The people of Oklahoma, my home state, are strong, patient and persistent. They live in tornado country. After every big tornado comes through, they pick up the pieces and start over again.
Tornadoes aren't like hurricanes. No weather service can predict the path of a tornado, how big it will be, how long it will be on the ground. No house of mere wood and brick can withstand a tornado as strong as the one that struck Moore, Oklahoma yesterday.
It has been always thus.
That's why, when I was a child in rural parts of the state, every farm, every large building, every school, had a storm shelter.
I once attended a two-room, four grade school, a large white-painted frame building with an out house in the back. We had a storm shelter.
Another school I attended, East of Oklahoma City, held eight grades in six classrooms, and had an underground storm shelter big enough for all the students, the teachers and the residents of about a dozen nearby houses.
It was good to know which of your neighbors had storm shelters.
When the weather was right for tornadoes (and we could tell) we would stand outside and watch the gathering clouds, especially those of a greenish hue with tendrils reaching down toward the ground. As the clouds approached, we would debate whether to go to the school and seek shelter.
I remember photographs in the Daily Oklahoman in 1947 when a massive tornado destroyed the town of Woodward, west of Oklahoma City. The town rebuilt.
I was living in Tulsa in 1999 when the last big twister hit Moore and damaged other towns all along the Turnpike between Oklahoma City and Tulsa.
That being said, while admiring the pluck of the people, I am appalled at the indifference of their elected leaders.
Why did the two elementary schools in Moore that Monday's tornado decimated not have storm shelters?
This is inexcusable.
Sixty-five years ago, Oklahomans knew how to protect their school children.
This is not the sort of thing a state's leaders should forget.
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Friday, May 10, 2013
Why Did The Soviet Union Fall Apart?
Over the past two decades, several inaccurate narratives have dominated public discourse about the former Soviet Union's demise.
The first narrative is that President Reagan ordered Mikhail Gorbachov to "tear down this wall" and the Berlin Wall came down. Kind of like Joshua's trumpet.
The second narrative is that the Soviet Union fell apart because of the failure of Central Planning, also known as the "Command Economy."
Both narratives appeal to widespread prejudices rather than objective evaluation of both the accomplishments and the failures of the Soviet system. Contributing to both successes and failures was the complexity of the "nationality question" during both the Soviet period and during the preexisting Russian Empire.
Following the Russian Civil War and the Polish invasion of Russia, Lenin introduced his "New Economic Policy" (NEP). NEP allowed a considerable amount of free enterprise, including farming. It apparently worked pretty well. But the leadership became rightfully concerned about increasing turmoil in Europe and began the collectivization campaign at least in part to support the Soviet Union's ability to mobilize its natural resources for war. Any examination of Soviet economic policy during that period has to address such questions as whether NEP could plausibly have prepared for war with Germany.
As for the larger issue of the Command Economy, economic historian Brad DeLong recently posted an essay of his from seventeen years ago, examining the corporation as a command economy. This is a good corrective to analyses that draw large distinctions between Western industry and Soviet Central Planning.
Many years ago, I attended a lecture by Alexander Kerensky, the second Prime Minister of the Russian Provisional Government of 1917, which was overthrown by the Bolshevik Revolution of October. Kerensky contended that the Soviet Union's economy was not a Socialist one, but an example of what he called "State Capitalism." He autographed a copy of his book, which is still in my library. It may be worth rereading.
It is time to take another look at the issues presented by seventy-five years of Soviet history.
The first narrative is that President Reagan ordered Mikhail Gorbachov to "tear down this wall" and the Berlin Wall came down. Kind of like Joshua's trumpet.
The second narrative is that the Soviet Union fell apart because of the failure of Central Planning, also known as the "Command Economy."
Both narratives appeal to widespread prejudices rather than objective evaluation of both the accomplishments and the failures of the Soviet system. Contributing to both successes and failures was the complexity of the "nationality question" during both the Soviet period and during the preexisting Russian Empire.
Following the Russian Civil War and the Polish invasion of Russia, Lenin introduced his "New Economic Policy" (NEP). NEP allowed a considerable amount of free enterprise, including farming. It apparently worked pretty well. But the leadership became rightfully concerned about increasing turmoil in Europe and began the collectivization campaign at least in part to support the Soviet Union's ability to mobilize its natural resources for war. Any examination of Soviet economic policy during that period has to address such questions as whether NEP could plausibly have prepared for war with Germany.
