A Grounding At Sea Can Ruin Your Whole Day

I just received a link to a video and narration of the Costa Concordia's track as she ran aground in Italy. I don't think the captain will be able to get out of this one. The track is derived from the ship's AIS transmissions, which include GPS coordinates.

Did he run aground on an uncharted rock? Not exactly.

Worth watching, but not for the faint of heart.

http://gcaptain.com/gcaptains-john-konrad-narrates-the-final-maneuvers-of-the-costa-concordia-video/?37941

The iPhone and America's Discontents

Yesterday's New York Times had a very informative article focused on why iPhones are made in China, not in America. And the answer is, it isn't just about price.

The article explains: "It isn’t just that workers are cheaper abroad. Rather, Apple’s executives believe the vast scale of overseas factories as well as the flexibility, diligence and industrial skills of foreign workers have so outpaced their American counterparts that “Made in the U.S.A.” is no longer a viable option for most Apple products."

In short, at least in Apple's case, it is about quality. And continuous improvement.

For the past two decades, Americans have been misled by a chorus of triumphalist pronouncements about the decline and fall of the Soviet Union. "See," we are told,"communism failed. It can't work. Only capitalism can work, everyone knows that."

Is that so? The last time I checked, the People's Republic of China had a communist government.


So how come they are taking over production of our goods from our industries?


I think they have been paying attention not to the thoughts of Mao, but to the thoughts of W. Edwards Deming.


Read the New York Times article.


I'll share more thoughts later.

Poor Rich People (And Those Who Do Their Whining)

Ari Fleischer has put out some tweets about how the tax burden on the wealthy has grown. Here are some examples:

@AriFleischer The share of total federal tax paid by bottom 60% dropped from 22.5% in '79 to 14.4% today. Source: CBO     

@AriFleischer   The share of total federal tax paid by middle income dropped from 21% in '79 to 16.5% in '07.

@AriFleischer The share of total federal taxes paid by top 10% rose from 40.7% in '79 to 55% in '07.          

The share of total federal taxes paid by top 1% rose from 15.4% in '79 to 28.1% in '07        

What Ari Fleischer omits is that in the same period (1979 to 2007), according to the Congressional Budget Office,  income growth in the US has been distributed as follows:

• 275 percent for the top 1 percent of households,
• 65 percent for the next 19 percent,
• Just under 40 percent for the next 60 percent, and
• 18 percent for the bottom 20 percent. 

Bottom line: The share of all income going to high income households increased, the share going to lower-income households decreased. The truth is, taxes on the wealthy have not gone up in proportion to their wealth or income. The actual numbers are pretty disheartening, but the economist Mark Thoma has helpfully laid them out for us here.

Oriental Town Property Question

"Special Message from the Mayor Concerning the Recent Meeting to Discuss Possible Land Acquisition

Friday, January 13, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Statement of Mayor Bill Sage
Town of Oriental

The Town of Oriental is exploring the possibilities of sale or exchange of property in the vicinity of the west end terminus of South Avenue and Avenue A.  No action was taken by the Town Board of Commissioners at the special meeting held on Friday, January 13, 2012.  In the event the Town receives an offer, such offer will be a public record available for inspection.  Such offer would be taken up at a subsequent public meeting."

 

This becomes curioser and curioser.

More later.

Property Acquisition

Following posted on townoforiental.com

"Subject:  Special Meeting Called


I am calling a special meeting for Friday, January 13, 2012 at 1:00 PM for the purpose of discussing property acquisition and negotiation.  I anticipate that the majority of the meeting will be held in closed session.


Signed,  Mayor Bill Sage"

For information, here is the relevant provision concerning real property acquisition and closed sessions:

"§ 143‑318.11.  Closed sessions.

(a)        Permitted Purposes. – It is the policy of this State that closed sessions shall be held only when required to permit a public body to act in the public interest as permitted in this section. A public body may hold a closed session and exclude the public only when a closed session is required:

(1)        To prevent the disclosure of information that is privileged or confidential pursuant to the law of this State or of the United States, or not considered a public record within the meaning of Chapter 132 of the General Statutes.

(2)        To prevent the premature disclosure of an honorary degree, scholarship, prize, or similar award.

(3)        To consult with an attorney employed or retained by the public body in order to preserve the attorney‑client privilege between the attorney and the public body, which privilege is hereby acknowledged. General policy matters may not be discussed in a closed session and nothing herein shall be construed to permit a public body to close a meeting that otherwise would be open merely because an attorney employed or retained by the public body is a participant. The public body may consider and give instructions to an attorney concerning the handling or settlement of a claim, judicial action, mediation, arbitration, or administrative procedure. If the public body has approved or considered a settlement, other than a malpractice settlement by or on behalf of a hospital, in closed session, the terms of that settlement shall be reported to the public body and entered into its minutes as soon as possible within a reasonable time after the settlement is concluded.

