent pilots - especially aircraft carrier fighter pilots;
4. Superb fighter plane - Mitsubishi Zero - highly maneuverable, long range, high climb rate, great for dogfighting;
5. Sailors skilled in night fighting;
6. Superior optical systems, including gun laying equipment;
7. Outnumbered US in aircraft carriers at outset, 10-5;
Vulnerabilities:
1. Poor damage control and firefighting equipment and skills;
2. Submarines not used effectively against allied shipping;
3. No effective organization to recover downed pilots and to train replacements to a high enough level;
4. Aircraft highly maneuverable but not strongly built - no self-sealing fuel tanks (vulnerable to fire) and no armor to protect pilots;
5. Lost more aircraft than allies from the beginning;
6. No radar;
7. By early September had lost 6 aircraft carriers to 2 for US;
United States:
Assets -
1. Ship board radar;
2. Ground based radar;
3. Communications intelligence;
4. Excellent pilots;
5. Superb damage control training and equipment;
6. Incomparable experience in carrier flight operations;
7. Excellent organization to recover downed pilots;
8. 5"/38 dual purpose gun - war's best anti aircraft artillery;
9. Two decades of detailed war planning;
10. Excellent and rugged aircraft: e.g. F-4-F slower than Zero but more rugged, climbs more slowly but to higher altitude and dives faster without falling apart;
11. Fleet units and organizations well prepared for war (under Kimmel's leadership);
12. Excellent coordination between Navy, Marine and Army air forces;
13. Skilled at underway replenishment at sea;
Liabilities:
1. Snafus at high military staff levels in DC - e.g. R.K. Turner;
2. Snafus in army organization in the field - both Hawaii and Philippines failed to set up effective radar control organization - or for that matter, any organization at all for air defense, even though they had radar equipment for nearly six months;
3. Torpedoes - inadequate testing - failure to act on fleet reports of torpedo failures for two years;
4. Inadequate anti aircraft machine guns aboard ship - 1.1" quad mounts kept jamming and hitting power of projectile inadequate;
5. Staff level in DC failed to allocate enough resources to communications intelligence before the war and let some fleet commanders (R.K. Turner) fail to make effective use after the war. Turner, for example, wouldn't have a Comint support unit on his flagship;
6. Not enough equipment and ships (during 1920's and early 1930's, US had not built up to the limits of Naval arms limitation treaties);
7. First year of war, US Navy fighting in two oceans with a navy built for one - depended on movements through Panama Canal.
Voter Registration
Not registered? Moved? Changed name? Any other change to voter registration?
Please stop by the Board of Elections office in Bayboro and fill out a revised form. Or do so by mail.
If you want to vote in person on November 6, the deadline to register is October 12.
Voter Registration Deadline
Please stop by the Board of Elections office in Bayboro and fill out a revised form. Or do so by mail.
If you want to vote in person on November 6, the deadline to register is October 12.
Voter Registration Deadline
When: Friday, Oct 12, 2012
Description: October
12, 2012, 5pm - Voter registration deadline for November 6 General
Election. Forms must be postmarked or delivered in person by 5:00 pm
today [NCGS 163-82.6(c)] *Individuals who miss the registration deadline
may register in person and then vote at one-stop voting sites in the
person’s county of residence during the one-stop absentee voting period
(October 18-November 3). In order to register during a one-stop period,
the applicant must show acceptable proof of name and residence in the
county.
Remember: If you miss the deadline, you can always vote during one-stop.
Friday, September 7, 2012
Stakhanovites
The style is unmistakeably "socialist realism." In the National Review? A blatant copy of a Soviet poster (rolled up sleeves and all) declaring that "The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics is the Socialist Government of Workers and Peasants."
Pretty heroic pose. What gives? A resurgence of Stakhanovites? Thanks to Solon.com for the connection.
Pretty curious. I have some thoughts, having to do with the real reason for the demise of the Soviet Union and the role of Soviet management style.
Stay tuned.
Pretty heroic pose. What gives? A resurgence of Stakhanovites? Thanks to Solon.com for the connection.
Pretty curious. I have some thoughts, having to do with the real reason for the demise of the Soviet Union and the role of Soviet management style.
Stay tuned.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Absentee Voting
The Pamlico County Board of Elections has received absentee ballots for the 2012 election for President, Vice President, Governor and many other offices.
We will start mailing ballots to voters who requested absentee ballots over the next few days.
Election day may be November 6, but the election has begun.
We will start mailing ballots to voters who requested absentee ballots over the next few days.
Election day may be November 6, but the election has begun.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Sunday Voting
The Pamlico County Board of Elections went to Raleigh yesterday to seek State Board of Elections approval for a plan for One-Stop voting adopted by a majority of board members. Since the plan was not adopted unanimously, it required a hearing before the State Board. A total of nine counties whose plans were not adopted unanimously appeared before the board.
