Drones, War and Moral Hazard

There has been a lot of discussion by talking heads and writing (by writing heads?) recently about drones. And not just against terrorists. It almost sound like our domestic airspace will soon be full of drones.

Let's give some thought to what we are about. I'm not sure that dressing game console operators up in flight suits, paying them "incentive pay" (we used to call it flight pay), calling them "pilots" and giving them hero medals is what we should be doing.

What I think I'm hearing is a lot of relatively naive talk about "killing the bad guys" though it might be couched in more sophisticated verbiage.

In the popular imagination, war is about killing as many of our opponents as possible. In the professional imagination, Karl von Klausewitz was closer to the mark when he explained that "war is politics by other, namely violent means." What he means, is that there must be a point to what we do beyond killing "the bad guys."

War is not completely separate from diplomacy, either. I think presidential scholar Richard Neustadt got it about right a half century ago when he described the task of diplomacy as to convince enough people and the right people on the other side that what you want is what they also want, in order to further their own interest.

Some sources of human conflict are best moderated with deterrence, some with "compellance," and some with negotiation. Wisdom lies in knowing when. And to what end.

Violence, in the long run, is not a way of resolving human conflict. In international affairs, it is at best like the two by four the farmer hits the mule with. "That's to get it's attention," the farmer explains.

Once you get the opponent's attention, maybe it's best to sit down and reason together.

Back to the subject of drones. And moral hazard.

Let me repeat some earlier thoughts.

Economists talk about "moral hazard." This refers to a situation where there is a tendency to take undue risks because the costs are not borne by the party taking the risk. Like financial wizards who take in enormous bonuses just before the crash and leaves it to the rest of the country to pick up the pieces. We should extend the concept to war.

In 1941 and 1942 the attacking forces faced at least as much risk as those being attacked. This was true at Pearl Harbor, at Bataan and Corregidor, in the Coral Sea,  at Midway, and countless other battles.

It is usually not true of the political leaders who order a country to war. They do not bear the risks that face the military forces.

The equation of risk becomes distorted forever when attacks are conducted from halfway around the world by skilled gamers who sit in front of computers and direct robotic drones to destroy targets and people. It is the inhabitants of target areas who bear the risk.

Is this a kind of moral risk we are willing to take?

As a professional military officer, I always wanted to minimize the risk to my own sailors. At what point does this kind of planning cross a moral divide?

Apart from moral considerations, we may need to think about the message we convey. Is the message that our cause is not worth risking an American life? If so, we should say so. But we need to ask ourselves the question - if a cause is not worth dying for, is it worth killing for?

Does The US Need A Different Layout Of States?

Today's New York Times web site posted a very interesting analysis of the electoral college by Nate Silver on his blog, Five Thirty-Eight. The article's headline, "Did Democrats Get Lucky In The Electoral College?" doesn't convey the depth and innovation of the analysis.

The most interesting component of the analysis is a map of the United States redrawn into fifty states, each with equal population. The point of the map is to illustrate the effect such redrawn boundaries would have on the outcome of the electoral college.


Nate Silver's discussion  of the electoral college and the associated issues of reapportionment and redistricting is among the best I have ever read. I like the map, but also like a table in the article showing the distribution of population within each state into urban, suburban and rural. Not unsurprisingly, Wyoming is the most rural state in the union. Vermont is the least urban, followed by Mississippi with only 4% urban population.

As I looked at the map, I was also struck by its resemblance to a concept put forth by George Kennan in his 1993 book "Around The Cragged Hill." In short, Kennan believed the United States was so big as to be ungovernable. He proposed that a better scheme would be to split the country apart into what amounted to city-states.

Years later, others picked up on Kennan's idea and began pushing a movement to promote the idea of states seceding from the Union. Then again, maybe they didn't even know about Kennan's ideas.

Persistent, Patient Courage

Courage comes in many guises. Here, in a story from Today's New York Times, is one of the most powerful forms of courage.

I don't know General Borling. On the basis of this story, I would follow him anywhere.

Borling doesn't claim to be heroic. That reflects the self effacing but effective courage of an older generation - a very much older generation.

Borling's view of what's important: do the best you can with what you have, right where you are.

Lifebuoy: B.O.

In recognition that it was a bit foggy this morning, Town Dock posted a link to the audio sound of a fog horn.

