I checked my usual news sources this morning. So far as I can tell, the rapture didn't happen yesterday.
So are we back to business as usual?
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Saturday, May 21, 2011
NC Legislature on Elections Week of May 16
Three bills on elections have cleared State House of Representatives committees and are calendared for a vote:
H366, Special Election Dates (provides for municipal special elections to be held at same time as statewide primary or general election);
H638, Uniform Faithful Presidential Electors Act;
H658, Change Early Voting Period.
H366 seems reasonable.
H638 is a mystery. I don't recall any concern expressed by North Carolina voters that electors might vote for someone other than the candidate they are pledged to. Such a vote has been very rare in US history, though it appears not to be prohibited by the US Constitution. In any event, even if adopted into NC law, it may well be unenforceable under the US Constitution. The mystery is why this particular model legislation appears on the list of acts advocated by the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), over eighty percent of whose funding comes from corporate sources. What is the problem to which this is the solution?
H658 isn't much of a mystery. It shortens the period of "one-stop" or early voting in North Carolina, reducing the calendar period for one stop by a third. It also abolishes any one stop voting before 10:00 in the morning. Its supporters claim the act will shorten election campaigns and save counties money. How this would shorten campaigns is a mystery. Campaigns start when potential candidates first announce their intentions, and continue until election night. Nothing in this bill reduces that period.
As for saving money by reducing the one-stop period, I can't speak for other counties, but don't believe it will save money in Pamlico County. I am concerned that the bill, if it becomes law, may have an adverse effect on Pamlico County voters and also add to the County's cost of administering elections. I am particularly concerned about the effect on planning for 2012.
While it might seem that shortening the period of one-stop voting inevitably reduces expenses, in the case of Pamlico County this is unlikely. We have already begun preliminary planning and budgeting for the 2012 election cycle. The budget our Director of Elections has submitted to the County Manager includes funding for the 2012 primary and possible runoff primary elections. Our board has determined, based on experience in 2008, that we can manage with a single one-stop location so long as the one-stop period remains as before. If H-658 becomes law, we will have to reexamine that decision and may find we need to add another one-stop site. If that becomes necessary, it could increase our one-stop expenditures by at least 50%.
In our county, the interest of voters in one-stop has grown by leaps and bounds in each election from 2006 on. In 2008, roughly two-thirds of Pamlico County voters cast ballots during one-stop (4,527 out of 6,834 voters). Of the one-stop voters, a little over five percent made use of same-day registration, often to update their information already in the system. Reduction of one-stop voting period will inevitably increase the number of voters on election day, making for longer lines and a less relaxed voting experience. We may also have to increase staffing at some of our larger precincts for election day. This would add expense.
A further concern I have is the bill's stipulation that one-stop voting be conducted either from 10:00 to 6:00 or from 11:00 to 7:00. This will reduce, by law, our daily hours of operation. In Pamlico County, we typically conduct one-stop voting from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm. In our experience, this schedule fits well with the needs of Pamlico County voters. Our heaviest hours are usually the first two hours after opening, the period either side of noon, and the last two hours. It would be helpful for county boards of elections to be authorized to tailor their hours to the needs of their voters.
Over the past two decades, I have taken part in "get-out-the-vote" efforts in several states. Of all the systems I have seen in action, North Carolina's is the most helpful to candidates and political parties. In Pamlico County, we make one-stop voter information available to the parties daily after the polls close. This allows the political parties to update their voter lists each day and reduces the challenge to them of getting voters to the polls on election day. Increased one-stop voting thus benefits everyone involved in the election process.
H366, Special Election Dates (provides for municipal special elections to be held at same time as statewide primary or general election);
H638, Uniform Faithful Presidential Electors Act;
H658, Change Early Voting Period.
H366 seems reasonable.
H638 is a mystery. I don't recall any concern expressed by North Carolina voters that electors might vote for someone other than the candidate they are pledged to. Such a vote has been very rare in US history, though it appears not to be prohibited by the US Constitution. In any event, even if adopted into NC law, it may well be unenforceable under the US Constitution. The mystery is why this particular model legislation appears on the list of acts advocated by the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), over eighty percent of whose funding comes from corporate sources. What is the problem to which this is the solution?
