Seventy Years Ago: Noumea Harbor

September 21, 1942: The troop ships carrying the 27th Air Depot Group to the South Pacific steamed around the point and entered the harbor of Noumea, New Caledonia.

The ships had left San Francisco on September first and crossed the equator ten days earlier, on September 11. The embarked Army Air Forces personnel outnumbered the sailors aboard, so the crossing-the-line ceremony was fairly perfunctory. Even so, King Neptune made his anticipated appearance on each ship.

Master Sergeant Cox, untroubled by motion sickness, whiled away the hours playing cards and rolling dice. It had been a profitable passage. When not involved in games of chance, he stood watch at the guns mounted on the weather deck, so he was in position to see what transpired.

As the ships headed into harbor, he saw buildings burning, fire fighters trying to control the flames. Other ships already at anchor blinked messages at the new arrivals with signal lights. Instead of easing into assigned amchorages, the new arrivals milled about and headed back out to sea.

"Jap air raid," the messages said. "Don't anchor here. They are coming back."

The formation headed back out to sea, looking for the Australian escort ship they had been promised. Sailors and soldiers crowded the rails searching for the ship. "There she is!" One soldier cried out. "Where?"

White caps made it hard to see. They were expecting a destroyer or, perhaps a cruiser. The soldier kept insisting he saw it.

The long Pacific rollers swept by from astern, lifting the troop ships. From the top of the swell, Sergeant Cox suddenly spotted something. It looked like a broomstick popping up out of the ocean and then disappearing below the horizon.

Finally the ship got closer to the "broomstick" and a small hull popped up above the horizon.

Their escort was an Australian patrol vessel. It looked no bigger than a harbor patrol boat. But it had a gun and that was their escort, protecting them from the enemy until arrival at Brisbane five days later.

Campaign Lowjinks In Pamlico County

There are some things that should be out of bounds in election campaigns. Threatening phone calls to a candidate's wife fit in that category.

I have spent my life in defense of democracy. I believe every citizen should vote. Every citizen should feel free to express political opinions. I wish those opinions related to the substance of political differences rather than "nyaah, nyaah I don't like you!" That's worse than childish.

Everyone in the county seems to know about a threatening phone call to a candidate's wife, reported yesterday in the Sun Journal.

In an unrelated Facebook entry, the former minister of the Oriental Methodist Church offered the following suggestions:

• 

Not bad advice.

Seventy Years Ago: Guadalcanal, September 18, 1942

7th Marines, 4,180 men, land on Guadalcanal bringing total to 22,500.These were the same marines escorted by USS Wasp which sank from fires started by Japanese submarine torpedoes and USS North Carolina, damaged in the same encounter. The transports reached Guadalcanal.

Here is a portion of one marine's story.

Teachers, Unions And Nostrums

Good post today by the economist Jared Bernstein. I think it hits several nails on the head, so I take the liberty of quoting it in toto. Hope Professor Bernstein doesn't object:

"Students, Their Neighborhoods, Their Schools, and the Unions

Sep 18, 2012

"I’ve done just one post on the Chicago teachers’ strike, pointing out that ratcheting up the weight on teachers’ evaluations based on value-added modeling (VAM)—one of Mayor Emmanuel’s conditions—is a really bad idea.  Now, according to Reuters, the framework agreement they’ve reached out there scales back on that weighting.  Here’s a useful piece by Richard Rothstein with more background on how and why these tests fail to accurately and reliably identify effective teachers.
But this morning, I’d like to take a bit broader look at the issues in play here.  I open my WaPo this AM to read this:

"Two days after a student was gunned down while walking to Anninna Sigmon’s high school in Prince George’s County, she still wasn’t sure when she would feel safe enough to return to class.
“I just feel like I could be next,” said Sigmon, 17, a senior at Central High School in Capitol Heights. “People shouldn’t be afraid to go to school.”

"I am then reminded by this Rebecca Mead post that 80% of Chicago public school students qualify for free and reduced lunch, a proxy for poverty status.