In all honesty, Town Dock's fog horn was a bit wimpy. But it called to mind a more robust fog horn that sounded on the radio during the 30's and 40's along with a public service announcement. Well, you could call it that, at least back in the days when people took baths at least once a week whether they needed it or not.

Here's the announcement.

If you prefer just a robust fog horn, here's a different link without the "public service."

Safe navigating!

How The Romans Handled Debt And Credit

Two researchers at the New York Fed have been looking into money and credit in ancient Rome. How did they use debt and credit to move money around?

Turns out they could move large amounts of money by paper transactions. Not unlike our modern "shadow" banking system.

Bookkeeping must have been a challenge without having zeroes to play with.

Even without zeroes, Romans managed to move a lot of money around without hauling physical gold and silver.

Here's how.

Seventy Years Ago: USS Iowa (BB-61)

 

New York, NY: February 22, 1943. USS Iowa (BB-61) was commissioned at New York Naval Shipyard. The lead ship of the most powerful US battleships ever built, Iowa was a 45,000 -ton ship armed with nine 16-inch/50 caliber guns with a range of up to 24 miles, firing a projectile weighing up to 2,750 pounds. She also carried twenty 40-mm quadruple barrel Bofors anti-aircraft guns and twenty 5-inch/38 caliber dual-purpose guns arranged in twin mounts with a range of about 9 miles against surface targets. In addition, she bristled with 20-mm antiaircraft guns that proved of limited use and were removed right after the war.

Class & type:	Iowa-class battleship
Displacement:	45,000 tons
Length:	887 ft 3 in (270.43 m)
Beam:	108 ft 2 in (32.97 m)
Draft:	37 ft 2 in (11.33 m)
Speed:	33 kn (38 mph; 61 km/h)
Complement:	151 officers, 2637 enlisted
Armament:	1943: 9 × 16 in (406 mm)/50 cal Mark 7 guns 20 × 5 in (127.0 mm)/38 cal Mark 12 guns 80 × 40 mm/56 cal anti-aircraft guns 49 × 20 mm/70 cal anti-aircraft cannons

USS Iowa is the first ship I ever went to sea in  during a midshipman training cruise to Europe during the summer of 1955.

Wind Generators: Department of Defense Data

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Wind Energy And Cherry Point

Two weeks ago the Pamlico County Board of Commissioners and the Pamlico County Planning Board had a joint meeting at the court house to receive a briefing by Cherry Point on wind generation systems. Specifically, Cherry Point briefed on problems for their air operations that are anticipated from wind turbines.

The briefing acknowledged that it is national policy and the policy of the Department of Defense to encourage alternative energy sources. The briefing did not emphasize, as it might have, that Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus has been a leading proponent of alternative energy. 

The main focus of the briefing was how wind turbines adversely affect Marine radar systems and how important radar is to their air operations. The main challenge was how to mitigate those effects.

Unfortunately, Cherry Point officials offered no hope and no prospects of hope for mitigation. "To date," one presentation slide asserts, "no study data is published indicating technology exists to eliminate wind turbine adverse effects on radar."

Not so. There are studies.

A 2008 study by MITRE Corporation, one of DOD's most experienced electronics contractors observed. "There is no fundamental physical constraint that prohibits the accurate detection of aircraft and weather patterns around wind farms. On the other hand, the nation’s aging long range radar infrastructure significantly increases the challenge of distinguishing wind farm signatures from airplanes or weather.

"Progress forward requires the development of mitigation measures, and
quantitative evaluation tools and metrics to determine when a wind farm
poses a sufficient threat to a radar installation for corrective action to be
taken. Mitigation measures may include modifications to wind farms (such
as methods to reduce radar cross section; and telemetry from wind farms to
radar), as well as modifications to radar (such as improvements in processing;
radar design modifications; radar replacement; and the use of gap fillers in
radar coverage).

"There is great potential for the mitigation procedures, though there
is currently no source of funding to test how proposed mitigations work in
practice. In general, the government and industry should cooperate to find
methods for funding studies of technical mitigations. NOAA has an excellent
research plan, but no adequate funding to carry it out.

"Once the potential for different mitigations are understood, we see no
scientific hurdle for constructing regulations that are technically based and
simple to understand and implement, with a single government entity tak-
ing responsibility for overseeing the process. In individual cases, the best
solution might be to replace the aging radar station with modern and flexi-
ble equipment that is more able to separate wind farm clutter from aircraft."
Mitre's conclusion: "This is a win-win situation for national security, both improving our radar
infrastructure and promoting the growth of sustainable energy."


