White Births In Minority

In the twelve-month period ending last July, according to the US Census Bureau, there were fewer white babies born in America than those of non white minorities.

Demographers had long expected this to occur, but weren't certain when.

I looked outside this morning. The sky has not yet fallen.

On Line Education

Occasionally Tom Friedman of the New York Times offers an interesting tidbit in his column. Today's tidbit is a reference to a very interesting new company offering high quality on-line education courses. The name of the company is Coursera.

It is worthwhile checking out Coursera's web site and at least looking at the syllabus of some of the course offerings. I saw several tempting courses. One course of particular interest to a wide range of people might be "Health Policy And The Affordable Care Act."

Check out Coursera's site.

In Extremis: Greece and Germany

In the ancient past (when I was learning the nautical rules of the road) we were taught that certain ships had the "right of way" when there was risk of collision while other ships were "burdened."

That terminology is no longer used, but the principal is much the same.

How do you know if there is risk of collision? If the other ship is CBDR - that is, on a constant bearing and decreasing range.

It was the duty of the ship having the right of way to maintain course and speed. It was the duty of the burdened vessel to maneuver to avoid collision.

What if both ships insist that they have the right of way and maintain course and speed? At some point, after sounding warning blasts on the ship's whistle, the ships become so close to each other that the only way to avoid collision is for both ships to act.

That situation was known as being "in extremis."

Greece and the European Central Bank have been on a collision course and now are in extremis. At least if the object is to keep Greece in the Eurozone, both vessels must put the helm over and take up a new course.

But no one is at the helm in Greece nor will anyone take the helm for at least a month. Nor is it apparent who is at the helm of the ECB, but it still looks like Germany has the conn.

Europe may be in for a humongous collision.

It's at least time to check out the life vests and life boats.

Nuclear Weapons Rethink?

Later today, Global Zero, a nuclear weapons organization, will issue a report calling for another significant reduction in our nuclear deterrence. Gen. James E. Cartwright, USMC, the retired vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former commander of the United States’ nuclear forces, has joined with others  calling for reduction in the number of nuclear warheads below the levels set by agreements with Russia.

Five years ago, we learned of the shocking error in our own nuclear force when six nuclear-armed missiles were inadvertently flown from Minot SD to Barksdale AFB Louisiana on a B-52 whose crew thought they were transporting dummy warheads. As I recall, the aircraft and warheads were parked in the open, unguarded, for two days before the error was found.

This incident showed a worrisome degradation in the system of administrative controls in place for nuclear weapons. If you think administrative controls are just boring minutia, you might want to watch the movie "Doctor Strangelove" again.

But the Global Zero report addresses only our strategic weapons. We still have thousands of "tactical" nuclear weapons not only in Europe but also on ships and bases around the world. The smallest of these have nuclear yields on the same order as that of the bomb we dropped on Hiroshima in August, 1945.

Tactical nuclear weapons are not covered by any international arms control agreement. Poland and Norway have asked that NATO consider extending arms control to cover tactical nuclear weapons.

Not a bad idea.

Do we know where our nuclear weapons are?

Time To Undo The Euro?

My wife and I were living in Europe a decade ago when the Euro was introduced. Travel within the Eurozone was much more convenient with a single currency instead of having to convert after crossing every border. But I wondered how the inevitable differences in rates of economic growth would be accommodated.

The answer is now clear: not.

From the outset, some economists warned that the system wouldn't work. Here is an account of how Europe's political leaders ignored the warnings and chose to listen to economists who were more optimistic about the Euro.

The fall of the Euro still seems likely to begin in Greece. Greece's May 6 elections resolved nothing. It has proven impossible to form a government, so new elections will be held next month in hopes a government can be formed this time.

Will Greece default on its debts? It seems likely. Will Greece then leave the Euro zone and return to the drachma? It's really hard to see another realistic possibility.

Will such an event force the European Central Bank and, especially Germany, to rethink its policies of austerity?

Stay tuned.

US Health Care Costs - An Analysis

Why does the US spend more on health care costs than other advanced countries? Another fair question might be, why are our health care outcomes generally worse?

The first question is not of trivial significance. Our health care costs range from 50% to 100% more expensive than other countries offering comparable technological quality of medicine. This is important to current debates on budget priorities, because most of the projected increase in federal budget expenditures over the next few decades results from projected increases in health care costs.

Economist Timothy Taylor has taken a close look at several studies of health care costs here. His conclusion:

"The question of why the U.S. spends more than 50% more per person on health care than the next highest countries (Switzerland and Netherlands), and more than double per person what many other countries spend, may never have a simple answer. Still, the main ingredients of an answer are becoming more clear. The U.S. spends vastly more on hospitalization and acute care, with a substantial share of that going to high-tech procedures like surgery and imaging. The U.S. does a poor job of managing chronic conditions, which then lead to episodes of costly hospitalization. The U.S. also seems to spend vastly more on administration and paperwork, with much of that related to credentialing, documenting, and billing--which is again a particular important issue in hospitals. Any honest effort to come to grips with high and rising U.S. health care costs will have to tackle these factors head-on."

