Tornado In Woodward: Deja Vu All Over Again

Tonight's news broadcast showed scenes from last night's deadly tornado in Woodward, Oklahoma. No one has seen such destruction, the announcer explained.

Actually, I remember an even bigger tornado that hit Woodward. It was the 9th of April, 1947, just before my tenth birthday. We lived in Midwest City, Oklahoma, just across the highway from Tinker Air Force Base. The next day, the Daily Oklahoman was filled with photographs of the damage. At least 107 lives were lost in Woodward that night, and it looked like the town had been wiped off the map.

The 1947 tornado, rated as F5, killed 69 people in Texas before entering Oklahoma. It was almost two miles wide and stayed on the ground for a distance of 100 miles. It remains the most deadly tornado ever to strike Oklahoma.

Woodward came back after the 1947 twister, and it will do so again.

And in time a new generation will forget it ever happened.

Titanic: Plus ça Change, Plus C'est La Même Chose

A century ago tonight, Royal Mail Ship Titanic struck an iceberg four days into her maiden crossing at 11:40 in the evening. She sank two and a half hours later, taking 1500 souls, including some of the world's wealthiest men, with her.

"Unsinkable ship sinks," the headlines declared.

To be fair, neither the engineers who designed her nor the builders who built her claimed that Titanic was unsinkable. That claim was the work of marketers and writers of advertising copy, who were no more dedicated to truth a century ago than they are today.

But the engineers were guilty of overoptimism about the number of lifeboats needed and the likelihood of rescue in event of a collision or sinking. The captain was guilty of proceeding at too high a speed even after small icebergs had been sighted.

Building a ship,operating it at sea and planning a voyage are always efforts at identifying and counteracting hazards of navigation. Such hazards are more easily identified after a disaster than before.

Planning ahead is an art. In my day, the navy had a word for the process of thinking through what to do in advance of the event: "forehandedness."  It's one of my favorite words.

In our own time, we have seen the loss of Challenger, Columbia, the French Concorde, and countless airliners. All were thought to be safe until the unthinkable happened. The Greeks had a word for the phenomenon of human overreach: hubris.

It is still with us.

Oriental Boat Show

Looks like a good weekend for the Oriental Boat Show. In addition to local boaters, the harbor has also filled up with cruising sailors headed north in the annual migration.

We even have a few shrimp boats in the harbor. Soon we should be back to normal.

Hornet Rendezvous With Enterprise

Early April 13, 1942, USS Hornet, her flight deck crammed with 16 US Army B-25's, sailed north of Midway Island on a westerly course, near the international date line. She was screened by a cruiser and a division of destroyers and accompanied by a fleet oiler. Lookouts scanned the horizon, alert for ships of the Japanese Navy.

"Surface ship broad on the port bow," the lookout reported to the officer of the deck.

"Very well." In fact, Hornet's search radar had been tracking the approaching task force for more than an hour. It was Task Force 16, USS Enterprise accompanied by four destroyers, two cruisers and a fleet oiler, with Vice Admiral William F. Halsey embarked in Enterprise. Halsey assumed operational command of the entire force.

The crews were not yet sure what their task would be. Halsey removed all doubt: "This force is bound for Tokyo."

It had been four months and six days since the attack on Pearl Harbor.

They were still six days short of their planned launch, and there would be several refuelings. Destroyers had to refuel every three days and the cruisers also needed to keep their tanks topped off. The carriers had enough fuel for a 12,000 mile cruise, but they needed to have plenty of Av Gas for the airplanes.

Hornet had already undergone one extraordinary replenishment after leaving San Francisco. Two days out, a navy blimp had been sent to deliver a cargo of vital parts for the Army's B-25's.



Here, USS Hornet in the distance and USS Enterprise in the foreground, with her navy fighters spotted on the flight deck for quick launch in case of need.

We're Number One! [In Low Wage Jobs]

Here's an interesting and discouraging graph, courtesy of economist Mark Thoma.

 He used the graph in a talk at University of Oregon Monday night.

Figures Don't Lie - But Liars Figure

At the Pentagon about budget time, cynical staff officers often observed, "figures don't lie, but liars figure."

We see the same phenomenon at election time, but it seems more and more that liars continue to figure, day in and day out, year in and year out.

Tony Tharp has posted on his web site a helpful antidote to at least some of the lying figures. He also provides a link to his source, here.

Titanic

A hundred years ago, April 10, 1912, RMS Titanic departed from Southampton, England, stopping first at Cherbourg, France, then at Queenstown, Ireland, on her maiden voyage to New York.

She never made it.

Election Preparations

Voters don't need to know how much work goes into preparing for an election. They just need to show up and vote. It should be comforting, though, to know that great effort goes into insuring that their votes are accurately recorded and counted.

Today, and for several more days, the Pamlico County Board of Elections is conducting logic and accuracy testing of our voting machines. The state requires us to test 10% of our machines. In Pamlico County, we test every machine used in the election.

Testing pays off. We have never had a calibration problem with any of our voting machines on election day.