"And it just reminds me how ridiculous it is for us to expect teachers to solve these problems for us while we’re busy beating up on their unions, cutting school budgets, laying off education personnel, and sharply reducing that part of the federal budget that could help make a difference in urban poverty.

"Of course we should insist on teacher accountability, but imagine for a moment being the teacher whose students legitimately fear for their lives upon walking to school.  Just how talented does she have to be to offset the impact that must have on the ability of students to absorb her teachings?

"Now that there’s a framework for an agreement in place, I think the Chicago teachers should be back in the classroom.  The fact that they’re not is a potent measure of the level of distrust that’s built up between the mayor and the unions.  But if you think teachers unions are the reason too many kids aren’t learning enough, you’re wrong.

"As Mead puts it:

"No doubt there are some lousy teachers in Chicago, as there are everywhere. But blaming teachers for the failure of schools is like blaming doctors for the diseases they are seeking to treat."

Russia And Democracy

A wise professor of mine, Marshall D. Shulman, used to observe (in the 1960's) that the United States and the Soviet Union had a "limited adversary relationship."

His point was, that neither the United States nor the Soviet Union, even in the depths of the Cold War, was committed to the destruction of the other. In fact,the two countries cooperated in a number of efforts to limit the danger of war. One such effort was the agreement to limit incidents at sea. Concluded in 1972 under President Nixon, the agreement established an annual bilateral review of incidents and measures to lessen the possibility of conflict and misunderstanding. I had a minor role in hosting one of the meetings in Washington.

Measures to keep the relationship between the United States and the successor state of Russia a productive one, continues to be a challenge.

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the United States Agency for International Development provided assistance to Russia in converting to a market economy. Among the most promising efforts was called the "rule of law" program. Other efforts included assistance in establishing democracy in the former Soviet Union.

These efforts are all in jeopardy, according to a report in the New York Times.

It isn't a surprise, but it doesn't help bilateral relations.

Even so, you do business with the countries that exist - not the ones you imagine.

On Starting Wars

I have observed elsewhere that starting a war is a mug's game. In general, not a good way to advance national security interests.

September 18, 1931, Japanese military personnel staged the Mukden Incident, also known as the Manchurian Incident, which served as the pretext for a Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Six months later, Japan established the puppet state of Manchukuo. The international uproar caused Japan to withdraw from the League of Nations in March, 1933.

In the long run, the invasion didn't work out so well.

It led to Pearl Harbor. And Hiroshima. And Nagasaki.

Seventy Years Ago: Japanese Stop Advance 30 Miles Short of Port Moresby

Japanese troops fighting their way overland toward Port Moresby, halted their advance at Loribawa, withing 30 miles of their objective. The next day, the nearly starving Japanese troops would begin withdrawing back over the Owen Stanly mountains.

They were halted because of the marines holding out on Guadalcanal. Japan planned to complete their conquest of New Guinea after completing their takeover of Guadalcanal.

It never happened.

Do Small Businesses Create Most Jobs? Not Exactly

This is one of those cases where it depends how you slice the data.

Specifically, it depends on whether you are counting firms or establishments.

Economist Jared Bernstein explains in a recent article here. In brief, smaller firms created fewer jobs than their percentage of the labor force and large firms (above 500 employees) created more new jobs than their percentage of the labor force.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics explains the difference between a firm and an establishment:

"An establishment is defined as an economic unit that produces goods or services, usually at a single physical location, and engaged in one or predominantly one activity. A firm is a legal business, either corporate or otherwise, and may consist of one establishment, a few establishments, or even a very large number of establishments. [Bernstein bold]"

The difference may seem subtle, but the statistical difference is substantial. It should become clear by reading the article.

Another issue that I surmise has an effect on the statistical outcome, but that Bernstein doesn't examine has to do with outsourcing. For tax and accounting reasons, many large firms in recent decades have decided to let direct employees go and hire contract firms to do the same work.

In many instances, the small contract business is formed for the specific purpose of hiring former employees of the large firm and continuing to do the same work at the same location. In such a case, there really are no new jobs, though it may appear that the new small business has created new jobs for its new employees. It is really sleight of hand.