I have observed elsewhere that starting a war is a mug's game. In general, not a good way to advance national security interests.
September 18, 1931, Japanese military personnel staged the Mukden Incident, also known as the Manchurian Incident, which served as the pretext for a Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Six months later, Japan established the puppet state of Manchukuo. The international uproar caused Japan to withdraw from the League of Nations in March, 1933.
In the long run, the invasion didn't work out so well.
It led to Pearl Harbor. And Hiroshima. And Nagasaki.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Japanese Stop Advance 30 Miles Short of Port Moresby
Japanese troops fighting their way overland toward Port Moresby, halted their advance at Loribawa, withing 30 miles of their objective. The next day, the nearly starving Japanese troops would begin withdrawing back over the Owen Stanly mountains.
They were halted because of the marines holding out on Guadalcanal. Japan planned to complete their conquest of New Guinea after completing their takeover of Guadalcanal.
It never happened.
They were halted because of the marines holding out on Guadalcanal. Japan planned to complete their conquest of New Guinea after completing their takeover of Guadalcanal.
It never happened.
Do Small Businesses Create Most Jobs? Not Exactly
This is one of those cases where it depends how you slice the data.
Specifically, it depends on whether you are counting firms or establishments.
Economist Jared Bernstein explains in a recent article here. In brief, smaller firms created fewer jobs than their percentage of the labor force and large firms (above 500 employees) created more new jobs than their percentage of the labor force.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics explains the difference between a firm and an establishment:
"An establishment is defined as an economic unit that produces goods or services, usually at a single physical location, and engaged in one or predominantly one activity. A firm is a legal business, either corporate or otherwise, and may consist of one establishment, a few establishments, or even a very large number of establishments. [Bernstein bold]"
The difference may seem subtle, but the statistical difference is substantial. It should become clear by reading the article.
Another issue that I surmise has an effect on the statistical outcome, but that Bernstein doesn't examine has to do with outsourcing. For tax and accounting reasons, many large firms in recent decades have decided to let direct employees go and hire contract firms to do the same work.
In many instances, the small contract business is formed for the specific purpose of hiring former employees of the large firm and continuing to do the same work at the same location. In such a case, there really are no new jobs, though it may appear that the new small business has created new jobs for its new employees. It is really sleight of hand.
Specifically, it depends on whether you are counting firms or establishments.
Economist Jared Bernstein explains in a recent article here. In brief, smaller firms created fewer jobs than their percentage of the labor force and large firms (above 500 employees) created more new jobs than their percentage of the labor force.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics explains the difference between a firm and an establishment:
"An establishment is defined as an economic unit that produces goods or services, usually at a single physical location, and engaged in one or predominantly one activity. A firm is a legal business, either corporate or otherwise, and may consist of one establishment, a few establishments, or even a very large number of establishments. [Bernstein bold]"
The difference may seem subtle, but the statistical difference is substantial. It should become clear by reading the article.
Another issue that I surmise has an effect on the statistical outcome, but that Bernstein doesn't examine has to do with outsourcing. For tax and accounting reasons, many large firms in recent decades have decided to let direct employees go and hire contract firms to do the same work.
In many instances, the small contract business is formed for the specific purpose of hiring former employees of the large firm and continuing to do the same work at the same location. In such a case, there really are no new jobs, though it may appear that the new small business has created new jobs for its new employees. It is really sleight of hand.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
History Update: Czechoslovakia Dissolved (Twenty Years Ago)
It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so.
Will Rogers
Will Rogers
Meanwhile, Back At Oriental Town Hall
It has been a pleasure to watch the progress in rebuilding Oriental Town Hall.
We have been talking about modifying Town Hall for five or six years now. Glad to see the project seriously underway.
I'm sorry the town Board I served on made the obviously erroneous decision to let our flood insurance lapse. Bad idea, though it saved a bit of money for a couple of years.
I think the newly-designed layout will better serve the citizens of Oriental.
We have been talking about modifying Town Hall for five or six years now. Glad to see the project seriously underway.
I'm sorry the town Board I served on made the obviously erroneous decision to let our flood insurance lapse. Bad idea, though it saved a bit of money for a couple of years.
I think the newly-designed layout will better serve the citizens of Oriental.
Campaign News Roundup For The Young
The Strip | By Brian McFadden
September 9, 2012
This post is a bit late, but I thought it was kinda fun. I continue to be amazed at what the younger generation doesn't know or understand about American history and our political system. I think this is the sort of thing retired Supreme Court Sandra Day O'Conner has tried to address. Not apparent she is making much headway.