As for the larger issue of the Command Economy, economic historian Brad DeLong recently posted an essay of his from seventeen years ago, examining the corporation as a command economy. This is a good corrective to analyses that draw large distinctions between Western industry and Soviet Central Planning.
Many years ago, I attended a lecture by Alexander Kerensky, the second Prime Minister of the Russian Provisional Government of 1917, which was overthrown by the Bolshevik Revolution of October. Kerensky contended that the Soviet Union's economy was not a Socialist one, but an example of what he called "State Capitalism." He autographed a copy of his book, which is still in my library. It may be worth rereading.
It is time to take another look at the issues presented by seventy-five years of Soviet history.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Wisdom From The Great Depression
Next year, the University of California Press is bringing out a new edition of the late economist Charles Kindleberger's influential and illuminating book analyzing the great depression.
In World in Depression, 1929-1939, published in 1973, Kindleberger examined the history of international trade, finance and macroeconomics during the heart of the Great Depression. Anyone with an interest in such matters should welcome the new edition.
Kindleberger would doubtless, were he alive today, notice the alarming parallels between the decade about which he wrote and our own times. The similarities are not reassuring.
Economic historians Brad DeLong and Barry Eichengreen have written a new preface to the book. DeLong has posted the it on his blog here. The new introduction is well worth reading in its own right. Anyone reading the it who also follows international events cannot help but be concerned.
As one might expect of economists, the new preface focuses on economic processes.
I could not help but reflect, however, on the interaction between the political world of 1929-1939 and the economic world. Kindleberger focuses on the lack of international economic leadership. There was at least an equal failure of leadership in the sphere of international political relations.
I hope we are not in for a rerun.
Read the new preface!
In World in Depression, 1929-1939, published in 1973, Kindleberger examined the history of international trade, finance and macroeconomics during the heart of the Great Depression. Anyone with an interest in such matters should welcome the new edition.
Kindleberger would doubtless, were he alive today, notice the alarming parallels between the decade about which he wrote and our own times. The similarities are not reassuring.
Economic historians Brad DeLong and Barry Eichengreen have written a new preface to the book. DeLong has posted the it on his blog here. The new introduction is well worth reading in its own right. Anyone reading the it who also follows international events cannot help but be concerned.
As one might expect of economists, the new preface focuses on economic processes.
I could not help but reflect, however, on the interaction between the political world of 1929-1939 and the economic world. Kindleberger focuses on the lack of international economic leadership. There was at least an equal failure of leadership in the sphere of international political relations.
I hope we are not in for a rerun.
Read the new preface!
Wage Stagnation And The Sequester: It Would Help To Be Noticed
Economist Mark Thoma has an interesting observation about the relative weight of impacts of the sequester: "If wage stagnation and growing inequality," he says, "somehow caused flight delays
and other inconveniences for those who are doing okay -- the people with
the most political power -- maybe we'd put more effort into doing
something about it."
Here's what economist Jared Bernstein has to say about the issue.
Here's what economist Jared Bernstein has to say about the issue.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Krugman Is Right - But It May Not Make A Difference
Business Insider has a well-written article summarizing the intellectual triumph of those economists like Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong who advocated more economic stimulus instead of more austerity.
Readers of my blog know I have agreed with that assessment all along. But I have to take issue with part of the BI article. "Over the course of this debate," the article emphasized, "evidence has gradually piled up that, however well-intentioned they might be, the "Austerians" were wrong."
Readers of my blog know I have agreed with that assessment all along. But I have to take issue with part of the BI article. "Over the course of this debate," the article emphasized, "evidence has gradually piled up that, however well-intentioned they might be, the "Austerians" were wrong."
Saturday, April 13, 2013
The Anecdote Gap
Brad DeLong posts a comment by economist Evan Soltas from this week's conference of economic bloggers.
Soltas bemoans the fact that politicians extol anecdotes, often untrue anecdotes, in preference to data. He is right, but there may be no way to fix the problem.
Humans seem favorably disposed to storytelling. In every sense of the word. Many, if not most, on the other hand, have difficulty getting their head around statistics. Even when the statistics are graphically displayed.
Not even Presidential Candidate Ross Perot succeeded in combining the two skills.
Unfortunately, skill with anecdote leads to bad policy.
