Bailing Out

The labels need updating, but the cartoon is still good.

Cheerleading Politicians

A curious feature of American elected officials is that a number of them prepared for officialdom by serving as cheerleaders either in high school or college.

It makes sense. The function of a cheerleader is to stir the crowd to a hysterical level of support and optimism, no matter how dire the circumstances. The opposing team is ahead by four touchdowns and has the home team's back against the goal line, threatening another score. "Push 'em back," the cheerleader cries to the shouts of the fans, "push 'em way back.!"

Cheerleaders don't organize or select the plays,don't throw any passes, don't catch the ball or set any blocks. They don't even carry water to the folks who do.

Reality plays no part in the matter at all.

Among former cheerleaders in politics:

Thad Cochran, senior senator from Mississippi (Ole Miss);
Trent Lott, former senator from Mississippi (Ole Miss);
Kay Bailey Hutchison, former senator from Texas (University of Texas);
George W. Bush, former governor of Texas and former president of the United States (Phillips-Andover);
Rick Perry, governor of Texas (Texas A&M).

Third Party Nostrum

Last months' distressing dispute over the manufactured issue of the debt ceiling has inspired some pundits to fall in with the "third party" nostrum. The latest to join that particular bandwagon is the New York Times' Tom Friedman in a recent column.

The newest wrinkle in this third party scheme is a nationwide primary over the internet.

Friedman seems to think we need a more moderate party. I think a major part of our current problem is that the political process is both dominated by and beholden to monied (especially financial) interests. Moderation won't help that.

As for primaries, they're already pretty open. I think they are a large part of the problem, along with the visible decline of the journalism profession.

A contributing factor for much of the present confusion is the left/right/moderate typology. There are better models of the real political word. One such model is found at The Political Compass, which describes political views on an x-y plot, adding an additional dimension to the usual left/right straight line. Check it out at politicalcompass.org. Take the survey and see where you stand. You might be surprised.

A different approach is taken by the Pew Center for The People and the Press. After every presidential election the Pew Center (and before the the Times Mirror) conducts a detailed survey and provides the results in a report titled Beyond Red vs Blue: The Political Typology. The most recent report, released May 4th of this year, finds that the public is more doctrinaire at each end of the ideological spectrum, yet more diverse in the middle than it has been in the past. The typology, the fifth since 1987, sorts Americans into cohesive groups based on their values, political beliefs and party affiliation.

The most recent survey divides the public into nine groups, one of which, the "bystanders," don't bother voting at all. Of the others, twenty-five percent fall into mostly Republican groups, forty percent fall into mostly Democratic groups, and thirty-five percent fall into mostly independent groups. If we had elections based on proportional representation, the eight groups (other than bystanders) might form the basis for roughly the same number of political parties.

The Pew site offers readers the chance to take a quiz to determine their personal typology. Give it a try.

Breaking News: Guru Remains Deceased

Chicago: Aug. 12, 2011 This just in - John Maynard Keynes remains dead, fulfilling his own prophecy. "In the long run, we are all dead," Keynes predicted in 1923. His complete forecast was: "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again."

Chicago economists, however, have decided to undertake that very easy, useless task and reveal the plan: "leave the economy alone and it will come home. It's in the book."

Many observers hasten to add: "pay no attention to the apparent accuracy of predictions and mathematical models concocted by Keynes' disciples. Facts can only confuse things. What matters is dogma!"

Post War (WWII) Economic Reconstruction

My favorite economist, Paul Krugman, has pointed out a number of times recently that the profound increase in American prosperity after WWII took place in a period of high marginal tax rates and powerful labor unions. All true. I'm developing some thoughts about other things that were going on at the time that could have easily led to economic disaster except for some very effective economic planning for the postwar transition. More on that theme later.

I just came across a paper by the economist Brad DeLong comparing the postwar period with the period between WWI and WWII, especially in Europe:

"Another second important factor in making post-World War II economic reconstruction a success, a factor independent of the Keynesian revolution in economic policy, was the fact that post-World War II reconstruction was carried out in the shadow of the interwar period. The political and economic struggle between classes as it had been carried out in Europe between the wars had ended in complete disaster for all. Right-wing factions had wanted low wages, no welfare state, and stable prices; left-wing factions had wanted high wages and an extensive welfare state. The political and economic disruptions that this struggle generated led to fascism and Nazism. Hitler's rise had benefited no one." (Emphasis mine.)

Notice any familiar concepts?

Yield on Treasuries

Over the weekend, there was great concern that Standard and Poor's downgrade of U.S. debt would increase the cost of government borrowing.

Not so much.

It turns out the market has paid no attention to the downgrade. In fact, the yield on US Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds is now less than 1% for five-year issues, and overall down by about 1% from the yield a month ago. So Much for S&P.

Some also believed there would be a rally in the stock market after the debt limit deal. The market, however, seems to have figured out that the deal was bad news for the economy.

What we really need is jobs to fuel a recovery and resulting increase of revenue.

Oh, well.

