This weekend I did a lot of channel surfing. Each Memorial Day, we are treated to a variety of war movies - mainly World War II movies. It was a good review of events.
Some thoughts:
1. The Republican candidate for president, who has never served in public office (elected or appointed) or in the military, claims he is equipped to be president because he attended a private military high school.
No he isn't.
More to the point, to even utter such a claim reveals an incredible level of contempt for the profession of arms and the skill and knowledge of the Americans who practice it.
2. Over the past few days, I re watched "The Longest Day" and "A Bridge Too Far." a good contrast between the results of good military planning (D-Day) and over-optimistic and over-confident planning (Operation Market Garden).
Over confidence isn't uncommon in human conflict. A recent example was when George W. Bush's chicken hawk staff dismissed General Shinseki's estimate of the requirements to occupy Iraq. Apparently they thought Shinseki just scribbled a guess on the back of an envelope. That's not how professional military planners work. Shinseki's was a staff estimate, not a guess. And it was pretty accurate.
3. Our Constitution establishes civilian control of the military. For this to work, we can't require presidents to themselves be military professionals. But they need to take the profession seriously and to treat the profession with respect.
That's a challenge.
Monday, May 30, 2016
Friday, May 20, 2016
Where Hillary is Coming From
Some Young people don't identify with Hillary Clinton. They should. The days Hillary Clinton lived through could come back again. Without an Equal Rights Amendment, there's no guarantee they won't.
Here's some background: "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/opinion/campaign-stops/what-my-mother-sees-in-hillary.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region."
Here's some background: "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/22/opinion/campaign-stops/what-my-mother-sees-in-hillary.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region."
Saturday, May 14, 2016
West Virginia and Kentucky Coal Mining Jobs - What Really Caused Job Loss?
My grandfather was a coal miner.
He started working in the mines in 1902, as soon as he turned 16.
There weren't any other jobs in Palo Pinto County, Texas, even then, for a young man with a third grade education, but that was as far as Texas public education went.
Labor saving devices consisted of mules, who became blind in the perpetual darkness of the mine shafts.
My grandfather lost his job in 1917.
Why? Technology.
In 1917, the mine's only customer, the Texas and Pacific Railroad,began converting its steam locomotives from coal-fired to oil-fired. Over the next year, the coal mines shut down all nineteen shafts at the Thurber mine.
That's not all.
In 1916, the US Navy took delivery of its first oil-fired battleship and never built another coal-fired one.
In one fell swoop, the Navy got rid of its biggest logistical and strategic problem and saved money at the same time. No longer did they have to worry about coaling stations. After entering World War I in 1917, the US Navy quickly addressed underway refueling.
The first operational underway replenishment was achieved by the United States Navy oiler USS Maumee. Following the declaration of war, 6 April 1917, she was assigned duty refueling at sea the destroyers being sent to Britain. Stationed about 300 miles south of Greenland, Maumee was ready for the second group of U.S. ships to be sent as they closed her 28 May. With the fueling of those six destroyers, Maumee pioneered the Navy’s underway refueling operations under the direction of Maumee's Chief Engineer Chester Nimitz, thus establishing a pattern of mobile logistic support which would enable the Navy to keep its fleets at sea for extended periods, with a far greater range independent of the availability of a friendly port.
After WWI most navies pursued the refueling of destroyers and other small vessels by either the alongside or astern method, convinced that larger warships could neither be effectively refueled astern nor safely refueled alongside, until a series of tests conducted by Rear Admiral Nimitz in 1939-40 perfected the rigs and shiphandling which made the refueling of any size vessel practical.
Japan continued to use astern refueling of small ships, which slowed down her surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. The US Navy had already perfected the alongside method, which proved crucial to operations in the Pacific. The Soviet Union also continued to use the astern method.
From 1923, about the time my grandfather came out of the mine shafts for the last time, coal mining entered a long period of decline:
1923 704,793
1943 418,703
1953 293,106
1963 141,646
1973 148,121
1983 175,642
1993 101,322
2003 71,023
2010 86,195
2011 88,000
2013 80,396
2014 74,931
I'm pretty sure my grandfather didn't know about the effect that changes in battleship design had on the market for coal, but since coal mining was the only job he knew, he went looking for another one. He found a coal mine in Tulsa, Oklahoma, beneath what is now the state fairgrounds. By 1923, he decided it was too dangerous in the mines and became a chauffeur instead.