H658 isn't much of a mystery. It shortens the period of "one-stop" or early voting in North Carolina, reducing the calendar period for one stop by a third. It also abolishes any one stop voting before 10:00 in the morning. Its supporters claim the act will shorten election campaigns and save counties money. How this would shorten campaigns is a mystery. Campaigns start when potential candidates first announce their intentions, and continue until election night. Nothing in this bill reduces that period.
As for saving money by reducing the one-stop period, I can't speak for other counties, but don't believe it will save money in Pamlico County. I am concerned that the bill, if it becomes law, may have an adverse effect on Pamlico County voters and also add to the County's cost of administering elections. I am particularly concerned about the effect on planning for 2012.
While it might seem that shortening the period of one-stop voting inevitably reduces expenses, in the case of Pamlico County this is unlikely. We have already begun preliminary planning and budgeting for the 2012 election cycle. The budget our Director of Elections has submitted to the County Manager includes funding for the 2012 primary and possible runoff primary elections. Our board has determined, based on experience in 2008, that we can manage with a single one-stop location so long as the one-stop period remains as before. If H-658 becomes law, we will have to reexamine that decision and may find we need to add another one-stop site. If that becomes necessary, it could increase our one-stop expenditures by at least 50%.
In our county, the interest of voters in one-stop has grown by leaps and bounds in each election from 2006 on. In 2008, roughly two-thirds of Pamlico County voters cast ballots during one-stop (4,527 out of 6,834 voters). Of the one-stop voters, a little over five percent made use of same-day registration, often to update their information already in the system. Reduction of one-stop voting period will inevitably increase the number of voters on election day, making for longer lines and a less relaxed voting experience. We may also have to increase staffing at some of our larger precincts for election day. This would add expense.
A further concern I have is the bill's stipulation that one-stop voting be conducted either from 10:00 to 6:00 or from 11:00 to 7:00. This will reduce, by law, our daily hours of operation. In Pamlico County, we typically conduct one-stop voting from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm. In our experience, this schedule fits well with the needs of Pamlico County voters. Our heaviest hours are usually the first two hours after opening, the period either side of noon, and the last two hours. It would be helpful for county boards of elections to be authorized to tailor their hours to the needs of their voters.
Over the past two decades, I have taken part in "get-out-the-vote" efforts in several states. Of all the systems I have seen in action, North Carolina's is the most helpful to candidates and political parties. In Pamlico County, we make one-stop voter information available to the parties daily after the polls close. This allows the political parties to update their voter lists each day and reduces the challenge to them of getting voters to the polls on election day. Increased one-stop voting thus benefits everyone involved in the election process.
Egotism and Music
About a month ago, the New York Times reported on a new academic study examining whether in recent years popular music has become more self-centered and egotistic. The study, by psychology professor DeWall at the University of Kentucky, examined lyrics from 1980 through 2007. The abstract described the object of the study:
"Tuning in to psychological change: Linguistic markers of psychological traits and emotions over time in popular U.S. song lyrics.
By DeWall, C. Nathan; Pond, Richard S., Jr.; Campbell, W. Keith; Twenge, Jean M.
Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity, and the Arts, Mar 21, 2011, No Pagination Specified.
Abstract
American culture is filled with cultural products. Yet few studies have investigated how changes in cultural products correspond to changes in psychological traits and emotions. The current research fills this gap by testing the hypothesis that one cultural product—word use in popular song lyrics—changes over time in harmony with cultural changes in individualistic traits. Linguistic analyses of the most popular songs from 1980–2007 demonstrated changes in word use that mirror psychological change. Over time, use of words related to self-focus and antisocial behavior increased, whereas words related to other-focus, social interactions, and positive emotion decreased. These findings offer novel evidence regarding the need to investigate how changes in the tangible artifacts of the sociocultural environment can provide a window into understanding cultural changes in psychological processes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)"
I have noticed the same phenomenon in church hymns. Recent hymns seem more self-centered and far less centered on the deity.
I have noticed the same phenomenon in church hymns. Recent hymns seem more self-centered and far less centered on the deity.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Horoscope
I just discovered the web page for the Onion's horoscope.