Wisconsin Recall Election

The nation's most interesting election news today will be in Wisconsin, where recall elections are being held. Today's recall efforts are against six Republican state senators. Next week, recalls will be held against two Democratic senators.

The ability of voters to "recall" elected officials before end of term was part of a package of reform measures advocated by Populist and Progressive groups in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The package usually included initiative, referendum, recall and direct election of US Senators. A related effort sought nomination by primary elections.

The reform package achieved support in some areas of the country not usually thought of as especially progressive. Mississippi voters, for example, adopted a constitutional amendment for initiative, recall and referendum in 1914. The state supreme court promptly declared the constitutional amendment unconstitutional.

Nearly three years ago a local resident inquired of the Pamlico County Board of Elections what the procedure was in North Carolina to remove me and other Oriental commissioners from office by recall. The answer was: there is no such procedure.

That's about to change. During the current session of the NC legislature, local bills have been ratified establishing recall procedures in Oak Island, Topsail Beach, Belhaven and Burke (school board). Who knows where that will lead?

A Salute to Service of a Special Kind

Received last weekend:

Subject: Fw: Salute to the SEALS
Date: Sat, 6 Aug 2011 22:50:58 -0400

Some of you may have been fighter pilots, others have known them. A brash group of people. I know a few of the younger tribe and they do very well. In particular there is one guy who was CO of the TOPGUN School and retired after 25 years of fulsome service. He wrote the following praise about the SEALS. Do read it. I’ve Met Them By lex, on August 6th, 2011 I don’t believe I ever met any of the fallen heroes from DevGru. I don’t know their names, have not seen their faces. They shun recognition from anyone not of their tribe, knowing that no one not of them can appreciate what they have gone through, what they have accomplished, what they have been forced to do. But I have met them, or men like them. I also know fighter pilots, know them well. They give pride of place to few, their arrogance is legendary, even if overblown by those who envy their accomplishments. I’ve known fighter pilots who can make an airplane sing, who can turn the turbulent world of air combat into an operatic ballet, with themselves as the conductor. Knowing every beat and stanza, placidly certain of the denouement. But I never knew a fighter pilot who in his most private self would not tip his head to those few, those noble few, who are qualified to bring death to our nation’s foes by sea, air and land. I never knew an admiral I respected more as a man than a second class petty officer SEAL. I believed that if I had played the game the way it was meant to be played, and caught a few lucky breaks, I might have made flag rank. I know that I do not have now, and never did have, what it takes to be a Navy SEAL. The selection process is rigorous, the training syllabus withering. You may think you have what it makes to be a member of the teams. But if the instructional staff has doubts about your intelligence, your dedication, your ability to work as a member of a team, your physical stamina and endurance, you are done. There is no court of secondary appeal. And when they have decided that you do not have what it takes to make the grade, to fight alongside their beloved brothers in arms, you will leave thinking it was your decision. You will ring the bell and be grateful. For those few who make the cut, those who get to wear the Budweiser, the real challenges are yet to come. The challenge now is not to make the cut, it is not to grasp the intricacies of advanced training. The challenge is to go to places so utterly foreign, and fight foes so thoroughly implacable that to take the mission is to willingly part with all that you have, and all that you love, and place everything in the balance in a desperate gamble. You will be expensively and thoroughly trained, of course. You will have practiced until your motions seem involuntary. You will have in your company men who know, trust and love you in their own rough way. You will have certain knowledge of the justice of your cause, and the depravity of your enemy. But you will also know that fate plays its own games as you feel the beat of your own heart in your breast, knowing – as young men should never have to know – that when you’re on a mission, the next beat is not promised. Knowing that the fog of war is ineluctable, no matter your training, experience and skill. Knowing that things can and will go wrong. And you go anyway. Night after night, week after week, taunting fate. You go knowing that it is not merely your own life that trembles in the balance, but the lives of those you love, and who depend upon you. You go knowing that there is something more important even than those things: It is the idea we as a nation represent, whose best exemplification is those you fight alongside. You do not dwell on it, nor do you wear it on your sleeve. But it is there nonetheless. I know this because I have met them. They are as humble in their public presentation as fighter pilots are ostentatiously obnoxious. A fighter pilot may feel that he has something to prove, a SEAL knows that he does not. At least not before mere mortals. The only beings that a SEAL feels obligated to prove himself to are his God and his teammates. And in the places that they insert themselves, God is rarely in the room. Privation instead, and hardship. Monastic devotion to fitness, warrior prowess and to each other. Long days of preparation and rehearsal. Slow, creeping hours of approach to contact and moments of fierce combat. Expecting no quarter, and giving little. Living in each moment while knowing that each could be the last. Buttressed by the man to your left or right. Face forward to the foe. Fight and win, or fight and die. No ejection seats. We had a tradition at TOPGUN of instructor staff leaving something for those they leave behind. One officer left a plaque which read, “For those who know, no explanation is necessary. For those who don’t, no explanation is possible.” Amen.

Cheers!