As we used to say in the Pentagon: "figures don't lie, but liars figure." Even worse, if a problem can't be described by anecdote, it all too often isn't addressed at all.
Soltas bemoans the fact that politicians extol anecdotes, often untrue anecdotes, in preference to data. He is right, but there may be no way to fix the problem.
Humans seem favorably disposed to storytelling. In every sense of the word. Many, if not most, on the other hand, have difficulty getting their head around statistics. Even when the statistics are graphically displayed.
Not even Presidential Candidate Ross Perot succeeded in combining the two skills.
Unfortunately, skill with anecdote leads to bad policy.
As we used to say in the Pentagon: "figures don't lie, but liars figure." Even worse, if a problem can't be described by anecdote, it all too often isn't addressed at all.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Churchill: "Tyranny Is Our Foe"
In 1943, Winston Churchill was awarded an honorary degree by Harvard University. Churchill spoke at the ceremony, emphasizing the importance of a common effort by English-speaking peoples because of their shared traditions of freedom.
"We do not war," he said, "with races....Tyranny is our foe, whatever trappings or disguise it wears, whatever language it speaks, be it external or internal, we must forever be on our guard, ever mobilized, ever vigilant, always ready to spring at its throat. Not only do we march and strive shoulder to shoulder at this moment under the fire of the enemy on the fields of war or in the air, but also in those realms of thought which are consecrated to the rights and dignity of man."
Let us not forget.
"We do not war," he said, "with races....Tyranny is our foe, whatever trappings or disguise it wears, whatever language it speaks, be it external or internal, we must forever be on our guard, ever mobilized, ever vigilant, always ready to spring at its throat. Not only do we march and strive shoulder to shoulder at this moment under the fire of the enemy on the fields of war or in the air, but also in those realms of thought which are consecrated to the rights and dignity of man."
Let us not forget.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Senate Bill 58 - Boat Registration Fees
A few days ago I posted an item on Senate Bill 58, cosponsored by State Senator Norm Sanderson. The bill will vastly increase boat registration fees in North Carolina.
The bill raises questions about just what is meant by representation in a democracy. In a different context, Senator Sanderson has explained that he "represents all of the people of North Carolina." I think that constitutes a misunderstanding of "representation." It may be true that Sanderson is paid by the people of North Carolina. In that sense, he works for them. But he represents the voters of his senate district, who elected him to this office, whether they voted for him or against him.
Oriental resident Jim Barton has published an eloquent letter to Senator Sanderson raising a number of good questions about Senate Bill 58. Captain Barton, who has also spoken in opposition to ferry tolls for our commuter ferries, is a Republican who voted for Sanderson. But his comment is pointed: "We want a State Senator who, in fact, represents our interests and communicates with his constituency." He urges the Senator to communicate more clearly with his constituents.
The bill raises questions about just what is meant by representation in a democracy. In a different context, Senator Sanderson has explained that he "represents all of the people of North Carolina." I think that constitutes a misunderstanding of "representation." It may be true that Sanderson is paid by the people of North Carolina. In that sense, he works for them. But he represents the voters of his senate district, who elected him to this office, whether they voted for him or against him.
Oriental resident Jim Barton has published an eloquent letter to Senator Sanderson raising a number of good questions about Senate Bill 58. Captain Barton, who has also spoken in opposition to ferry tolls for our commuter ferries, is a Republican who voted for Sanderson. But his comment is pointed: "We want a State Senator who, in fact, represents our interests and communicates with his constituency." He urges the Senator to communicate more clearly with his constituents.
What's Happening In The States?
A good article in today's New York Times by columnist Bill Keller examines how it comes about that there is such a wide variation in laws passed recently by state legislatures. Equally puzzling is the national gridlock in the Congress.
Keller describes a number of alternate explanations offered by political scientists. I find one explanation is probably the most accurate: political outcomes are determined by an activist elite of about 15 percent of the populace, combined with a largely indifferent public. Or maybe it isn't that the public is indifferent. Maybe it is that they are confused and ill-informed.
How to address that may be the greatest challenge to democracy in today's world.
Keller describes a number of alternate explanations offered by political scientists. I find one explanation is probably the most accurate: political outcomes are determined by an activist elite of about 15 percent of the populace, combined with a largely indifferent public. Or maybe it isn't that the public is indifferent. Maybe it is that they are confused and ill-informed.
