A few weeks ago I posted a link to a commencement address that would never be given. That fictional address by Robert Reich would, if given, have provided a dash of reality for new graduates.
Today I have a link to commencement remarks that were given. These remarks, directed at future Masters Of The Universe, called attention to the great role played in life by luck.
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
70 Years Ago: June 5, 1942: USS Yorktown
In early morning light, USS Yorktown was still afloat. When her commanding officer, Captain Buckmaster, had ordered the ship abandoned the previous day, she had no electrical or steam power, no ability to pump water out of flooded spaces, she was listing 26 degrees and the list appeared to be increasing. The sea was lapping at the edge of the ship's hangar deck. Buckmaster thought it best to abandon ship before dark. The destroyer Hughes stood by the crippled ship.
But the ship survived the night. Maybe she could be saved.
At noon on June 5 USS Vireo, a fleet tug, joined company with Yorktown and Hughes. Preparations were made to tow Yorktown. At 1636 Vireo commenced towing at 2 knots. (Yorktown appeared to be riding easily, but was yawing badly and appeared to be down farther by the bow than when first abandoned.) Later in the afternoon a rescue party was sent aboard Yorktown to jettison loose gear and heavy equipment, including some of the ship's guns.
In the meantime, Captain Buckmaster organized a salvage party and developed a salvage plan for the following day.
But the ship survived the night. Maybe she could be saved.
At noon on June 5 USS Vireo, a fleet tug, joined company with Yorktown and Hughes. Preparations were made to tow Yorktown. At 1636 Vireo commenced towing at 2 knots. (Yorktown appeared to be riding easily, but was yawing badly and appeared to be down farther by the bow than when first abandoned.) Later in the afternoon a rescue party was sent aboard Yorktown to jettison loose gear and heavy equipment, including some of the ship's guns.
In the meantime, Captain Buckmaster organized a salvage party and developed a salvage plan for the following day.
Monday, June 4, 2012
Reflections On A War In Our Own Time
I've been posting updates on the epic of World War II in the Pacific. The Battle of Midway was an enormous victory. Even at the time, though, the victors wondered whether it was due to skill or luck that we prevailed in that battle. We still don't know - a mix, perhaps - but it didn't matter.
However the battle came out, we had vast quantities of war material in production, including more aircraft carriers, planes, tanks, ships and bombs. There was, as Admiral Yamamoto knew full well, no way that Japan could have prevailed against America's might.
The end of the war was not yet in sight. In the Pacific, we could not even say after the battle of Midway that it was the "end of the beginning." Yet in Washington and London, planning was already underway for the end game. Leaders who experienced the collapse of world order after World War I were planning how to have a better outcome this time. We are still living with the fruits of those labors.
But I see no evidence that we are doing any realistic planning for the end game in Afghanistan.
Arguably the task is harder, the complexities greater.
There will be no "unconditional surrender." Who would surrender? And to whom? And surrender what?
Perhaps it is time to declare victory and bring the troops home.
Have parades in Times Square if the troops want it. But it is time to rebuild our own nation.
However the battle came out, we had vast quantities of war material in production, including more aircraft carriers, planes, tanks, ships and bombs. There was, as Admiral Yamamoto knew full well, no way that Japan could have prevailed against America's might.
The end of the war was not yet in sight. In the Pacific, we could not even say after the battle of Midway that it was the "end of the beginning." Yet in Washington and London, planning was already underway for the end game. Leaders who experienced the collapse of world order after World War I were planning how to have a better outcome this time. We are still living with the fruits of those labors.
But I see no evidence that we are doing any realistic planning for the end game in Afghanistan.
Arguably the task is harder, the complexities greater.
There will be no "unconditional surrender." Who would surrender? And to whom? And surrender what?
Perhaps it is time to declare victory and bring the troops home.
Have parades in Times Square if the troops want it. But it is time to rebuild our own nation.
70 Years Ago: June 4, 1942 - Midway Battle Begins
Early on June 4, Japanese oil tanker Akebono Maru sustained the first hit when a torpedo from an attacking PBY Catalina flying boat struck her around 01:00. This would be the only successful air launched torpedo attack by the U.S. during the entire battle. All told, US Navy forces launched nearly fifty torpedoes, and not one exploded against their targets.