In 1917, reductions in coal mining reflected replacement of coal by oil for many heavy energy users.
The current reduction in coal mining may stem from a similar cause. The New York Times recently reported: "The most immediate challenge to the coal industry is the hydraulic fracturing revolution that has produced a glut of natural gas over the last four years, making the fuel cheaper to burn and stimulating a relentless switch by utilities away from coal." Regulation changes may have little to do with it.
Nevertheless, it matters little to miners who have lost jobs.
Maybe we need to think more creatively about what miners do or can do.
For example, can miners operate heavy equipment for other purposes than removing coal from the ground? What can miners build that needs building? What can miners dig that needs digging?
Government planners, scientists and economists should be able to foresee where the world is going and how to use existing skills to go there. We should be able to foresee what skills will be needed in the future and to develop them.
By and large, such planning tasks are beyond the ability of private businesses worried about quarterly profits.
We need a long term vision.
We once had such people.
He started working in the mines in 1902, as soon as he turned 16.
There weren't any other jobs in Palo Pinto County, Texas, even then, for a young man with a third grade education, but that was as far as Texas public education went.
Labor saving devices consisted of mules, who became blind in the perpetual darkness of the mine shafts.
My grandfather lost his job in 1917.
Why? Technology.
In 1917, the mine's only customer, the Texas and Pacific Railroad,began converting its steam locomotives from coal-fired to oil-fired. Over the next year, the coal mines shut down all nineteen shafts at the Thurber mine.
That's not all.
In 1916, the US Navy took delivery of its first oil-fired battleship and never built another coal-fired one.
In one fell swoop, the Navy got rid of its biggest logistical and strategic problem and saved money at the same time. No longer did they have to worry about coaling stations. After entering World War I in 1917, the US Navy quickly addressed underway refueling.
The first operational underway replenishment was achieved by the United States Navy oiler USS Maumee. Following the declaration of war, 6 April 1917, she was assigned duty refueling at sea the destroyers being sent to Britain. Stationed about 300 miles south of Greenland, Maumee was ready for the second group of U.S. ships to be sent as they closed her 28 May. With the fueling of those six destroyers, Maumee pioneered the Navy’s underway refueling operations under the direction of Maumee's Chief Engineer Chester Nimitz, thus establishing a pattern of mobile logistic support which would enable the Navy to keep its fleets at sea for extended periods, with a far greater range independent of the availability of a friendly port.
After WWI most navies pursued the refueling of destroyers and other small vessels by either the alongside or astern method, convinced that larger warships could neither be effectively refueled astern nor safely refueled alongside, until a series of tests conducted by Rear Admiral Nimitz in 1939-40 perfected the rigs and shiphandling which made the refueling of any size vessel practical.
Japan continued to use astern refueling of small ships, which slowed down her surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. The US Navy had already perfected the alongside method, which proved crucial to operations in the Pacific. The Soviet Union also continued to use the astern method.
From 1923, about the time my grandfather came out of the mine shafts for the last time, coal mining entered a long period of decline:
1923 704,793
1943 418,703
1953 293,106
1963 141,646
1973 148,121
1983 175,642
1993 101,322
2003 71,023
2010 86,195
2011 88,000
2013 80,396
2014 74,931
I'm pretty sure my grandfather didn't know about the effect that changes in battleship design had on the market for coal, but since coal mining was the only job he knew, he went looking for another one. He found a coal mine in Tulsa, Oklahoma, beneath what is now the state fairgrounds. By 1923, he decided it was too dangerous in the mines and became a chauffeur instead.
In 1917, reductions in coal mining reflected replacement of coal by oil for many heavy energy users.
The current reduction in coal mining may stem from a similar cause. The New York Times recently reported: "The most immediate challenge to the coal industry is the hydraulic fracturing revolution that has produced a glut of natural gas over the last four years, making the fuel cheaper to burn and stimulating a relentless switch by utilities away from coal." Regulation changes may have little to do with it.
Nevertheless, it matters little to miners who have lost jobs.
Maybe we need to think more creatively about what miners do or can do.