(4)        To discuss matters relating to the location or expansion of industries or other businesses in the area served by the public body, including agreement on a tentative list of economic development incentives that may be offered by the public body in negotiations. The action approving the signing of an economic development contract or commitment, or the action authorizing the payment of economic development expenditures, shall be taken in an open session.

(5)        To establish, or to instruct the public body's staff or negotiating agents concerning the position to be taken by or on behalf of the public body in negotiating (i) the price and other material terms of a contract or proposed contract for the acquisition of real property by purchase, option, exchange, or lease; or (ii) the amount of compensation and other material terms of an employment contract or proposed employment contract.

(6)        To consider the qualifications, competence, performance, character, fitness, conditions of appointment, or conditions of initial employment of an individual public officer or employee or prospective public officer or employee; or to hear or investigate a complaint, charge, or grievance by or against an individual public officer or employee. General personnel policy issues may not be considered in a closed session. A public body may not consider the qualifications, competence, performance, character, fitness, appointment, or removal of a member of the public body or another body and may not consider or fill a vacancy among its own membership except in an open meeting. Final action making an appointment or discharge or removal by a public body having final authority for the appointment or discharge or removal shall be taken in an open meeting.

(7)        To plan, conduct, or hear reports concerning investigations of alleged criminal misconduct.

(8)        To formulate plans by a local board of education relating to emergency response to incidents of school violence.

(9)        To discuss and take action regarding plans to protect public safety as it relates to existing or potential terrorist activity and to receive briefings by staff members, legal counsel, or law enforcement or emergency service officials concerning actions taken or to be taken to respond to such activity.

(b)        Repealed by Session Laws 1991, c. 694, s. 4.

(c)        Calling a Closed Session. – A public body may hold a closed session only upon a motion duly made and adopted at an open meeting. Every motion to close a meeting shall cite one or more of the permissible purposes listed in subsection (a) of this section. A motion based on subdivision (a)(1) of this section shall also state the name or citation of the law that renders the information to be discussed privileged or confidential. A motion based on subdivision (a)(3) of this section shall identify the parties in each existing lawsuit concerning which the public body expects to receive advice during the closed session."

No, I don't know what property is going to be under discussion. For what it's worth, my interpretation of NCGS 143-318.11 is that, while negotiation specifics may be discussed in closed session, identifying the property or indeed discussing the desirability of town acquisition of property are not permitted for discussion in closed session. 

Hungary Update

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban seems well on his way to turning Hungary into an authoritarian dictatorship. In an earlier post, I suggested Hungary was beginning to resemble the authoritarian regime of Admiral Horthy, who led Hungary from 1922 to 1944.

That was a good guess. Viktor Orban himself has called attention to Horthy as a model. The latest report from Hungary by Professor Scheppele is not good. The most hopeful sign is that the EU is calling Hungary to task. Whether the EU's measures will work any better than the timid measures taken by the League of Nations in the 1920's and 1930's is anybody's guess.

What seems clear is that the events in Hungary are a serious threat to democracy in Europe.

The Scientific Method

"First you guess. Don't laugh, this is the most important step. Then you compute the consequences. Compare the consequences to experience. If it disagrees with experience, the guess is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It doesn't matter how beautiful your guess is or how smart you are or what your name is. If it disagrees with experience, it's wrong. That's all there is to it."
-- Richard Feynman, on how to discover a new law of physics

Comment:
I would call it a "conjecture" rather than a guess, but Feynman is right that it is the most important step in discovery. Some inaccurately call the conjecture a "theory." For a theory, there needs to be some data. I think that's what Feynman means by "experience."

More On Why Congress Doesn't Get It

On New Years' Day, the New York Times printed a very thought provoking article on "The Distorted View From Capitol Hill." It's worth reading for yourself, but I offer a brief summary:

The median net worth of members of congress approaches a million dollars and is growing.

The median net worth of all Americans is declining.

Members of congress consort with each other and with other millionaires. Not to mention their staffs.

Representatives can hire up to eighteen personal staffers who answer their beck and call.

Senators have anywhere from twenty-six to sixty personal staffers.

Most don't drive themselves anywhere and never use public transportation. At Washington National Airport, they are treated like royalty.

White residents of Washington DC are better off than those who live in the members' own districts.

Poverty in DC is overwhelmingly a part of the African American experience, not that of whites. As is crime.

Joblessness overwhelmingly affects DC blacks.

None of the perquisites of office would be a problem except the view from Capitol Hill distorts the reality of America.

In the real America, nearly twice as many white Americans are in poverty as black Americans.

In the real America, about the same number of white Americans are in prison as black Americans.

The Times article suggests that isolation in DC is one reason some members of Congress find it so easy to believe that the unemployed are all black folks taking a vacation at public expense; lazy, unambitious freeloaders.

This false picture is not only believed by the millionaires' club that Congress has become - it is seldom contradicted by those in the profession of journalism. If there is such a profession these days.

Who benefits from this false picture and the policies it engenders? Mostly the 1%. Actually the .1%. Those who acquired their wealth the old-fashioned way - inherited it.