At 0915, December 12, 1942, Japanese Light Aircraft Carrier steaming near Hachijo Jima off the coast of Japan, was torpedoed by USS Drum. Ryuho had left the previous day on her first mission, loaded with 20 light bombers on a ferry mission, her very first operation. She was a converted submarine tender, whose conversion was completed November 30.
It was the second time Ryuho was damaged by US forces. April 18, 1942, during the Doolittle raid on Japan, one of the B-25's hit Ryuho with a 500 pound bomb and some small incendiary weapons. The ship was in drydock at Yokosuka naval base. The damage delayed her completion.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Technology, Jobs and Salaries
Something is going on in the world of economists.
Some are beginning to question their deeply entrenched assumptions about prosperity.
Some even doubt whether improved technology might sometimes make things worse rather than better for people who work for a living. Such questions are stimulated by graphs like this one:
Yesterday economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee addressed the problem in a New York Times article. While both productivity of the economy and employment surged in the 1990's, they report, "as shown by the accompanying graph, which was first drawn by the economist Jared Bernstein, productivity growth and employment growth started to become decoupled from each other at the end of that decade." Bernstein himself calls the gap between the trend lines “the jaws of the snake.” They show no signs of closing.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee attribute the decoupling to technology, particularly robots and computers. Their article presents a pretty glum picture for the future of jobs except for those who "tell computers what to do."
Economist Paul Krugman, on the other hand, suspects the problem is not only robots and other technological advances, but that "robber barons" have succeeded in changing the rules to the benefit of capital over labor. Noah Smith looks for answers in the more remote past (early 1970's), using graphs posted by Paul Krugman to ask the question "what happened in the early 70's?" Smith's conjecture is that the big thing that happened might have been the oil shock or maybe the end of fixed exchange rates under the Bretton Woods system.
Others round up the usual suspects of "offshoring" of jobs to developing countries, globalization, disappearance of strong unions, and alleged educational failures.
Arin Dube and Ethan Kaplan take a different look at it in a paper published last March:
"During the 1990s and 2000s, most economists viewed the growth in the upper-tail inequality as largely representing the same phenomenon as the growth in wage inequality elsewhere—primarily a change in the demand for skills through technological change, with some role for policy ... Missing from all this was a discussion about how upper-tail earnings inequality could be better understood as an increase in the power of those with control over financial and physical capital. The exceptions were mostly outside of mainstream economics (e.g., Duménil and Lévy 2004)." They point to three pieces of evidence: "a broad decline in the labor share of income from around 66 percent in 1970 to 60 percent in 2007." But that figure includes compensation going to top executives. Exclude their compensation, and it would show an even greater drop in labor's share. Most of the growth of executive income has been capital-based, e.g. stock options, but appears in the statistics as labor income.
But by far the biggest factor in upper-level income- whether capital or wage-based was the financial sector. The exorbitant level of compensation was based on financial sector profits. Even if that sector drove the overall economy into the ground.
The financial sector, by the way, creates few jobs.
It's also good to remember Jim Hightower's observation that it isn't about jobs - "even slaves had jobs"- it's about wages and salaries.
What we need is a fair share of the nation's productivity going to the people who actually do the work rather than the handful who do the deals. But increasingly the dealmakers have the power and influence to change the rules in their own favor. And to intimidate or purchase the press and media outlets.
Some are beginning to question their deeply entrenched assumptions about prosperity.
Some even doubt whether improved technology might sometimes make things worse rather than better for people who work for a living. Such questions are stimulated by graphs like this one:
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Yesterday economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee addressed the problem in a New York Times article. While both productivity of the economy and employment surged in the 1990's, they report, "as shown by the accompanying graph, which was first drawn by the economist Jared Bernstein, productivity growth and employment growth started to become decoupled from each other at the end of that decade." Bernstein himself calls the gap between the trend lines “the jaws of the snake.” They show no signs of closing.
Brynjolfsson and McAfee attribute the decoupling to technology, particularly robots and computers. Their article presents a pretty glum picture for the future of jobs except for those who "tell computers what to do."
Economist Paul Krugman, on the other hand, suspects the problem is not only robots and other technological advances, but that "robber barons" have succeeded in changing the rules to the benefit of capital over labor. Noah Smith looks for answers in the more remote past (early 1970's), using graphs posted by Paul Krugman to ask the question "what happened in the early 70's?" Smith's conjecture is that the big thing that happened might have been the oil shock or maybe the end of fixed exchange rates under the Bretton Woods system.
Others round up the usual suspects of "offshoring" of jobs to developing countries, globalization, disappearance of strong unions, and alleged educational failures.
Arin Dube and Ethan Kaplan take a different look at it in a paper published last March:
"During the 1990s and 2000s, most economists viewed the growth in the upper-tail inequality as largely representing the same phenomenon as the growth in wage inequality elsewhere—primarily a change in the demand for skills through technological change, with some role for policy ... Missing from all this was a discussion about how upper-tail earnings inequality could be better understood as an increase in the power of those with control over financial and physical capital. The exceptions were mostly outside of mainstream economics (e.g., Duménil and Lévy 2004)." They point to three pieces of evidence: "a broad decline in the labor share of income from around 66 percent in 1970 to 60 percent in 2007." But that figure includes compensation going to top executives. Exclude their compensation, and it would show an even greater drop in labor's share. Most of the growth of executive income has been capital-based, e.g. stock options, but appears in the statistics as labor income.