After hearing from of both majority and minority members, the State Board of Elections approved the Pamlico County plan supported by the majority. Therefore we will have voting on two Sunday afternoons during One-stop.
Both sides presented their positions on a well-prepared, rational and amicable basis. There was no hint of acrimony.
The same could not be said of some of the other counties. I came away from the hearing with a feeling of pride for the way our county conducts it business.
After hearing from of both majority and minority members, the State Board of Elections approved the Pamlico County plan supported by the majority. Therefore we will have voting on two Sunday afternoons during One-stop.
Both sides presented their positions on a well-prepared, rational and amicable basis. There was no hint of acrimony.
The same could not be said of some of the other counties. I came away from the hearing with a feeling of pride for the way our county conducts it business.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Oriental Update Street Closing Dispute
I have received a copy of a request from Oriental's Town Attoney to the Superior Court requesting a thirty day extension to the time for filing a response to my appeal. I did not object.
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: At Sea In The Eastern Pacific
A hundred miles west of the Farallon Islands, the troop ship's bow rose and fell as it met the swell generated by a storm thousands of miles across the Pacific. The ship's sailors seemed not to notice.
Embarked soldiers, stomachs upset by days of railroad food, did their best to keep their food down. Not many succeeded during the rough passage across the bar when they left the Golden Gate.
It was even worse now, in poorly-ventilated troop compartments with bunks stacked four high. A steady stream of soldiers sought relief in what they had learned was the head, not the latrine. Many didn't make it in time. They would have liked to get a breath of fresh air, but there were too many troops and too little deck space.
The privileged few who made it to a topside railing learned the hard way not to barf into the wind. Sometimes they had no choice.
A boatswain's mate piped his whistle and said something unintelligible over the announcing system. Time for evening chow. The soldiers already knew, because they had been smelling the odor of greasy pork chops for more than an hour.
Few made it to the mess hall.
My stepfather, newly-promoted Master Sergeant Cox, was one of them. Not bothered in the slightest by the ship's motion, he ate his fill.
Then he stood his watch with the crew of a 4" gun.
Plenty of fresh air.
Embarked soldiers, stomachs upset by days of railroad food, did their best to keep their food down. Not many succeeded during the rough passage across the bar when they left the Golden Gate.
It was even worse now, in poorly-ventilated troop compartments with bunks stacked four high. A steady stream of soldiers sought relief in what they had learned was the head, not the latrine. Many didn't make it in time. They would have liked to get a breath of fresh air, but there were too many troops and too little deck space.
The privileged few who made it to a topside railing learned the hard way not to barf into the wind. Sometimes they had no choice.
A boatswain's mate piped his whistle and said something unintelligible over the announcing system. Time for evening chow. The soldiers already knew, because they had been smelling the odor of greasy pork chops for more than an hour.
Few made it to the mess hall.
My stepfather, newly-promoted Master Sergeant Cox, was one of them. Not bothered in the slightest by the ship's motion, he ate his fill.
Then he stood his watch with the crew of a 4" gun.
Plenty of fresh air.
Let's Have A Strong Dollar?
Over the past week, I've heard a lot of calls for a "strong dollar."
Strong is good, right?
So who is a strong dollar good for?
For that matter, what is a "strong dollar?"
A "strong dollar" is a dollar with a high value relative to other currencies.
For whom is this good?
It's good for China. They get to make lots of stuff and sell it to us, because their prices are lower than our "strong dollar" prices.
It's good for Germany. They don't have to buy as much of our stuff to be able to sell us Mercedes', BMW's and Braun appliances.
It's good for India, Indonesia and Mexico.
Is it good for Americans? A strong dollar would be good for those who travel abroad. When I plan my next trip to Europe, I want the dollar to be "strong." What I have to spend for hotels and travel, etc. will be lower.
But for anyone in the export business or in the US tourist industry, a strong dollar is bad.
It raises the price to foreigners of American goods and services.
If you are an American and make stuff for foreign markets, you don't want a strong dollar.
If you make stuff for ordinary Americans to buy, you don't want a strong dollar.
If you are a financier, who only makes deals, not product, you do want a strong dollar. It lets you outsource offshore.
It lets you drive down any salaries you have to pay in this country.
If you are in the top one percent, of course a strong dollar is good!
Strong is good, right?
So who is a strong dollar good for?
For that matter, what is a "strong dollar?"
A "strong dollar" is a dollar with a high value relative to other currencies.
For whom is this good?
It's good for China. They get to make lots of stuff and sell it to us, because their prices are lower than our "strong dollar" prices.
It's good for Germany. They don't have to buy as much of our stuff to be able to sell us Mercedes', BMW's and Braun appliances.
It's good for India, Indonesia and Mexico.
Is it good for Americans? A strong dollar would be good for those who travel abroad. When I plan my next trip to Europe, I want the dollar to be "strong." What I have to spend for hotels and travel, etc. will be lower.
