News from Goldman Sachs: Federal Deficit Rapidly Shrinking

It turns out that on a twelve-month average basis, federal outlays in nominal (constant) dollars have fallen for the first time since rapid demobilization after the Korean War. Here's the story.

Bottom line: there is no federal debt crisis. There is still a jobs crisis.

Our political leadership continues to worry about the wrong thing.

By the way, putting people back to work will bring the deficit down even further and faster.

Speaking Of Elections: Hayes - Tilden 1876

Economic historian Brad DeLong has raised another interesting question: "why did the Republicans in 1876 abandon their most reliable supporters in the South (African Americans) for small gains that put Benjamin Hayes in the White House?" The negotiated outcome of this, one of the most contentious elections in US history, ended any effective Federal oversight of the South for nearly a century.

Another historian provides a plausible answer.

It remained for Lyndon Johnson to undo the Republican capitulation of 1876. The Republican Party then promptly recruited Southern racists to their own cause.

As Mississippi Goes, So Goes...

When Haley Barbour of Yazoo City, Mississippi (where my father was born in 1915 and my brother in 1941) was appointed Chair of the Republican National Committee in 1993, astonished journalists asked how this came about. Haley Barbour replied that "the rest of the country is following in Mississippi's footsteps," or words to that effect.

Oriental resident (or former resident gone cruising) Tony Tharp, calls attention today to an article in the Jackson Clarion Ledger blog site describing just where those footsteps lead. Tony, a native son of the Mississippi Delta (near Leland, MS along US Highway 82), often reflects on past and current developments in the state.

North Carolina Election Law

The North Carolina General Assembly is considering more than sixty bills that would change the way elections are conducted in the state, plus more than a dozen measures that would call for constitutional amendment votes in 2014.

One of the most consequential bills for Pamlico County is House Bill 607, which passed the House on April 9. This bill decrees the use of paper ballots in all elections in North Carolina. If adopted, it will abolish the use of the Ivotronics Direct Record Election (DRE) touch-screen machines in use in Pamlico County since 2006.

The bill requires that these machines no longer be used for elections beginning January 1, 2014. In other words, we would have to replace the machines in time for the next Congressional election, including the primary election, about a year from now.

That's a tall order, and an expensive one.

In Pamlico County, we like our Ivotronics machines. But they will need to be replaced in three to five years, whether HB 607 becomes law or not. Technology marches on and parts are no longer being made.

Still, DRE machines have advantages.

Training For Election Officials

Training for North Carolina election officials ended early this afternoon in Concord.

Some of the training was done by experts brought in from the world of education and training to improve our ability to prepare precinct officials to insure effective elections. The morning's expert, after enlightening us on the techniques of Andragogy (you can look it up), admitted that she had learned a lot. "I vote," she said. "I walk up to the scanner with my paper ballot, put it in the slot, and it says "whoosh.'"

"I had no idea until this week," she admitted, "what goes on behind the scenes. Thank you all for what you do."

I will have more to say after I study the election bills submitted to the General Assembly. Some have already been passed. Many of the bills seem based on what some legislators imagine goes on behind the scenes rather than actual knowledge.

The pending bill I most strongly support is H38. If adopted, it will eliminate second primaries. Good idea.

Who Are The Tyrants?

Churchill saw Tyranny as the foe.

So who were the tyrants?

Economic historian Brad DeLong has a very interesting blog post today on the history of Tyrants, especially twentieth century tyrants.

His essay is worth reading. Just as worthy of attention are the many well-argued comments others have posted taking exception to or modifying many of the points DeLong makes.

Churchill: "Tyranny Is Our Foe"

In 1943, Winston Churchill was awarded an honorary degree by Harvard University. Churchill spoke at the ceremony, emphasizing the importance of a common effort by English-speaking peoples because of their shared traditions of freedom.

"We do not war," he said, "with races....Tyranny is our foe, whatever trappings or disguise it wears, whatever language it speaks, be it external or internal, we must forever be on our guard, ever mobilized, ever vigilant, always ready to spring at its throat. Not only do we march and strive shoulder to shoulder at this moment under the fire of the enemy on the fields of war or in the air, but also in those realms of thought which are consecrated to the rights and dignity of man."

Let us not forget.

North Carolina Legislature

I first visited North Carolina in 1955. I was a student at the University of Mississippi. A year earlier, in Greenwood, Mississippi, the town where I started to school in the first grade in 1943, a prominent local citizen started the White Citizen's Council.

North Carolina was a very different place. It stood out as a southern oasis. North Carolina had men and women of vision. A manifestation of that vision was the election of Terry Sanford as governor in 1960.

I was happy to move here after I retired. Decent people. Progressive initiatives like the Research Triangle. Fine institutions of higher education. University of North Carolina. Duke. A fine community College System. Sailors. Good public schools. Efforts to improve the environment. One of the best election systems in the nation. Thoughtful public officials dedicated to making the state an even better place to live.

Earlier this evening, I watched the weekly legislative summary on public television. I had already read some of the bills introduced in the state legislature. What I heard and read brings back recollections of Mississippi in the 1940's and 1950's.

That isn't where North Carolina needs to go.