But by far the biggest factor in upper-level income- whether capital or wage-based was the financial sector. The exorbitant level of compensation was based on financial sector profits. Even if that sector drove the overall economy into the ground.
The financial sector, by the way, creates few jobs.
It's also good to remember Jim Hightower's observation that it isn't about jobs - "even slaves had jobs"- it's about wages and salaries.
What we need is a fair share of the nation's productivity going to the people who actually do the work rather than the handful who do the deals. But increasingly the dealmakers have the power and influence to change the rules in their own favor. And to intimidate or purchase the press and media outlets.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Unfreedom Of The Press
Dan Froomkin of Huffington Post interviews two of the most trusted neutral political observers, Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute and Thomas Mann of Brookings.
Ornstein and Mann severely criticized press coverage of the recent election, particularly the effort to blame both parties equally for political lies and extreme language.
"I can't recall a campaign where I've seen more lying going on -- and it wasn't symmetric," said Ornstein, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute who's been tracking Congress with Mann since 1978. Democrats were hardly innocent, he said, "but it seemed pretty clear to me that the Republican campaign was just far more over the top."
Ornstein and Mann don't just criticize. They also point out the mechanism whereby journalists are intimidated and prevented from writing their real assessment.
Their comments lead one to wonder whatever happened to the free press?
Come to think of it, the timidity of reporters who don't want to speak truth to power, who are reluctant to do their jobs "without fear or favor," is an affliction in other lines of work as well. It isn't necessary to go to the mat on every issue, but if you let yourself be intimidated at every turn by those with wealth and power, you are not truly free.
Ornstein and Mann severely criticized press coverage of the recent election, particularly the effort to blame both parties equally for political lies and extreme language.
"I can't recall a campaign where I've seen more lying going on -- and it wasn't symmetric," said Ornstein, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute who's been tracking Congress with Mann since 1978. Democrats were hardly innocent, he said, "but it seemed pretty clear to me that the Republican campaign was just far more over the top."
Ornstein and Mann don't just criticize. They also point out the mechanism whereby journalists are intimidated and prevented from writing their real assessment.
Their comments lead one to wonder whatever happened to the free press?
Come to think of it, the timidity of reporters who don't want to speak truth to power, who are reluctant to do their jobs "without fear or favor," is an affliction in other lines of work as well. It isn't necessary to go to the mat on every issue, but if you let yourself be intimidated at every turn by those with wealth and power, you are not truly free.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: General Patch Takes Command
December 9, 1942. Major General Alexander Patch, US Army, commander of the Americal Division, assumed command of all army and marine forces on Guadalcanal, replacing Marine General Vandegrift. Admiral Halsey remained in overall command of the South Pacific Area from his flagship at Noumea.
By February, 1943, Patch had expelled all Japanese from the island.
By February, 1943, Patch had expelled all Japanese from the island.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Robots And Jobs
Paul Krugman has finally figured out that computerization and robotization (if there is such a word) might create a problem for jobs.
I'm glad he has decided this is a problem that merits study. I suggested this in a comment a couple of years ago to one of his blog posts. This is the first time he seems to take the idea seriously.
I'm not sure that at the present time fiscal efforts to expand the economy won't work. It also seems worthwhile to encourage manufacturing to return from foreign exile. The fact that Apple intends to bring some manufacturing back to these shores may be a harbinger of good tidings. But not all that good, since most associated manufacturing is highly automated.
Jobs may consist largely of servicing robots. I mentioned this a couple of years ago, and suggested this may no longer be just a theme for science fiction.
http://mile181.blogspot.com/2011/02/robotics-and-economics.html
I'm glad he has decided this is a problem that merits study. I suggested this in a comment a couple of years ago to one of his blog posts. This is the first time he seems to take the idea seriously.
I'm not sure that at the present time fiscal efforts to expand the economy won't work. It also seems worthwhile to encourage manufacturing to return from foreign exile. The fact that Apple intends to bring some manufacturing back to these shores may be a harbinger of good tidings. But not all that good, since most associated manufacturing is highly automated.
Jobs may consist largely of servicing robots. I mentioned this a couple of years ago, and suggested this may no longer be just a theme for science fiction.
http://mile181.blogspot.com/2011/02/robotics-and-economics.html
Friday, December 7, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: First Year Of The Pacific War
The war had been going on for a year. It was mostly a naval war.
If the war were scored like a game of checkers, you would conclude that Japan was ahead. But Japan had made no significant advances since the early weeks. Repeated attempts to take control of Papua New Guinea had failed. Japan was hanging on to Buna, Salamaua and Lae on the northern coast by their fingernails.
Japanese soldiers on Guadalcanal had been unable to expel US Marines. The Japanese navy was unable to supply troops with food, much less with ammunition.