Economics Update - The Austerions

South Avenue Procedure

I understand from Town Dock.net that the Town of Oriental may hold a meeting Thursday, May 17 to hear public comments on the proposed contract with Chris Fulcher.

There are some chicken and egg issues involved here.

Before the town can complete the contract by closing streets, it must hold public hearings. Those hearings require public notice at least four weeks in advance. Here are the relevant provisions from North Carolina General Statutes:

§ 160A‑299.  Procedure for permanently closing streets and alleys.

(a)        When a city proposes to permanently close any street or public alley, the council shall first adopt a resolution declaring its intent to close the street or alley and calling a public hearing on the question.  The resolution shall be published once a week for four successive weeks prior to the hearing, a copy thereof shall be sent by registered or certified mail to all owners of property adjoining the street or alley as shown on the county tax records, and a notice of the closing and public hearing shall be prominently posted in at least two places along the street or alley.  If the street or alley is under the authority and control of the Department of Transportation, a copy of the resolution shall be mailed to the Department of Transportation. At the hearing, any person may be heard on the question of whether or not the closing would be detrimental to the public interest, or the property rights of any individual.  If it appears to the satisfaction of the council after the hearing that closing the street or alley is not contrary to the public interest, and that no individual owning property in the vicinity of the street or alley or in the subdivision in which it is located would thereby be deprived of reasonable means of ingress and egress to his property, the council may adopt an order closing the street or alley.  A certified copy of the order (or judgment of the court) shall be filed in the office of the register of deeds of the county in which the street, or any portion thereof, is located.

(b)        Any person aggrieved by the closing of any street or alley including the Department of Transportation if the street or alley is under its authority and control, may appeal the council's order to the General Court of Justice within 30 days after its adoption.  In appeals of streets closed under this section, all facts and issues shall be heard and decided by a judge sitting without a jury.  In addition to determining whether procedural requirements were complied with, the court shall determine whether, on the record as presented to the city council, the council's decision to close the street was in accordance with the statutory standards of subsection (a) of this section and any other applicable requirements of local law or ordinance.

     No cause of action or defense founded upon the invalidity of any proceedings taken in closing any street or alley may be asserted, nor shall the validity of the order be open to question in any court upon any ground whatever, except in an action or proceeding begun within 30 days after the order is adopted. The failure to send notice by registered or certified mail shall not invalidate any ordinance adopted prior to January 1, 1989.

(c)        Upon the closing of a street or alley in accordance with this section, subject to the provisions of subsection (f) of this section, all right, title, and interest in the right‑of‑way shall be conclusively presumed to be vested in those persons owning lots or parcels of land adjacent to the street or alley, and the title of such adjoining landowners, for the width of the abutting land owned by them, shall extend to the centerline of the street or alley.

The provisions of this subsection regarding division of right‑of‑way in street or alley closings may be altered as to a particular street or alley closing by the assent of all property owners taking title to a closed street or alley by the filing of a plat which shows the street or alley closing and the portion of the closed street or alley to be taken by each such owner.  The plat shall be signed by each property owner who, under this section, has an ownership right in the closed street or alley.

(d)       This section shall apply to any street or public alley within a city or its extraterritorial jurisdiction that has been irrevocably dedicated to the public, without regard to whether it has actually been opened.  This section also applies to unopened streets or public alleys that are shown on plats but that have not been accepted or maintained by the city, provided that this section shall not abrogate the rights of a dedicator, or those claiming under a dedicator, pursuant to G.S. 136‑96.

(e)        No street or alley under the control of the Department of Transportation may be closed unless the Department of Transportation consents thereto.

(f)        A city may reserve its right, title, and interest in any utility improvement or easement within a street closed pursuant to this section. Such reservation shall be stated in the order of closing.  Such reservation also extends to utility improvements or easements owned by private utilities which at the time of the street closing have a utility agreement or franchise with the city.

(g)        The city may retain utility easements, both public and private, in cases of streets withdrawn under G.S. 136‑96.  To retain such easements, the city council shall, after public hearing, approve a "declaration of retention of utility easements" specifically describing such easements.  Notice by certified or registered mail shall be provided to the party withdrawing the street from dedication under G.S. 136‑96 at least five days prior to the hearing.  The declaration must be passed prior to filing of any plat or map or declaration of withdrawal with the register of deeds.  Any property owner filing such plats, maps, or declarations shall include the city declaration with the declaration of withdrawal and shall show the utilities retained on any map or plat showing the withdrawal. (1971, c. 698, s. 1; 1973, c. 426, s. 47; c. 507, s. 5; 1977, c. 464, s. 34; 1981, c. 401; c. 402, ss. 1, 2; 1989, c. 254; 1993, c. 149, s. 1.)