For example, can miners operate heavy equipment for other purposes than removing coal from the ground? What can miners build that needs building? What can miners dig that needs digging?
Government planners, scientists and economists should be able to foresee where the world is going and how to use existing skills to go there. We should be able to foresee what skills will be needed in the future and to develop them.
By and large, such planning tasks are beyond the ability of private businesses worried about quarterly profits.
We need a long term vision.
We once had such people.
Monday, May 2, 2016
America First?
When I first heard Donald Trump use the slogan "America First," I wondered if anyone working on his campaign was aware of the history of the "America First Committee" and what a discredited slogan that became after Pearl Harbor.
Last week, Rachel Maddow on MSNBC explained the sordid history of "America First" so that anyone should be able to understand not to use it: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-invokes-infamous-america-first-slogan-675190851964.
Apparently Donald Trump doesn't get it.
For those unfamiliar with the history, here is Wikipedia's brief account: "The AFC was established on September 4, 1940, by Yale Law School student R. Douglas Stuart, Jr. (son of R. Douglas Stuart, co-founder of Quaker Oats), along with other students, including future President Gerald Ford, future Peace Corps director Sargent Shriver, and future U.S. Supreme Court justice Potter Stewart. Future President John F. Kennedy contributed $100, along with a note saying "What you all are doing is vital." At its peak, America First claimed 800,000 dues-paying members in 450 chapters, located mostly in a 300-mile radius of Chicago." The
Not content with using a discredited slogan, last week Trump gave what was presented as a major foreign policy address. Slate's Fred Kaplan commented that the speech, read from a teleprompter, "—was even more incoherent than his impromptu ramblings of the past several months. In fact, it may stand as the most senseless, self-contradicting foreign policy speech by any major party’s presidential nominee in modern history."
I take exception to Kaplan/s remark, but only because Trump is not yet a "major party's presidential nominee. It may seem like splitting hairs, but Trump is not the nominee until the Republican convention declares him the nominee.
That being said, if Trump is nominated, he will easily qualify as the most ignorant presidential candidate since I started noticing such things around 1940.
How do I know? National security policy and international relations have been my profession for more than sixty years. And I was paying attention long before that.
Believe me!
Last week, Rachel Maddow on MSNBC explained the sordid history of "America First" so that anyone should be able to understand not to use it: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-invokes-infamous-america-first-slogan-675190851964.
Apparently Donald Trump doesn't get it.
For those unfamiliar with the history, here is Wikipedia's brief account: "The AFC was established on September 4, 1940, by Yale Law School student R. Douglas Stuart, Jr. (son of R. Douglas Stuart, co-founder of Quaker Oats), along with other students, including future President Gerald Ford, future Peace Corps director Sargent Shriver, and future U.S. Supreme Court justice Potter Stewart. Future President John F. Kennedy contributed $100, along with a note saying "What you all are doing is vital." At its peak, America First claimed 800,000 dues-paying members in 450 chapters, located mostly in a 300-mile radius of Chicago." The
Not content with using a discredited slogan, last week Trump gave what was presented as a major foreign policy address. Slate's Fred Kaplan commented that the speech, read from a teleprompter, "—was even more incoherent than his impromptu ramblings of the past several months. In fact, it may stand as the most senseless, self-contradicting foreign policy speech by any major party’s presidential nominee in modern history."
I take exception to Kaplan/s remark, but only because Trump is not yet a "major party's presidential nominee. It may seem like splitting hairs, but Trump is not the nominee until the Republican convention declares him the nominee.
That being said, if Trump is nominated, he will easily qualify as the most ignorant presidential candidate since I started noticing such things around 1940.
How do I know? National security policy and international relations have been my profession for more than sixty years. And I was paying attention long before that.
Believe me!
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
Jackie Robinson, American
Last night and tonight we watched the Ken Burns documentary about Jackie Robinson.
The movie reminded me not only what a great athlete he was, but what a strong-willed and courageous man. And his wife Rachel was extraordinary.
Born in 1919, son of a sharecropper, grandson of a slave, a man of skill and determination.
Last night's episode showed the baseball season of 1947 when Robinson joined the Brooklyn Dodgers and led them to the World Series.
I was ten years old and was learning the finer points of the game.