My favorite is the horoscope for Aries. Too bad I missed being Aries by a day.
My favorite is the horoscope for Aries. Too bad I missed being Aries by a day.
Left Behind
I gather from reading Doonesbury [should that be renamed "Doomsbury?"] that sometime tomorrow the rapture is supposed to happen. If I have the right idea, the faithful are supposed to be whisked away to paradise while the rest of us stay here.
I gather that two novelists, Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins, have written sixteen best-selling novels on this theme.
I have just one question.
Where did they put their money?
I gather that two novelists, Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins, have written sixteen best-selling novels on this theme.
I have just one question.
Where did they put their money?
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Election Rigging, Texas Style
In case you had any doubt that the nationwide Republican effort to pass restrictive voter ID laws is intended to obstruct voting by Democrats, take a look at this article in the Dallas Observer web site. And watch the You Tube video.
Debbie Georgatos, running for Chair of the Dallas County, TX Republican Party, makes it clear that the purpose of voter ID is to "prevent Dallas County from becoming a super-blue-hole," drawing an analogy to the black holes in space and implying that the only reason Democrats win is voter fraud.
By the way, I voted in Dallas County in 1992. The system in use then was vastly better than the one in use in Florida in 2000. Fraud is not a problem. Not in Dallas County nor anywhere else in Texas; not in North Carolina either or anywhere else in the United States.
Which doesn't mean there is no rigging of elections. One means of election rigging is selective voter suppression, which is what voter ID is all about. Another way is to redraw election districts in favor of the party with the pen. That is going on in North Carolina as we speak. Both parties do it. It is perfectly legal, so long as the new districts comply with US and North Carolina Supreme Court decisions and Department of Justice requirements. Another technique is to harass and intimidate voters and election officials.
If you want to steal an election, though, the least likely approach is to have individual voters impersonate some legally registered voter. Not only is it a felony if you get caught, it can't possibly be done on a scale great enough to affect an election. Voter suppression has a much greater chance of success. Republican movers and shakers know this. Voter ID is an expensive, disruptive effort to suppress votes.
Debbie Georgatos, running for Chair of the Dallas County, TX Republican Party, makes it clear that the purpose of voter ID is to "prevent Dallas County from becoming a super-blue-hole," drawing an analogy to the black holes in space and implying that the only reason Democrats win is voter fraud.
By the way, I voted in Dallas County in 1992. The system in use then was vastly better than the one in use in Florida in 2000. Fraud is not a problem. Not in Dallas County nor anywhere else in Texas; not in North Carolina either or anywhere else in the United States.
Which doesn't mean there is no rigging of elections. One means of election rigging is selective voter suppression, which is what voter ID is all about. Another way is to redraw election districts in favor of the party with the pen. That is going on in North Carolina as we speak. Both parties do it. It is perfectly legal, so long as the new districts comply with US and North Carolina Supreme Court decisions and Department of Justice requirements. Another technique is to harass and intimidate voters and election officials.
If you want to steal an election, though, the least likely approach is to have individual voters impersonate some legally registered voter. Not only is it a felony if you get caught, it can't possibly be done on a scale great enough to affect an election. Voter suppression has a much greater chance of success. Republican movers and shakers know this. Voter ID is an expensive, disruptive effort to suppress votes.
Pamlico County Education Budget
At last night's meeting of the Pamlico County Board of Commissioners, Dr. Coon, Superintendent of Education, presented a report on next year's budget.
The report was not only grim, but also uncertain. The bottom line is that the county's education budget for the coming year will be down to what it was in 2005. There will be layoffs. Some programs will be terminated. Class sizes will increase and many teacher's aides will be laid off. For the fourth year in a row, teacher salaries will decrease. On top of that, teacher take-home pay will be reduced $2800 to $3200 for health insurance deductions. Other staffing positions will be eliminated.
There is no way these reductions can help but reduce the quality of education in the county.
The new North Carolina state legislature has decided to reduce funding for education at all levels well beyond the governor's recommendation.
Even so, the situation need not be so dire if the US Congress would reestablish the stimulus program, and this time set it at a sufficiently high level to do some good. Not that the ARRA stimulus didn't create jobs and prevent others from being lost - it just wasn't big enough to create adequate demand to counter the effects of the Great Recession. And monetary policy can't help, since the short term interest rate is at the zero bound. Can't go lower.