How to address that may be the greatest challenge to democracy in today's world.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
World Wide Shortages: Wisdom, Compassion, Humanity
"Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?"
Axel Oxenstierna, Chancellor of Sweden to his son (1648).
I reflect on this quote from time to time and conclude that nothing has changed since 1648. That was about two decades before my first European ancestor arrived in Virginia.
I would like to believe that the American Experience has added to the world's stock of wisdom, but the more I study our own history, the less my confidence in that hope.
Still, I think it is at least a mixed bag. Some wisdom, some foolishness, some downright selfishness and inhumanity.
Today's Washington Post has a very illuminating article on the SNAP program (formerly known as Food Stamps) in Woonsocket, Rhode Island. The article is worth reading for a number of reasons. First, it illuminates the amount of work that poor families have to go through to take advantage of SNAP. more importantly, it makes it clear that SNAP is much more than a program assisting individuals and families. It keeps whole communities alive.
Without safety net programs like SNAP, even more small businesses would have closed and small towns across the land would have become ghost towns. As the article explains:
"At precisely one second after midnight, on March 1, Woonsocket would experience its monthly financial windfall — nearly $2 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. Federal money would be electronically transferred to the broke residents of a nearly bankrupt town, where it would flow first into grocery stores and then on to food companies, employees and banks, beginning the monthly cycle that has helped Woonsocket survive."
More importantly, programs like SNAP, Unemployment compensation, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security help us avoid persistent regions of deep poverty and hunger that once existed across Appalachia and other rural areas of the country.
But if you read the article, be sure to also read and reflect on the many mean-spirited comments made by Washington Post readers.
And ask yourselves the question: "What kind of country do we want to be when we grow up?"
Axel Oxenstierna, Chancellor of Sweden to his son (1648).
I reflect on this quote from time to time and conclude that nothing has changed since 1648. That was about two decades before my first European ancestor arrived in Virginia.
I would like to believe that the American Experience has added to the world's stock of wisdom, but the more I study our own history, the less my confidence in that hope.
Still, I think it is at least a mixed bag. Some wisdom, some foolishness, some downright selfishness and inhumanity.
Today's Washington Post has a very illuminating article on the SNAP program (formerly known as Food Stamps) in Woonsocket, Rhode Island. The article is worth reading for a number of reasons. First, it illuminates the amount of work that poor families have to go through to take advantage of SNAP. more importantly, it makes it clear that SNAP is much more than a program assisting individuals and families. It keeps whole communities alive.
Without safety net programs like SNAP, even more small businesses would have closed and small towns across the land would have become ghost towns. As the article explains:
"At precisely one second after midnight, on March 1, Woonsocket would experience its monthly financial windfall — nearly $2 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. Federal money would be electronically transferred to the broke residents of a nearly bankrupt town, where it would flow first into grocery stores and then on to food companies, employees and banks, beginning the monthly cycle that has helped Woonsocket survive."
More importantly, programs like SNAP, Unemployment compensation, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security help us avoid persistent regions of deep poverty and hunger that once existed across Appalachia and other rural areas of the country.
But if you read the article, be sure to also read and reflect on the many mean-spirited comments made by Washington Post readers.
And ask yourselves the question: "What kind of country do we want to be when we grow up?"
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Is The Pope Italian?
It is by now an old joke. For much of my life, a response to an obvious question (one to which the answer might be: "duh?") would be, instead, "is the Pope Catholic?" The joke was modified after the first Polish Pope, to: "Is the Pope Italian?" To which, of course, the right answer was no longer "yes!" That continued to be the case after Cardinal Ratzinger was elected to the Papacy.
Now things are a bit more complicated. Pope Francis I (nee Bergoglio) is the son of Italian immigrants to Argentina. In at least the sense of ethnicity, the Pope is Italian.
More worthy of concern is that the Pope is Argentine. Remember the "disappeared" and Argentina's "dirty war" of kidnapping, torture and murder of leftists? There has long been information that the hands of Argentina's Catholic hierarchy were not clean in this matter. How about Bergoglio?
Today, Pope Francis I is being described as more concerned than many of his predecessors about poverty and injustice. Let us hope this is so.
The brutal Argentine military dictatorship ended thirty years ago. Many Argentine institutions were compromised by their actions during that period, not least the Argentine Navy. Maybe Francis I can lead Argentines in a final refutation of that period. That would be a good thing.