We lived in Midwest City, Oklahoma, east of Oklahoma City, just across the street from Tinker Air Force base, where my father was stationed. He managed the base fast-pitch softball team, and taught me the finer points of the rules, including how to keep score. I became the team's official scorekeeper.
We went into Oklahoma City a few times to watch the Oklahoma City Indians play in the Texas League. I kept a score card for those games as well, and that summer listened to major league games over the Mutual Broadcasting System. That's how I knew about Jackie Robinson.
We all knew that Jackie Robinson was a negro and that he played for the Dodgers.
The significance of a negro playing in the major leagues went over my head. It was just a fact that I knew. I didn't know if there were others or if there would be others. I just knew that he was a good player and clearly belonged there.
My fifth grade teacher was a baseball fan. All of the games were played during the day but the teacher brought her radio to class and let us listen to the game.
Since I knew how to keep score, I drew a giant score card on the black board and recorded everything that happened.
I rooted for the Dodgers, but it didn't matter. On Monday, October 6 the Yankees on the seventh and final game at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
Jackie Robinson got seven hits, stole two bases and scored three runs in his first World Series.
The movie reminded me not only what a great athlete he was, but what a strong-willed and courageous man. And his wife Rachel was extraordinary.
Born in 1919, son of a sharecropper, grandson of a slave, a man of skill and determination.
Last night's episode showed the baseball season of 1947 when Robinson joined the Brooklyn Dodgers and led them to the World Series.
I was ten years old and was learning the finer points of the game.
We lived in Midwest City, Oklahoma, east of Oklahoma City, just across the street from Tinker Air Force base, where my father was stationed. He managed the base fast-pitch softball team, and taught me the finer points of the rules, including how to keep score. I became the team's official scorekeeper.
We went into Oklahoma City a few times to watch the Oklahoma City Indians play in the Texas League. I kept a score card for those games as well, and that summer listened to major league games over the Mutual Broadcasting System. That's how I knew about Jackie Robinson.
We all knew that Jackie Robinson was a negro and that he played for the Dodgers.
The significance of a negro playing in the major leagues went over my head. It was just a fact that I knew. I didn't know if there were others or if there would be others. I just knew that he was a good player and clearly belonged there.
My fifth grade teacher was a baseball fan. All of the games were played during the day but the teacher brought her radio to class and let us listen to the game.
Since I knew how to keep score, I drew a giant score card on the black board and recorded everything that happened.
I rooted for the Dodgers, but it didn't matter. On Monday, October 6 the Yankees on the seventh and final game at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
Jackie Robinson got seven hits, stole two bases and scored three runs in his first World Series.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Je Suis Belge
Terrible news from Belgium this morning.
We lived in Belgium for three years and have many friends there.
Good people.
The airport at Zaventem near Brussels was our closest international airport. Went in and out of Zaventem many times.
We also lived for a year in Paris. Bad times there as well.
By the way, Belgium is not a stranger to terrorism. In 1979, General Alexander Haig was completing a five-year stint as Supreme Allied Commander, Europe. He was driven each day from his Chateau to his office at Supreme Headquarters, Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) at very high speed along a route that varied from day to day among a small number of fixed routes. His last day in office was to be June 25, 1979. A group of assassins positioned a bomb along one of the routes and waited patiently for the general to select that route. On June 25, Haig unknowingly selected the route with the bomb. His staff car, traveling at very high speed along narrow Belgian roads, followed closely by a car full of body guards, crossed over a bridge with a land mine. The mine was detonated just after the rear tires crossed over the mine. General Haig's car sped away undamaged, but the chase car crashed into the crater, wounding three of Haig's bodyguards.
The general's only business that day was to deliver a farewell address to the officers on the SHAPE staff. As he stepped up to the podium, he announced: "I can't tell you how glad I am to be here today!" The assembled officers roared with laughter.
Authorities later attributed responsibility for the attack to the Red Army Faction (RAF). In 1993 a German Court sentenced Rolf Clemens Wagner, a former RAF member, to life imprisonment for the assassination attempt.
We lived in Belgium for three years and have many friends there.
Good people.
The airport at Zaventem near Brussels was our closest international airport. Went in and out of Zaventem many times.
We also lived for a year in Paris. Bad times there as well.