Admiral Nagumo launched his air attack on the island of Midway at 0430. Arriving over Midway at 0620, the force of 36 dive bombers, 36 torpedo bombers and 36 fighters did extensive damage to the base. In the meantime, US bombers launched from Midway before the Japanese arrived, attacked the Japanese force. Even though Midway was heavily damaged by the Japanese attack, the base was still operational after the attack and the Japanese flight leader recommended a second attack. Nagumo ordered his loaded anti-shipping aircraft below to the hangar to be reconfigured for another attack on Midway.
This decision was reinforced by the arrival of a second US attack from Midway before the Japanese attackers returned to the carriers. Nagumo was not aware of the presence of a US carrier force until about 0840.
In the meantime, Admiral Fletcher had ordered the launch of aircraft from Hornet and Enterprise at 0700. The first attacking aircraft, TBD Devastator torpedo bombers from Hornet, drew defending Japanese fighters down to deck level about 0920. They were followed by Enterprises devastator squadrons. Losses were heavy, but while the low-level fighting was going on, dive bombers from Enterprise and Yorktown arrived overhead, unnoticed by Japanese fighters, Attacking about 1020, their bombs put Soryu, Kaga and Akagi out of action in just a few minutes.
The fourth Japanese carrier, Hiryu, the only one to survive the morning's action, launched a counterattack, hitting Yorktown with three bombs, following up with an aerial torpedo attack that brought Yorktown to a stop and gave her a 26 degree list.
Late in the afternoon, Enterprise launched a counterattack of dive bombers, leaving Hiryu ablaze and unable to operate aircraft.
As the sun set on June 4, all four Japanese carriers were ablaze and out of action, Yorktown had been abandoned with a 26-degree list, thought to be close to the maximum without capsizing, and the airbase on Midway was still capable of operating aircraft.
Admiral Nagumo launched his air attack on the island of Midway at 0430. Arriving over Midway at 0620, the force of 36 dive bombers, 36 torpedo bombers and 36 fighters did extensive damage to the base. In the meantime, US bombers launched from Midway before the Japanese arrived, attacked the Japanese force. Even though Midway was heavily damaged by the Japanese attack, the base was still operational after the attack and the Japanese flight leader recommended a second attack. Nagumo ordered his loaded anti-shipping aircraft below to the hangar to be reconfigured for another attack on Midway.
This decision was reinforced by the arrival of a second US attack from Midway before the Japanese attackers returned to the carriers. Nagumo was not aware of the presence of a US carrier force until about 0840.
In the meantime, Admiral Fletcher had ordered the launch of aircraft from Hornet and Enterprise at 0700. The first attacking aircraft, TBD Devastator torpedo bombers from Hornet, drew defending Japanese fighters down to deck level about 0920. They were followed by Enterprises devastator squadrons. Losses were heavy, but while the low-level fighting was going on, dive bombers from Enterprise and Yorktown arrived overhead, unnoticed by Japanese fighters, Attacking about 1020, their bombs put Soryu, Kaga and Akagi out of action in just a few minutes.
The fourth Japanese carrier, Hiryu, the only one to survive the morning's action, launched a counterattack, hitting Yorktown with three bombs, following up with an aerial torpedo attack that brought Yorktown to a stop and gave her a 26 degree list.
Late in the afternoon, Enterprise launched a counterattack of dive bombers, leaving Hiryu ablaze and unable to operate aircraft.
As the sun set on June 4, all four Japanese carriers were ablaze and out of action, Yorktown had been abandoned with a 26-degree list, thought to be close to the maximum without capsizing, and the airbase on Midway was still capable of operating aircraft.
Sunday, June 3, 2012
70 Years Ago: First Encounter At Midway
At 0900 June 3, 1942, US Navy PBY-5 Catalina amphibious patrol seaplanes operating from Midway encountered ships of the Japanese invasion force more than 700 miles west of the island. That afternoon, nine US Army B-17 heavy bombers operating from Midway made a high level (20,000 feet altitude) bombing attack on the invasion force. On this occasion, as other incidents early in the Pacific war, B-17's proved ineffective against ships or other moving targets. It would be later in 1942 before US Army air forces modified medium bombers to operate more effectively against ships, using low-level skip bombing tactics. The four USAAF B-26's on Midway had, however, been modified to deliver US Navy air-launched torpedoes.