Here are a few links to articles about Argentine Catholics, including Bergoglio, during the dictatorship:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2011/jan/04/argenitina-videla-bergoglio-repentance
http://gregmitchellwriter.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-pope-and-shame-of-argentina.html
http://en.mercopress.com/2012/07/24/argentine-military-dictator-confirms-catholic-church-hierarchy-was-well-aware-of-the-disappeared
http://americasouthandnorth.wordpress.com/2013/03/13/on-the-selection-of-jorge-mario-bergoglio-as-pope-francisco/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/pope-francis-is-known-for-simplicity-and-humility.php
Now things are a bit more complicated. Pope Francis I (nee Bergoglio) is the son of Italian immigrants to Argentina. In at least the sense of ethnicity, the Pope is Italian.
More worthy of concern is that the Pope is Argentine. Remember the "disappeared" and Argentina's "dirty war" of kidnapping, torture and murder of leftists? There has long been information that the hands of Argentina's Catholic hierarchy were not clean in this matter. How about Bergoglio?
Today, Pope Francis I is being described as more concerned than many of his predecessors about poverty and injustice. Let us hope this is so.
The brutal Argentine military dictatorship ended thirty years ago. Many Argentine institutions were compromised by their actions during that period, not least the Argentine Navy. Maybe Francis I can lead Argentines in a final refutation of that period. That would be a good thing.
Here are a few links to articles about Argentine Catholics, including Bergoglio, during the dictatorship:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2011/jan/04/argenitina-videla-bergoglio-repentance
http://gregmitchellwriter.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-pope-and-shame-of-argentina.html
http://en.mercopress.com/2012/07/24/argentine-military-dictator-confirms-catholic-church-hierarchy-was-well-aware-of-the-disappeared
http://americasouthandnorth.wordpress.com/2013/03/13/on-the-selection-of-jorge-mario-bergoglio-as-pope-francisco/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/pope-francis-is-known-for-simplicity-and-humility.php
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Does The US Need A Different Layout Of States?
Today's New York Times web site posted a very interesting analysis of the electoral college by Nate Silver on his blog, Five Thirty-Eight. The article's headline, "Did Democrats Get Lucky In The Electoral College?" doesn't convey the depth and innovation of the analysis.
The most interesting component of the analysis is a map of the United States redrawn into fifty states, each with equal population. The point of the map is to illustrate the effect such redrawn boundaries would have on the outcome of the electoral college.
Nate Silver's discussion of the electoral college and the associated issues of reapportionment and redistricting is among the best I have ever read. I like the map, but also like a table in the article showing the distribution of population within each state into urban, suburban and rural. Not unsurprisingly, Wyoming is the most rural state in the union. Vermont is the least urban, followed by Mississippi with only 4% urban population.
As I looked at the map, I was also struck by its resemblance to a concept put forth by George Kennan in his 1993 book "Around The Cragged Hill." In short, Kennan believed the United States was so big as to be ungovernable. He proposed that a better scheme would be to split the country apart into what amounted to city-states.
Years later, others picked up on Kennan's idea and began pushing a movement to promote the idea of states seceding from the Union. Then again, maybe they didn't even know about Kennan's ideas.
The most interesting component of the analysis is a map of the United States redrawn into fifty states, each with equal population. The point of the map is to illustrate the effect such redrawn boundaries would have on the outcome of the electoral college.
Nate Silver's discussion of the electoral college and the associated issues of reapportionment and redistricting is among the best I have ever read. I like the map, but also like a table in the article showing the distribution of population within each state into urban, suburban and rural. Not unsurprisingly, Wyoming is the most rural state in the union. Vermont is the least urban, followed by Mississippi with only 4% urban population.
As I looked at the map, I was also struck by its resemblance to a concept put forth by George Kennan in his 1993 book "Around The Cragged Hill." In short, Kennan believed the United States was so big as to be ungovernable. He proposed that a better scheme would be to split the country apart into what amounted to city-states.
Years later, others picked up on Kennan's idea and began pushing a movement to promote the idea of states seceding from the Union. Then again, maybe they didn't even know about Kennan's ideas.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
A Three Cent Stamp Costs 46 Cents?
I can remember when a first class stamp cost 3 cents. We didn't call them "first class stamps" - we called them "three-cent stamps.".