This post is a bit late, but I thought it was kinda fun. I continue to be amazed at what the younger generation doesn't know or understand about American history and our political system. I think this is the sort of thing retired Supreme Court Sandra Day O'Conner has tried to address. Not apparent she is making much headway.
Ship Misidentification
During the Democratic National Convention, an evening was set aside to honor veterans and recognize their service to the nation. That's always a good thing to do.
But whoever put together the slide show included a dramatic photo of a group of Soviet warships, with what appear to be a formation of US aircraft flying over.
It was a good picture, but it would have been better to have a formation of American warships. Here's the account from the Navy Times.
A bit embarrassing. Shouldn't have happened.
On the other hand, at least no one was killed, as happened in 1974 when the Turkish Air Force sank the Turkish Navy destroyer, TCG Kocatepe.
I've been reading a lot lately about WWII in the Pacific, and such episodes were not unknown. The truth is, identifying warships can be a challenge, even for a trained professional.
Now to the interesting part. The slide that was shown is in silhouette and the antenna arrays are pretty characteristic of Soviet warships. The hull and superstructure of the ships, though, look an awful lot like our Arleigh Burke class Aegis destroyers. There's a good reason for that. After years of study by naval intelligence and the Naval Ships Systems Command, our naval architects decided that the hull form used by the Soviets had much better sea keeping qualities in heavy weather than the shape we had used on destroyers and cruisers since early in the 20th century. So, for our newest combatant ship we borrowed heavily from Soviet Naval Architecture.
How do I know? Some of my friends did the research, and I saw the culmination of it when I worked on the details of the Arleigh Burke class combat system design.
It isn't a big secret, but I don't think the influence of Soviet designs on our ships is widely known. Compare the pictures, and you will see what I mean.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:BCGN_Kalinin_1991.jpg
http://www.military-today.com/navy/arleigh_burke_class_l3.jpg
By the way, when it was formed in 1882, the Office of Naval Intelligence was formed for the purpose of seeking out and reporting developments in other navies. So we could copy the best. At that time in our history, we intended to modernize, but had not yet begun the "new steel navy." The first four steel warships were not authorized by Congress until 1883. We had a lot to learn about steel plating, assembly, modern steam plants, and large guns.
Why not learn from other navies? we thought then. Still not a bad idea.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Seventy Years Ago: Wasp Sunk; North Carolina Torpedoed
The afternoon of September 15, 1942,
Wasp (CV-7), Hornet (CV-8), North Carolina (BB-55) and 10
other warships were escorting a convoy carrying the 7th Marine Regiment from
Espiritu Santo to Guadalcanal as reinforcements. As duty carrier, Wasp had been launching and recovering aircraft to support the operation. At about 2:45 in the afternoon, while she was rearming and refueling aircraft with gasoline and munitions exposed, a destroyer spotted three torpedoes headed right for the carrier. Japanese submarine I-19 had fired a spread of six
21-inch type 93 torpedoes at Wasp. At least two hit their target. Of the torpedoes that missed Wasp, one hit North Carolina and one hit the destroyer O'Brien.
The Japanese submarine torpedo had a range of 5 miles at a speed of 50 knots or 6 1/2 miles at 46 knots. It was the best World War II torpedo of any navy.
Two torpedoes struck Wasp's starboard side almost simultaneously, one near the gasoline storage tanks and the other near the forward bomb magazine. About twenty seconds later, another explosion occurred. Gasoline fires broke out near the athwartships gasoline main on the second deck and low in the ship near ruptured gasoline tanks. Another major fire started forward in the hangar. Gasoline poured freely from ruptured tanks onto the surface of the water. When that gasoline ignited, the forward part of the ship was engulfed in flames. One 5"/38 ready ammunition locker ignited followed by internal explosions.
The Captain maneuvered the ship to keep the wind on her starboard quarter to blow the fire away from the undamaged portion of the ship. The Captain attempted to back the ship into the wind for to escape the gasoline fire on the water's surface, but this proved unsuccessful, as gasoline kept pouring from the tanks.
After a series of heavy explosions of gasoline vapor, loss of fire main pressure and failure of every attempt to bring the fire under control, the Captain ordered "abandon ship" at 3:20 p.m. Abandon ship was completed by 4:00 p.m., by which time Wasp was completely enveloped in flame.
193 sailors died and 366 were wounded in the attack. 45 planes went down with the ship.
Wasp stubbornly continued to float and was sunk by her escorts that night.
North Carolina returned to Pearl Harbor for repair of a 20 foot hole and was out of action for the rest of the year. O'Brien was temporarily repaired, but her damaged seams opened up a month later and she sank while returning to San Francisco for permanent repair.