The Battle of Midway was about aircraft. By the time of the Japanese attack, Midway was defended by its own aircraft as well as those of three aircraft carriers:
Naval Air Station (NAS) Midway operated:
United States Navy
United States Army Air Forces
The Japanese carriers of the Striking Force operated:
Akagi: 60 aircraft
The Battle of Midway was about aircraft. By the time of the Japanese attack, Midway was defended by its own aircraft as well as those of three aircraft carriers:
Naval Air Station (NAS) Midway operated:
United States Navy
United States Army Air Forces
- 4 B-26 Marauder, medium bombers (configured with air-launched torpedoes)
- 17 B-17 Flying Fortress, heavy bombers
- 27 Douglas SBD-2 Dauntless, dive bombers
- 17 Chance-Vought SB2U-3 Vindicator, dive bombers
- 21 Brewster F2A Buffalo, fighters
- 7 Grumman F4F-3A Wildcat, fighters
- 1 light utility aircraft
- 25 Grumman F4F-4 Wildcat, fighters
- 37 Douglas SBD-3 Dauntless, dive bombers
- 14 Douglas TBD-1 Devastator, torpedo bombers
- 27 Grumman F4F-4 Wildcat, fighters
- 37 Douglas SBD-2 Dauntless, dive bombers
- 14 Douglas TBD-1 Devastator, torpedo bombers
- 27 Grumman F4F-4 Wildcat, fighters
- 35 Douglas SBD-3 Dauntless, dive bombers
- 15 Douglas TBD-1 Devastator, torpedo bombers
The Japanese carriers of the Striking Force operated:
Akagi: 60 aircraft
- 24 A6M Zero, fighters
- 18 Aichi D3A, dive bombers
- 18 Nakajima B5N, torpedo bombers
- 27 A6M Zero, fighters
- 18 Aichi D3A, dive bombers
- 27 Nakajima B5N, torpedo bombers
- 2 Aichi D3A, dive bombers (cargo, likely non-operational)
- 21 A6M Zero, fighters
- 18 Aichi D3A, dive bombers
- 18 Nakajima B5N, torpedo bombers
- 21 A6M Zero, fighters
- 16 Aichi D3A, dive bombers
- 18 Nakajima B5N, torpedo bombers
- 2 Yokosuka D4Y-1C, pre-series dive bombers (experimental recon aircraft)
- Japanese Battleships and Cruisers: 16 recon floatplanes, most of them short-ranged (5 Aichi E13A, 10 Nakajima E8N, 1 Aichi E11A)
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Why The US Does Work: Case Of Florida
You hear a lot of negative things about income redistribution. Complaints about redistributing earnings of hard-working Americans to lazy ones. What you don't hear much about, but is more significant, is redistribution from wealthy states and regions to regions that would otherwise remain persistent pockets of poverty.
Take Florida, for example. When I first saw Florida in 1940, north Florida was about as poor as Mississippi. But federal funds have changed that. And even in bad economic times, federal programs have kept the state out of the kind of economic death spiral that happened in the early 30's.
Between 2007 and 2010, the collapse of the housing boom in Florida was about as bad as the collapse in Spain. But Florida's unemployment rate, which topped out at about 12%, is now at about 9%. Spain's is approaching 24%, with youth unemployment at 50%. So why the difference? Federal transfers (not loans). Paul Krugman has done a back of the envelope calculation and estimates that between 2007 and 2010, the federal government transferred to Florida the equivalent of 4% of Florida's gross domestic product.
I think Krugman's figures are way too low. He leaves off Medicaid, for example. But he also omits the impact of the Army, Navy and Air Force and their associated defense contractors in Florida. If you travel along the coast of Florida from Mayport at the mouth of the St John's River south past Canaveral and Lauderdale to Key West and back up the west coast past McDill and Panama City to Pensacola, you are almost never out of sight of a military installation. It wouldn't surprise me if that doubles the federal contribution to Florida's GDP.
Florida is by no means unique, and in fact is not among the top recipients of federal transfers in terms of percentage. Back in April, economist Uwe Reinhardt explained in detail how rich states subsidize poor ones and why that's a good thing.
"The table below, based on data regularly assembled by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, convey a feel for the direction of these transfers. The data clearly identify donor and recipient states.
Take Florida, for example. When I first saw Florida in 1940, north Florida was about as poor as Mississippi. But federal funds have changed that. And even in bad economic times, federal programs have kept the state out of the kind of economic death spiral that happened in the early 30's.
Between 2007 and 2010, the collapse of the housing boom in Florida was about as bad as the collapse in Spain. But Florida's unemployment rate, which topped out at about 12%, is now at about 9%. Spain's is approaching 24%, with youth unemployment at 50%. So why the difference? Federal transfers (not loans). Paul Krugman has done a back of the envelope calculation and estimates that between 2007 and 2010, the federal government transferred to Florida the equivalent of 4% of Florida's gross domestic product.