In those days in the 40's and 50's, a candy bar, Pepsi or ice cream cone cost a nickel. From 1932 until 1958, a regular first class stamp cost 3 cents. From 1928 to 1952, a post card cost one cent to mail. Air Mail cost more, depending on weight and distance.
Now, not only has postage gone up to 46 cents for a 3 cent stamp, a nickel Pepsi or Hershey Bar cost over a dollar, and a nickel ice cream cone is a buck and a half.
According to conservative opponents who are trying to kill the Postal Service, curtail service and take away our local post offices, the USPS is bankrupt.
Jim Hightower has the real story here.
In those days in the 40's and 50's, a candy bar, Pepsi or ice cream cone cost a nickel. From 1932 until 1958, a regular first class stamp cost 3 cents. From 1928 to 1952, a post card cost one cent to mail. Air Mail cost more, depending on weight and distance.
Now, not only has postage gone up to 46 cents for a 3 cent stamp, a nickel Pepsi or Hershey Bar cost over a dollar, and a nickel ice cream cone is a buck and a half.
According to conservative opponents who are trying to kill the Postal Service, curtail service and take away our local post offices, the USPS is bankrupt.
Jim Hightower has the real story here.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Virginia Republican House Speaker Shows Integrity And Class
Republican Representative William Howell, Speaker of the Virginia House of Representatives, ruled that a Senate redistricting bill which had been added to a bill calling for minor “technical adjustments” to House districts. Virginia Senate Republicans tacked on a 36-page floor amendment that redrew
Senate lines across the state. That amendment, Howell ruled, was not
germane to the original bill.
The redistricting plan, which received national attention when Virginia Republicans took advantage of the absence of a Democrat regarded as a civil rights leader, who was away attending President Obama’s inauguration. The measure likely would have passed in the House had it gone to the floor for a vote. But Speaker Howell had the power to make it go away. Had it passed the House, it would almost certainly have led to a court challenge, since the Virginia Constitution stipulates that redistricting be done the year following the decennial census.
It's a pleasure to read of an action based on a legislative official's sense of integrity. Well done, Speaker Howell!
The redistricting plan, which received national attention when Virginia Republicans took advantage of the absence of a Democrat regarded as a civil rights leader, who was away attending President Obama’s inauguration. The measure likely would have passed in the House had it gone to the floor for a vote. But Speaker Howell had the power to make it go away. Had it passed the House, it would almost certainly have led to a court challenge, since the Virginia Constitution stipulates that redistricting be done the year following the decennial census.
It's a pleasure to read of an action based on a legislative official's sense of integrity. Well done, Speaker Howell!
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Too Many Choices?
My wife is from Texas. When I was stationed in a distant location, she would write home and ask for a "care package" of essentials, including Ro-Tel tomatoes, an essential ingredient in chili con queso. There was never any confusion. Go to the store, find the canned tomato section and pick out one or more cans of Ro-Tel tomatoes.
No more. Now we have choices. There are at least four recipes of Ro-Tel tomatoes. Plus Ro-Tel tomato sauces. I have to read the labels. Before, if we wanted to spice up the con queso, we could add stuff to the tomatoes: a bit of lime juice, some chopped up cilantro, maybe some more jalapenos.
What if none of the four recipes is exactly what I want? Then I can add spices, just like I used to.
Am I happier? Not necessarily. Has life improved now that the various recipes are canned by Nebraska food conglomerate ConAgra instead of some small outfit in Texas?
Is it possible to have too many choices?
Take a look at the rest of the cans in the tomato section. Several different brands. All offer canned, peeled, whole tomatoes, crushed tomatoes, diced tomatoes (with and without peppers), reduced sodium tomatoes, tomatoes with and without basil, plum tomatoes, round tomatoes. More labels to read.
How many years has it been since the US Supreme Court decided I need more choices in my telephone service? I stubbornly stayed with AT&T. I can't have them for land line, but my wireless and e-mail service are with AT&T.
I know people who change their wireless service at the slightest whiff of a possibly better deal. I prefer stability. I still get occasional e-mails from people I haven't heard from in decades.
Works for me.
The problem is, I feel afflicted, not freed, by the multiplicity of choices I have to make. All these choices appear to have been inflicted upon us by the children of Tom Brokaw's "greatest generation." I have a hard time accepting that characterization. I think the baby boomers are arguably the worst generation. Self-centered. Not all of them. Some of our children fall in that cohort. They aren't self centered. But many are and they have dominated markets and dominated intellectual and political discourse for too long.