By the way, Belgium is not a stranger to terrorism. In 1979, General Alexander Haig was completing a five-year stint as Supreme Allied Commander, Europe. He was driven each day from his Chateau to his office at Supreme Headquarters, Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) at very high speed along a route that varied from day to day among a small number of fixed routes. His last day in office was to be June 25, 1979. A group of assassins positioned a bomb along one of the routes and waited patiently for the general to select that route. On June 25, Haig unknowingly selected the route with the bomb. His staff car, traveling at very high speed along narrow Belgian roads, followed closely by a car full of body guards, crossed over a bridge with a land mine. The mine was detonated just after the rear tires crossed over the mine. General Haig's car sped away undamaged, but the chase car crashed into the crater, wounding three of Haig's bodyguards.
The general's only business that day was to deliver a farewell address to the officers on the SHAPE staff. As he stepped up to the podium, he announced: "I can't tell you how glad I am to be here today!" The assembled officers roared with laughter.
Authorities later attributed responsibility for the attack to the Red Army Faction (RAF). In 1993 a German Court sentenced Rolf Clemens Wagner, a former RAF member, to life imprisonment for the assassination attempt.
Friday, March 11, 2016
Precursors to Trump
The first election I remember is 1948. Republicans were certain of victory. President Truman was not as popular as Roosevelt had been. The country had had a Democratic party president since 1932. The Democratic party had split into three parts: (1) the Democratic Party (which dominated in the South and was the party of white supremacy); (2) the Progressive Party, headed by former Vice President Henry Wallace of Iowa; (3) the State's Rights Party headed by Strom Thurmond of South Carolina.
The deck seemed stacked against Truman.
But Truman ran a very vigorous and effective campaign while the Republican Dewey played it safe.
Not only did Truman win the presidential election, the Democratic Party regained control of both houses of Congress.
This outcome shocked the leadership of the Republican party.
I don't remember any charges that the Democrats had stolen the election.
Republicans addressed the issue of how they could have lost a sure thing.
Across the South, beginning in Virginia in 1950, Republicans began recruiting white supremacists from the Democrats. They believed it was their only chance.
They went after the young folks. By 1954, they were using charges of corruption to enhance their recruitment efforts. Even so, it was clear that it was not corruption, but racial concerns that formed the basis of Republican recruitment.
Then came the Supreme Court decision in Brown vs. Board of Education.
Recruitment of white supremacist Democrats stepped up an has not diminished to this day.
Donald Trump and his staff understand this.
The Republicans have long since become the White Supremacist Party.
The deck seemed stacked against Truman.
But Truman ran a very vigorous and effective campaign while the Republican Dewey played it safe.
Not only did Truman win the presidential election, the Democratic Party regained control of both houses of Congress.
This outcome shocked the leadership of the Republican party.
I don't remember any charges that the Democrats had stolen the election.
Republicans addressed the issue of how they could have lost a sure thing.
Across the South, beginning in Virginia in 1950, Republicans began recruiting white supremacists from the Democrats. They believed it was their only chance.
They went after the young folks. By 1954, they were using charges of corruption to enhance their recruitment efforts. Even so, it was clear that it was not corruption, but racial concerns that formed the basis of Republican recruitment.
Then came the Supreme Court decision in Brown vs. Board of Education.
Recruitment of white supremacist Democrats stepped up an has not diminished to this day.
Donald Trump and his staff understand this.
The Republicans have long since become the White Supremacist Party.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Donald Trump - Replay of Gorgeous George?
 |
| Gorgeous George |
One of the problems of growing older is that one remembers too much.
As I watch and listen to the commentariat puzzle over the Donald Trump phenomenon, it occurs to me that Trump is following the very successful model of the professional wrestler, Gorgeous George.
You can look it up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorgeous_George
My original observation was that watching Trump strut about the stage, arms akimbo, he bears a great resemblance to the fascist dictator, Benito Mussolini. There's some truth to that, as well.
I think the main difference is that Mussolini took himself and his outrageous fantasies seriously. Gorgeous George did not. He knew he was putting on a show.
The big question is, does Donald Trump understand this?
Who knows? Gorgeous George turned professional wrestling into a great, money-making show in the early days of television. It was also a fantasy show for children.
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