Robotics, Offshoring And Economics: Another Take

Interesting dialogue in today's New York Times. Worth reading all of the comments. Pay special attention to the cartoon that illustrates the article.

Seventy Years Ago: May 19, 1943 - Battle of The Atlantic Turning Point

By May 19, 1942, the Allies had begun to turn the tide in the Battle of the Atlantic. German submarines were achieving less and less in their effort to interrupt the flow of goods from America to England. Not only had Allied equipment and procedures improved to the point that escort ships were able to defend against submarines more effectively, aircraft were able to detect and attack submarines at greater distance from land.

Here is an account of one successful effort against submarine wolf packs.

A key element in increased Allied success was the effective use of communications intelligence, including code breaking and high frequency direction finding. By this time, all of the technical means of detecting and tracking submarines had improved to the point that German submarine operations had become very hazardous.

A significant organizational change occurred on May 20, with formation of the U.S. 10th Fleet, essentially a paper organization headquartered in Washington, DC.

Tenth Fleet's mission was to destroy enemy submarines, protect coastal merchant shipping, centralize control and routing of convoys, and to coordinate and supervise all USN anti-submarine warfare (ASW) training, anti-submarine intelligence, and coordination with Allied nations. The fleet was active from May 1943 to June 1945.

Tenth Fleet had no ships of its own, but used Commander-in-Chief Atlantic's ships operationally; CinCLANT issued orders to escort groups originating in the United States and organized and operated hunter-killer groups built around the growing fleet of small Escort Aircraft Carriers.  Tenth Fleet never put to sea, had no ships, and never had more than about 50 people in its organization. The fleet was disbanded after the surrender of Germany.

Seventy Years Ago: May 17, 1943 In Europe

May 17, 1943, the B-17 Memphis Belle completed twenty-five missions over Europe. They were the first US bomber to complete that number of missions. It was unusual enough that the Army made a documentary featuring Memphis Belle.

Here is a very interesting summary on Brad DeLong's blog.

Town Manager Steps Down Early

Picked off of Town Dock this morning:

"Saturday May 18, 2013

"Oriental’s Town Manager Bob Maxbauer is stepping down June 30, six months earlier than previously scheduled. Mayor Bill Sage made the announcement yesterday afternoon after a closed door session at the Board’s budget meeting. Sage said Maxbauer planned to run for a seat on the Town Board this November.
At the budget meeting, there were strong indications Maxbauer was also seeking future employment with the Town once his $56,000-a-year stint at Manager ends. Maxbauer spoke at length about a “dire need” for repairs at the Town’s water plant and presented himself as the licensed employee who could renovate the plant with the Town’s Public Works staff, as well as operate it. As such, he asked the Board to allocate $160,000 for Public Works salaries next fiscal year — instead of the $120,000 the Board has pencilled in."

"Maxbauer claimed it would cost the Town less for him to rebuild the water plant using public works employees than for the Town to hire an outside contractor. (Maxbauer made a similar pitch to the Board a year ago about the Town Hall project, which he oversaw and which ended up costing more than was allocated.) At the budget meeting, there was no mention of putting the water plant renovation job out for bid."

"More on the story coming…"

Very interesting.

Oriental NC Town Board Meeting May 17 2013

Strange goings on today at the Oriental Town Board budget meeting, or at least according to a usually reliable source. I'm up in Apex for the weekend, so I can't verify. But keep your eyes and ears open. Will explain when I get confirmation.

Subleties Of Language

I suppose I have to make allowances for changes in meaning as time goes by. But I don't have to like it. Some usages are just lazy and imprecise language.

Some of my pet peeves:

1. Use of "less" in place of "fewer," as in "he had less choices;"

2. Use of "political" when what is really meant is "partisan;"

3. Use of "investment" to describe the purchase of stocks or bonds. This is one of those words that leads to bad policy. "Investment" is what companies do when they buy new equipment or otherwise improve their ability to make stuff or provide services. When people buy stocks or bonds on the market, their money doesn't increase the enterprise's capability one whit. What they are doing is "speculation."

4. Use of "it's" as the possessive. No! It's the contraction for "it is."

I have more such peeves.

Robotics And Economics, Take Two

A couple of years ago, I posted my thoughts about Robotics and Economics. My concern at that time was that economists, as they have historically done, were discounting the possibility that future technology might replace many human jobs with machines.

The conventional answer to that concern is that, since the Luddites, human workers have resisted being replaced by machines, but other jobs have always arisen to replace those taken by machines. But it seemed to me possible that this might not continue to be true.

Not long after my post, even Paul Krugman began to think such thoughts.

Now Kevin Drum takes the argument a step further and explains why the digital revolution won't be a replay of the industrial revolution. This is serious stuff.

I strongly believe that in the short to medium run we can put many people back to work using economic stimulus to generate aggregate demand. But this may not be enough to rebuild the hollowed out loss of jobs in the middle and even upper part of the income scale. We could try to rebuild unions, change the tax structure to correct the recent redistribution of income from workers to the wealthy. But if we hope to have jobs and income for most people and general prosperity for all, now is the time (if it is not already too late) to think through the problem.

In another article, Kevin Drum offers more detail about the coming robot revolution. The article raises Lenin's old question: "who - whom." In other words, who will be in charge - humans or robots? That question has interested science fiction writers since Czech writer Karel Capek raised it in his drama, "Rossum's Universal Robots." Similar questions were raised in his novel, "War With The Newts." It is time to take a serious look at the problem.

Economist Karl Smith, writing in Forbes Magazine, takes a look at inequality in the robotic future.

A thought that comes to mind is that while we think about robots, we might seriously examine population control. "Zero Growth" is too modest a goal.

Oriental Town Hall Records Problems

I have mentioned earlier that Oriental Town Hall has still not posted on their web site any minutes of Town Board meetings since last November. There are also problems with some of the minutes I have inspected relating to closed meetings.

And that's not all. The page on the Town's web site posting the Town's Charter and Amendments isn't complete. The site displays the 1991 Act Setting a Referendum on changes to the charter, but displays no information as to the result of the referendum. That leaves citizens in the dark as to the basis for our present Town government. Furthermore, there was an amendment to the Charter by Ordinance that changed the form of government to a Council-Manager system. That ordinance should also be displayed. It isn't.

This is not rocket science.