We hear a lot of assertion of rights. Currently it's about "our second amendment rights." We hear very little discussion about obligations.
Society is the poorer for the absence of such discourse.
All is not lost. At least one author has undertaken a thoughtful examination of choices and markets. He is a Canadian scientist, and I just came across a link to the first chapter of his new book, No One Makes You Shop At Wal-Mart. Check it out.
No more. Now we have choices. There are at least four recipes of Ro-Tel tomatoes. Plus Ro-Tel tomato sauces. I have to read the labels. Before, if we wanted to spice up the con queso, we could add stuff to the tomatoes: a bit of lime juice, some chopped up cilantro, maybe some more jalapenos.
What if none of the four recipes is exactly what I want? Then I can add spices, just like I used to.
Am I happier? Not necessarily. Has life improved now that the various recipes are canned by Nebraska food conglomerate ConAgra instead of some small outfit in Texas?
Is it possible to have too many choices?
Take a look at the rest of the cans in the tomato section. Several different brands. All offer canned, peeled, whole tomatoes, crushed tomatoes, diced tomatoes (with and without peppers), reduced sodium tomatoes, tomatoes with and without basil, plum tomatoes, round tomatoes. More labels to read.
How many years has it been since the US Supreme Court decided I need more choices in my telephone service? I stubbornly stayed with AT&T. I can't have them for land line, but my wireless and e-mail service are with AT&T.
I know people who change their wireless service at the slightest whiff of a possibly better deal. I prefer stability. I still get occasional e-mails from people I haven't heard from in decades.
Works for me.
The problem is, I feel afflicted, not freed, by the multiplicity of choices I have to make. All these choices appear to have been inflicted upon us by the children of Tom Brokaw's "greatest generation." I have a hard time accepting that characterization. I think the baby boomers are arguably the worst generation. Self-centered. Not all of them. Some of our children fall in that cohort. They aren't self centered. But many are and they have dominated markets and dominated intellectual and political discourse for too long.
We hear a lot of assertion of rights. Currently it's about "our second amendment rights." We hear very little discussion about obligations.
Society is the poorer for the absence of such discourse.
All is not lost. At least one author has undertaken a thoughtful examination of choices and markets. He is a Canadian scientist, and I just came across a link to the first chapter of his new book, No One Makes You Shop At Wal-Mart. Check it out.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Senate Reforms
The good news is that the United States senate adopted some reformed procedures to tackle grid lock.
The bad news is that the changes were pretty weak and unlikely to do the job.
I could be wrong.
But I don't think so.
The bad news is that the changes were pretty weak and unlikely to do the job.
I could be wrong.
But I don't think so.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Gnomes Of Frankfurt
The Deutsche Bundesbank wants its gold back. At least they want back half of their gold reserves presently held by the New York Fed.
Will we soon be talking about the "gnomes of Frankfurt" instead of the "gnomes of Zurich?"
Do I hear echos of The Hobbit? "My precioussss!"
What is the Bundesbank up to? Economist Antonio Fatas wonders.
"I am really curious," Fatas writes, "about what (doomsday) scenarios [Bundesbank Board member Thiele]...has in mind" when he explains:"to hold gold as a central bank creates confidence. We build trust at home and have the possibility to exchange gold at short notice into foreign currency abroad." Fatas asks what circumstances the Germans fear "where the gold reserves of the Bundesbank would become crucial to restore confidence. By the way, the gold reserves of the Bundesbank which at 130 Billion Euros are large compared to other central banks seem small compared to many other magnitudes that matter in financial markets, more so during crisis time. And I am assuming that these scenarios are catastrophic, otherwise why would gold be needed to buy foreign currency. And given that they are thinking that those scenarios are likely, is there anything that they are planning to deal with them?"
John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have observed ninety or so years ago, that "gold is a barbarous relic."
The "gold bugs" of his day and of our own have never forgiven him.
The Washington Post offers one possible explanation for the Bundesbank's action. The Post article also explains why such a move is quite rare. It turns out to be much easier to move some gold bars from one nation's cage to another cage to keep track of transactions than to ship the bars across oceans.
So the actual gold bars are used much like poker chips or other tokens.
Will we soon be talking about the "gnomes of Frankfurt" instead of the "gnomes of Zurich?"