But fierce battles at sea had been costly to both sides. The score in ships sunk:
Warship losses in the First Year of the Pacific War.
If the war were scored like a game of checkers, you would conclude that Japan was ahead. But Japan had made no significant advances since the early weeks. Repeated attempts to take control of Papua New Guinea had failed. Japan was hanging on to Buna, Salamaua and Lae on the northern coast by their fingernails.
Japanese soldiers on Guadalcanal had been unable to expel US Marines. The Japanese navy was unable to supply troops with food, much less with ammunition.
But fierce battles at sea had been costly to both sides. The score in ships sunk:
Warship losses in the First Year of the Pacific War.
| U.S. | Allies | Japanese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battleships | 2 | 2 RN | 2 |
| Fleet Carriers | 4 | - | 4 |
| Light Carriers | - | 1 RN | 2 |
| Heavy Cruisers | 5 | 3 RN , 1 Aus | 4 |
| Light Cruisers | 2 | 2 Dutch, 1 Aus | 2 |
| Destroyers | 23 | 8 Dutch, 7+3 RN. 2+2 Aus | 26 |
| Submarines | 7 | 5 Dutch | 21 |
Seventy Years Ago: 27th Air Depot Group Leaves Brisbane
Ten weeks after arriving in Australia, the 27th Air Depot Group has loaded up and shipped out from Brisbane. Destination: Port Moresby, New Guinea. The voyage will take six days.
The equipment they brought with them, designed to rebuild airplanes, was supplemented with all kinds of heavy equipment. Who would operate the equipment? The soldiers. My dad, M/Sgt J. Cox, was recruited to operate a bulldozer. He had operated road graders, bulldozers and other heavy equipment since he was a teenager. He would bulldoze landing strips, areas to pitch tents, build hangars, warehouses, aircraft taxiways, for example.
The soldiers had to build their own hangars, barracks, mess halls and other structures. But there was no lumber. Not to worry. There were plenty of logs in the jungle and the ships carried a complete sawmill. Among the aircraft mechanics, welders, electronic technicians and other specialists, there were soldiers who had operated sawmills.
Some of the 900-odd men were carried by truck for miles into a desolate area covered by fibrous waist-high Kunai grass laden with mosquitoes. Their camp was in a valley nicknemed "death valley" between two existing airfields.
It was mid-January before they began major construction. In the meantime the soldiers had only their barracks bags and field packs. Other supplies and equipment had to be brought from the ships and uncrated before field kitchens and tents could be set up. Forty percent of the soldiers spent their first weeks on site building the depot.
Among the wooden boxes were some marked "tools" and "aircraft parts;" "Attention M/Sgt Cox." When opened, they proved to contain sturdy cots, mosquito nets and air mattresses for greater comfort in the jungle.
In the Navy, we call it "forehandedness."
The equipment they brought with them, designed to rebuild airplanes, was supplemented with all kinds of heavy equipment. Who would operate the equipment? The soldiers. My dad, M/Sgt J. Cox, was recruited to operate a bulldozer. He had operated road graders, bulldozers and other heavy equipment since he was a teenager. He would bulldoze landing strips, areas to pitch tents, build hangars, warehouses, aircraft taxiways, for example.
The soldiers had to build their own hangars, barracks, mess halls and other structures. But there was no lumber. Not to worry. There were plenty of logs in the jungle and the ships carried a complete sawmill. Among the aircraft mechanics, welders, electronic technicians and other specialists, there were soldiers who had operated sawmills.
Some of the 900-odd men were carried by truck for miles into a desolate area covered by fibrous waist-high Kunai grass laden with mosquitoes. Their camp was in a valley nicknemed "death valley" between two existing airfields.
It was mid-January before they began major construction. In the meantime the soldiers had only their barracks bags and field packs. Other supplies and equipment had to be brought from the ships and uncrated before field kitchens and tents could be set up. Forty percent of the soldiers spent their first weeks on site building the depot.
Among the wooden boxes were some marked "tools" and "aircraft parts;" "Attention M/Sgt Cox." When opened, they proved to contain sturdy cots, mosquito nets and air mattresses for greater comfort in the jungle.
In the Navy, we call it "forehandedness."
Post Election Poll: "Republicans Not Handling Election Results Well"
Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Raleigh, NC polling firm, reports results of a national post-election poll.
PPP summarizes that Republicans are taking the outcome hard and also declining in numbers.
Nearly half believe ACORN stole the 2012 election for Obama. (ACORN ceased to exist in 2010.) 55% of Romney voters believe Democrats committed voter fraud and 25% want their state to secede from the Union because Obama was reelected.
The PPP summary has a link to a printable pdf file of the complete poll. PPP conducts its polls with robocalls and does not contact cell phone numbers.
PPP summarizes that Republicans are taking the outcome hard and also declining in numbers.
Nearly half believe ACORN stole the 2012 election for Obama. (ACORN ceased to exist in 2010.) 55% of Romney voters believe Democrats committed voter fraud and 25% want their state to secede from the Union because Obama was reelected.
The PPP summary has a link to a printable pdf file of the complete poll. PPP conducts its polls with robocalls and does not contact cell phone numbers.
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