With Enterprise (CV-6) damaged by bombs at Eastern Solomons, Saratoga damaged by a torpedo, and Wasp sunk, Hornet was the only carrier left in the South Pacific for six weeks. Hornet, too, was to be lost in the Battle of Santa Cruz Island on 26 Oct 1942 from air attack. Enterprise was damaged, again, and there were no active fleet carriers in the Pacific until Enterprise returned 12 Nov for the Naval Battles of Guadalcanal with repair parties still aboard and one elevator out of service.
Meanwhile, back on Guadalcanal, Japanese Major General Kawaguchi launched an attack with 3,000 soldiers of his brigade against Marine Lieutenant Colonel Edson's Ranger force of 850 marines. Kawaguchi lost 850 killed and the marines lost 104.
On September 15, Imperial General Headquarters in Japan learned of Kawaguchi's defeat and convened an emergency session. The top Japanese army and navy command staffs concluded that, "Guadalcanal might develop into the decisive battle of the war." The results to date began to have a strategic impact on Japanese operations in other areas of the Pacific. Army commanders realized that in order to send sufficient troops and materiel to defeat the Allied forces on Guadalcanal, they could not at the same time support the major ongoing Japanese offensive on the Kokoda Track in New Guinea. General Hyakutake, with the concurrence of General Headquarters, ordered his troops on New Guinea, who were within 30 miles of their objective of Port Moresby, to withdraw until the "Guadalcanal matter" was resolved. He prepared to send more troops to Guadalcanal for another attempt to recapture Henderson Field.
The Japanese submarine torpedo had a range of 5 miles at a speed of 50 knots or 6 1/2 miles at 46 knots. It was the best World War II torpedo of any navy.
Two torpedoes struck Wasp's starboard side almost simultaneously, one near the gasoline storage tanks and the other near the forward bomb magazine. About twenty seconds later, another explosion occurred. Gasoline fires broke out near the athwartships gasoline main on the second deck and low in the ship near ruptured gasoline tanks. Another major fire started forward in the hangar. Gasoline poured freely from ruptured tanks onto the surface of the water. When that gasoline ignited, the forward part of the ship was engulfed in flames. One 5"/38 ready ammunition locker ignited followed by internal explosions.
The Captain maneuvered the ship to keep the wind on her starboard quarter to blow the fire away from the undamaged portion of the ship. The Captain attempted to back the ship into the wind for to escape the gasoline fire on the water's surface, but this proved unsuccessful, as gasoline kept pouring from the tanks.
After a series of heavy explosions of gasoline vapor, loss of fire main pressure and failure of every attempt to bring the fire under control, the Captain ordered "abandon ship" at 3:20 p.m. Abandon ship was completed by 4:00 p.m., by which time Wasp was completely enveloped in flame.
193 sailors died and 366 were wounded in the attack. 45 planes went down with the ship.
Wasp stubbornly continued to float and was sunk by her escorts that night.
North Carolina returned to Pearl Harbor for repair of a 20 foot hole and was out of action for the rest of the year. O'Brien was temporarily repaired, but her damaged seams opened up a month later and she sank while returning to San Francisco for permanent repair.
With Enterprise (CV-6) damaged by bombs at Eastern Solomons, Saratoga damaged by a torpedo, and Wasp sunk, Hornet was the only carrier left in the South Pacific for six weeks. Hornet, too, was to be lost in the Battle of Santa Cruz Island on 26 Oct 1942 from air attack. Enterprise was damaged, again, and there were no active fleet carriers in the Pacific until Enterprise returned 12 Nov for the Naval Battles of Guadalcanal with repair parties still aboard and one elevator out of service.
Meanwhile, back on Guadalcanal, Japanese Major General Kawaguchi launched an attack with 3,000 soldiers of his brigade against Marine Lieutenant Colonel Edson's Ranger force of 850 marines. Kawaguchi lost 850 killed and the marines lost 104.
On September 15, Imperial General Headquarters in Japan learned of Kawaguchi's defeat and convened an emergency session. The top Japanese army and navy command staffs concluded that, "Guadalcanal might develop into the decisive battle of the war." The results to date began to have a strategic impact on Japanese operations in other areas of the Pacific. Army commanders realized that in order to send sufficient troops and materiel to defeat the Allied forces on Guadalcanal, they could not at the same time support the major ongoing Japanese offensive on the Kokoda Track in New Guinea. General Hyakutake, with the concurrence of General Headquarters, ordered his troops on New Guinea, who were within 30 miles of their objective of Port Moresby, to withdraw until the "Guadalcanal matter" was resolved. He prepared to send more troops to Guadalcanal for another attempt to recapture Henderson Field.
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