Do I hear echos of The Hobbit? "My precioussss!"
What is the Bundesbank up to? Economist Antonio Fatas wonders.
"I am really curious," Fatas writes, "about what (doomsday) scenarios [Bundesbank Board member Thiele]...has in mind" when he explains:"to hold gold as a central bank creates confidence. We build trust at home and have the possibility to exchange gold at short notice into foreign currency abroad." Fatas asks what circumstances the Germans fear "where the gold reserves of the Bundesbank would become crucial to restore confidence. By the way, the gold reserves of the Bundesbank which at 130 Billion Euros are large compared to other central banks seem small compared to many other magnitudes that matter in financial markets, more so during crisis time. And I am assuming that these scenarios are catastrophic, otherwise why would gold be needed to buy foreign currency. And given that they are thinking that those scenarios are likely, is there anything that they are planning to deal with them?"
John Maynard Keynes is supposed to have observed ninety or so years ago, that "gold is a barbarous relic."
The "gold bugs" of his day and of our own have never forgiven him.
The Washington Post offers one possible explanation for the Bundesbank's action. The Post article also explains why such a move is quite rare. It turns out to be much easier to move some gold bars from one nation's cage to another cage to keep track of transactions than to ship the bars across oceans.
So the actual gold bars are used much like poker chips or other tokens.
The natives of Yap figured out a similar scheme long ago:
It turns out that stone tokens work just as well as gold bars.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
How To Return To Full Employment (And Why It Matters)
I've been blogging on the subject of austerity and why it is a bad idea right now for a long time. It's hard to explain in ten words or less.
Now economist Robert Pollin has provided a pretty digestible explanation. Complete with illuminating graphs.
Worth a read.
Everyone in the political class, both US and European, should read it.
And act on it.
Now, now, now!
Now economist Robert Pollin has provided a pretty digestible explanation. Complete with illuminating graphs.
Worth a read.
Everyone in the political class, both US and European, should read it.
And act on it.
Now, now, now!
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Debt Ceiling: Economic Experts View
What do economic experts say about the debt ceiling? IGM recently polled a panel of economists.
The question: "Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes."
Eighty-four percent of the panel either agreed or strongly agreed. When the responses were weighted by economists' confidence in their responses, the outcome was ninety-seven percent.
In other words, economists overwhelmingly believe the debt ceiling makes no sense.
I agree.
The question: "Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes."
Eighty-four percent of the panel either agreed or strongly agreed. When the responses were weighted by economists' confidence in their responses, the outcome was ninety-seven percent.
In other words, economists overwhelmingly believe the debt ceiling makes no sense.
I agree.
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Scratch The Platinum Coin Idea
“Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve believes that
the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum
coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit,” a spokesman for the US Treasury said today.
No detailed explanation was provided.
Economist Tim Duy explains, in essence, that the reason is not that the scheme wouldn't work - the reason not to do it is that it would.
Duy explains: "Bottom Line: The platinum coin idea was ultimately doomed to failure because neither the Federal Reserve nor the Treasury could allow for even the remote possibility it might be successful. Its success would not just alter the political dynamic by removing the the debt ceiling as a threat. The success of a platinum coin would fundamentally alter the conventional wisdom about the proper separation of fiscal and monetary policy and the need to control the debt immediately."
The explanation is a little complicated, but Duy spells it out here. In essence, when interest rates are at zero and the monetary authority can't make them any lower and the economy persistently stagnates, there is NO DIFFERENCE between money and debt. And there is no reason to feel any urgency about reducing debt right NOW, NOW, NOW.
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
No detailed explanation was provided.
Economist Tim Duy explains, in essence, that the reason is not that the scheme wouldn't work - the reason not to do it is that it would.
Duy explains: "Bottom Line: The platinum coin idea was ultimately doomed to failure because neither the Federal Reserve nor the Treasury could allow for even the remote possibility it might be successful. Its success would not just alter the political dynamic by removing the the debt ceiling as a threat. The success of a platinum coin would fundamentally alter the conventional wisdom about the proper separation of fiscal and monetary policy and the need to control the debt immediately."
The explanation is a little complicated, but Duy spells it out here. In essence, when interest rates are at zero and the monetary authority can't make them any lower and the economy persistently stagnates, there is NO DIFFERENCE between money and debt. And there is no reason to feel any urgency about reducing debt right NOW, NOW, NOW.
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
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