I think Krugman's figures are way too low. He leaves off Medicaid, for example. But he also omits the impact of the Army, Navy and Air Force and their associated defense contractors in Florida. If you travel along the coast of Florida from Mayport at the mouth of the St John's River south past Canaveral and Lauderdale to Key West and back up the west coast past McDill and Panama City to Pensacola, you are almost never out of sight of a military installation. It wouldn't surprise me if that doubles the federal contribution to Florida's GDP.
Florida is by no means unique, and in fact is not among the top recipients of federal transfers in terms of percentage. Back in April, economist Uwe Reinhardt explained in detail how rich states subsidize poor ones and why that's a good thing.
"The table below, based on data regularly assembled by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, convey a feel for the direction of these transfers. The data clearly identify donor and recipient states.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Why The Euro Can't Work
In recent posts, I've been more than a bit pessimistic about the Euro. So is Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, and for much the same reason.
Today, Atlantic shows some of those reasons in a really humorous graph. Whether you believe the Euro is doomed as the article says, depends on whether the Eurozone can create a fiscal union as well as a currency union. I believe that was Mario Draghi's message yesterday.
One paragraph from the Atlantic article really caught my attention:
"If you find yourself wondering, as I did, how the 50 states within the U.S. would compare across this measure of dispersion [within the Eurozone], remember that the nice thing about the United States is that baked into the first word of our name is not only a monetary union (i.e.: we all use dollars) but also a fiscal union. If Mississippi has a bad year (or decade, or century), Washington doesn't debate whether we should force the state to raise taxes or cut spending to become more competitive. We just keep paying it Medicaid, which is basically a transfer from rich Americans to poor Americans, many of whom live in Mississippi."
I would only point out that in our past history prior to the New Deal, the transfer (as during the Whiskey Rebellion) was more frequently from poor Americans and poor regions to rich Americans living in wealthy regions. Those are the thrilling days of yesteryear to which our top .1% want us to return.
Today, Atlantic shows some of those reasons in a really humorous graph. Whether you believe the Euro is doomed as the article says, depends on whether the Eurozone can create a fiscal union as well as a currency union. I believe that was Mario Draghi's message yesterday.
One paragraph from the Atlantic article really caught my attention:
"If you find yourself wondering, as I did, how the 50 states within the U.S. would compare across this measure of dispersion [within the Eurozone], remember that the nice thing about the United States is that baked into the first word of our name is not only a monetary union (i.e.: we all use dollars) but also a fiscal union. If Mississippi has a bad year (or decade, or century), Washington doesn't debate whether we should force the state to raise taxes or cut spending to become more competitive. We just keep paying it Medicaid, which is basically a transfer from rich Americans to poor Americans, many of whom live in Mississippi."
I would only point out that in our past history prior to the New Deal, the transfer (as during the Whiskey Rebellion) was more frequently from poor Americans and poor regions to rich Americans living in wealthy regions. Those are the thrilling days of yesteryear to which our top .1% want us to return.
Troubles In Dollarland
I wish I could say I'm surprised at today's employment report from the Labor Department. I feared the increases in private employment might not reach the levels many economists predicted. What I didn't expect is the reduction in figures for April from 115,000 to just 77,000. As one observer lamented, it looks like the labor market has not yet achieved "escape velocity."
Use of the figures by republicans as a partisan club was perfectly predictable. Since republicans have uniformly opposed every measure democrats have proposed to improve the jobs picture, their complaints fall in the category of the fellow who killed his parents and threw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan.
We didn't need to be in this pickle. We don't have a federal deficit crisis - we have a jobs crisis. Vigorous efforts to use government spending programs to increase aggregate demand and thereby increase opportunities for business could have us back near full employment by now.
The problems in Europe aren't helping.
Paul Krugman explains what is happening.
Use of the figures by republicans as a partisan club was perfectly predictable. Since republicans have uniformly opposed every measure democrats have proposed to improve the jobs picture, their complaints fall in the category of the fellow who killed his parents and threw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan.
We didn't need to be in this pickle. We don't have a federal deficit crisis - we have a jobs crisis. Vigorous efforts to use government spending programs to increase aggregate demand and thereby increase opportunities for business could have us back near full employment by now.
The problems in Europe aren't helping.
Paul Krugman explains what is happening.
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