But for anyone in the export business or in the US tourist industry, a strong dollar is bad.
It raises the price to foreigners of American goods and services.
If you are an American and make stuff for foreign markets, you don't want a strong dollar.
If you make stuff for ordinary Americans to buy, you don't want a strong dollar.
If you are a financier, who only makes deals, not product, you do want a strong dollar. It lets you outsource offshore.
It lets you drive down any salaries you have to pay in this country.
If you are in the top one percent, of course a strong dollar is good!
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Democracy And Its Discontents
It seems that elections sometimes bring out the least thoughtful contributions to public discourse.
This is not just an American affliction. Folks across the Pond with whom we claim a "special relation" share the problem.
Here are some interesting thoughts on political discourse.
As always, it is good to read the comments as well as the blog posting. It helps get your mind around the problem.
This is not just an American affliction. Folks across the Pond with whom we claim a "special relation" share the problem.
Here are some interesting thoughts on political discourse.
As always, it is good to read the comments as well as the blog posting. It helps get your mind around the problem.
Seventy Years Ago: Is This Trip Necessary?
Railroad waiting rooms were decorated with posters. The messages were urgent: "Loose Lips Sink Ships," "Is Your Trip Necessary?" "Buy War Bonds."
Railroad travel for civilians and soldiers and sailors on leave was a lot like the picture in the poster. Gasoline and tire rationing brought highway travel to a halt.
Soldiers on troop trains, though, didn't have to read the posters. They didn't have to decide whether the trip was necessary. Someone else decided.
They didn't get to tell anyone where they were going or on what schedule. They didn't know themselves, and weren't allowed contact with anyone not on the train. Army censors read every letter and telegram before it went and excised classified information - or for that matter, any information at all. Especially about troop movements. After all, as the poster warned, "Loose Lips Sink Ships."
On September 1, 1942, 27th Air Depot Group's troop train arrived in San Francisco and the soldiers boarded the ship that would take them to Australia or wherever else the army decided to send them.
My stepfather asked permission to send a telegram. Western Union. His lieutenant referred him to the unit censor, who was also the chaplain. "Only for emergencies," the chaplain explained. "I just want to let my wife know of my promotion," my stepfather explained. The chaplain agreed.
The telegram said, "I made master sergeant today."
My mother received the telegram and got the real message: "He's going overseas today." She knew he would be promoted the day the ship left.
Railroad travel for civilians and soldiers and sailors on leave was a lot like the picture in the poster. Gasoline and tire rationing brought highway travel to a halt.
Soldiers on troop trains, though, didn't have to read the posters. They didn't have to decide whether the trip was necessary. Someone else decided.
They didn't get to tell anyone where they were going or on what schedule. They didn't know themselves, and weren't allowed contact with anyone not on the train. Army censors read every letter and telegram before it went and excised classified information - or for that matter, any information at all. Especially about troop movements. After all, as the poster warned, "Loose Lips Sink Ships."
On September 1, 1942, 27th Air Depot Group's troop train arrived in San Francisco and the soldiers boarded the ship that would take them to Australia or wherever else the army decided to send them.
My stepfather asked permission to send a telegram. Western Union. His lieutenant referred him to the unit censor, who was also the chaplain. "Only for emergencies," the chaplain explained. "I just want to let my wife know of my promotion," my stepfather explained. The chaplain agreed.
The telegram said, "I made master sergeant today."
My mother received the telegram and got the real message: "He's going overseas today." She knew he would be promoted the day the ship left.
Forebears
My grandfather was a coal miner. In Texas. Yes, I know he should have been in oil. But Palo Pinto County in 1902 when he went to work in the mines only had coal. Not very good coal at that.
He only had a third grade education. In Palo Pinto County in 1894, that's as far as school went. Of course, you had a choice. You could send your child east seventy miles to boarding school in Fort Worth. It was a bit far to go by train every day.
My grandfather worked hard. Never made much money. Had a lot of friends and close relations with his family, but by republican standards wasn't a success.
After listening to speeches at the republican convention, now I understand the problem. He wasn't an immigrant. He should have borrowed money from his uncle or his father and started a business.
The immigrant part is a real problem. No immigrants in my family since about 1741.
Ok, the money part was a problem, too.
He only had a third grade education. In Palo Pinto County in 1894, that's as far as school went. Of course, you had a choice. You could send your child east seventy miles to boarding school in Fort Worth. It was a bit far to go by train every day.
My grandfather worked hard. Never made much money. Had a lot of friends and close relations with his family, but by republican standards wasn't a success.
After listening to speeches at the republican convention, now I understand the problem. He wasn't an immigrant. He should have borrowed money from his uncle or his father and started a business.
The immigrant part is a real problem. No immigrants in my family since about 1741.
Ok, the money part was a problem, too.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