What is really going on here? Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, calls attention to a study by two Dartmouth economists and explains:
"This is hugely important for macro-policy debates because it suggests that more stimulus would provide a further boost to the economy and reduction in unemployment. This means that the only reason that we are sitting here with 25 million people unemployed and underemployed is that the politicians in Washington are too intimidated by the Wall Street deficit hawks.
The report was not only grim, but also uncertain. The bottom line is that the county's education budget for the coming year will be down to what it was in 2005. There will be layoffs. Some programs will be terminated. Class sizes will increase and many teacher's aides will be laid off. For the fourth year in a row, teacher salaries will decrease. On top of that, teacher take-home pay will be reduced $2800 to $3200 for health insurance deductions. Other staffing positions will be eliminated.
There is no way these reductions can help but reduce the quality of education in the county.
The new North Carolina state legislature has decided to reduce funding for education at all levels well beyond the governor's recommendation.
Even so, the situation need not be so dire if the US Congress would reestablish the stimulus program, and this time set it at a sufficiently high level to do some good. Not that the ARRA stimulus didn't create jobs and prevent others from being lost - it just wasn't big enough to create adequate demand to counter the effects of the Great Recession. And monetary policy can't help, since the short term interest rate is at the zero bound. Can't go lower.
What is really going on here? Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, calls attention to a study by two Dartmouth economists and explains:
"This is hugely important for macro-policy debates because it suggests that more stimulus would provide a further boost to the economy and reduction in unemployment. This means that the only reason that we are sitting here with 25 million people unemployed and underemployed is that the politicians in Washington are too intimidated by the Wall Street deficit hawks.
The deficit hawks have used their enormous political power and control over the media to shut down any further discussion of stimulus. They have managed to completely dominate public debate with their brand of flat-earth economics. They are using the crisis that was created through their greed and incompetence to reduce hugely valued public benefits, like Social Security and Medicare. And, now they are using the crisis that they have created for state and local governments to destroy public sector unions.
This looks really awful because it is. Our nations' leaders are deliberately inflicting enormous pain on tens of millions of people to advance their political agenda. This new study helps to prove this fact."
The leaders he is referring to are overwhelmingly Republicans in Congress and in state legislatures and governors' mansions.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Where Do All These Bills Come From?
The newly elected North Carolina legislature has pursued a frantic pace of new legislation.
Some observers have charged that the new legislators have no idea what the effect of their proposed legislation will be. That may be true.
Normally, anyone taking a new job spends a little time getting to know the ropes. Not these legislators.
So where are all the bills coming from? Did you ever hear of ALEC? That is, the American Legislative Exchange Council. You thought you elected your local candidate to the state House of Representatives and the state Senate? Actually, you elected ALEC.
How do I know? I have been following the bills introduced in the legislature, and I have looked at the ALEC web site. Here is a link to ALEC's model legislation. Just read ALEC's models and compare them to the bills introduced by the new legislators. Most of them are ALEC bills.
So who is ALEC? The nationwide voice of corporate interests seeking to get their way through uniform acts by all of the state legislatures. Their aims have nothing to do with North Carolina. Do they have the public interest at heart? Not Likely.
Here is a good backgrounder.
Some observers have charged that the new legislators have no idea what the effect of their proposed legislation will be. That may be true.
Normally, anyone taking a new job spends a little time getting to know the ropes. Not these legislators.
So where are all the bills coming from? Did you ever hear of ALEC? That is, the American Legislative Exchange Council. You thought you elected your local candidate to the state House of Representatives and the state Senate? Actually, you elected ALEC.
How do I know? I have been following the bills introduced in the legislature, and I have looked at the ALEC web site. Here is a link to ALEC's model legislation. Just read ALEC's models and compare them to the bills introduced by the new legislators. Most of them are ALEC bills.
So who is ALEC? The nationwide voice of corporate interests seeking to get their way through uniform acts by all of the state legislatures. Their aims have nothing to do with North Carolina. Do they have the public interest at heart? Not Likely.
Here is a good backgrounder.
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