Fork in the Road

"When you come to a fork in the road, take it."
-Attributed to Yogi Berra

We at the height are ready to decline.
There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
-Brutus speaking in Shakespeare, Julius Caesar (IV.ii.269–276)

Today's New York Times reports that the Obama administration had an internal struggle over how to respond to events in Egypt. Should they emphasize the need for an orderly transition (thus appearing to prop up an increasingly reviled dictator), openly push Mubarak out the door, or support the demonstrators by emphasizing the need for democratic reforms and for Egyptians to find their own solutions.

As always, the cautious old foreign policy hands emphasize stability. Don't rock the boat. Give him time. Orderly transition. Democracy is hard.

The problem is, the tide was already running. We were at the fork in the road. We had to "take the current when it serves" the cause of democracy.

There are always risks in international affairs. But when the tide is running, we have to navigate between Scylla and Charybdis. Jumping overboard is not an option. Even if the rudder is smaller than we wish and the wind is fickle.

Twenty-one years ago, a series of events similar to the past three weeks led to the dismantling of the Berlin Wall. Old hands (I was one) worried that German reunification might be bad for the rest of Europe and NATO. It could destabilize Europe. Despite decades of lip service to German reunification, the dirty secret is that none of NATO's member states wanted it to actually happen. But it soon became apparent it was impossible to prevent. Best get on with it.

In a similar vein, in the long run we're better off with Mubarak gone.

Do we believe in democracy or not? If we do, then let's support it wholeheartedly.

Be not afraid.