So the problem isn't technology, it is budgets for what may prove to be fairly minor improvements to radars, new procedures, and possibly coatings for turbine blades to reduce their radar cross-sections. I got the distinct impression that the Marine Corps isn't sufficiently concerned to spend any R&D funds fixing their radars. Why should they, if they can achieve the same end at no cost by intimidating state and local government? The only cost would be to retard economic development in Pamlico County and that doesn't cost the Marine Corps a dime.


In her introductory remarks to the meeting, Commissioner Holton emphasized the potential economic development benefits of wind energy to Pamlico County.

Speaking of mitigation, any measure to replace fossil fuel energy sources with non-carbon alternatives such as wind, solar or nuclear, will delay anticipated sea level rise from global warming. That should matter to every resident of Pamlico County and elsewhere in Eastern North Carolina. In my case, I just raised my house three feet to mitigate the effect of storm surge after Irene. But predictions are that the sea level will rise one meter (39 inches) this century. If so, my house is back in the flood waters.

So I am in favor of wind, solar and nuclear power. No single solution - all of the above.

This discussion has been going on for awhile here and here and here and here and here and here.

Not certain I have the whole story, I did more research on the wind farm/radar issues. What I have found is:

1. There is data. Some was reported to the Congress in 2006: www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/WindFarmReport.pdf

2. There is information on what mitigation works.

3. The problems concern two types of radar: Air Defense systems (AD) and weather radar.

4. My reading of the report to Congress is that there is no problem with Air Traffic Control (ATC) radar. The reason for this is that ATC relies not only on direct radar return ("skin paint") but also on transponder beacon returns like IFF. The briefing did not mention this distinction, but the bulk of the briefing was by Cherry Point's ATC expert. I don't know if Marine ATC controllers have the aircraft turn off their IFF or other beacons while training at high speed and low altitude in this region. Maybe they do, but if so, we should be told. Whether to turn it on or off during training ops is a procedural issue.

5. Distance from the affected radar can itself provide the necessary mitigation. The key factor is distance from the radar to the radar horizon - which is a bit further than the unobstructed visible horizon would be. Bottom line is, that for a normal radar height, and a blade tip height of 300 feet, there would be no interference beyond a distance of 30 miles, even without special mitigation. For a blade tip height of 500 feet, the safe distance would be 35 miles. Trouble is, Pamlico County is within either distance. But that only applies to AD radars. For ATC radars, there should be no problem.

So what kind of radar are they talking about? The briefing did not provide enough information for Pamlico County planners and commissioners to develop suitable regulations for wind farms.

Weather radar is a different matter. Here is a pretty good illustration and discussion of the problem: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=windfarm There is also some discussion of weather radar in the report to Congress. I did not get the impression from the Cherry Point briefing that they are worried about the weather radar.

I'm not sure what to make of it.

I think the county needs more information.

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Picasso's Secret

Now we know Picasso's secret. Thanks to Argonne National Laboratory and a study using high energy X-rays, we have learned that Picasso painted some of his masterpieces using house paint.

It isn't fair. We have always been told that a craftsman is known by his tools. A fine craftsman must use the best tools. And the best materials.

So how can Pablo Picasso, one of history's great artists, have made great art with ordinary house paint?

Maybe we need to alter conventional wisdom. Perhaps great craftsmen and artists are free to choose the tools and materials that work, not just the "best quality" tools.

Don't be snobbish.

Do what works.

Minimum Wage

I have been reading a lot of scholarly articles on the minimum wage. Most of them pooh-pooh the idea that raising the minimum wage will cost jobs. There's a lot of research showing that no job loss will occur, especially when we are at the zero lower bound and caught in a liquidity trap.

I thought about posting links to some of the articles. Here's one blog post among many. Be sure to click on John Schmitt's (pdf) document. Instead of posting many links to scholarly posts, I decided to post a link to a cartoon in today's New York Times. Here is the link to the Strip.

Duck And Cover!

Yulia Karbysheva, a fourth grade teacher in Chelyabinsk, Russia, saved 44 students in her class from injury by telling them to "duck and cover," the Cold War defensive maneuver from a half century ago. The teacher herself suffered an injury, but not her students. She didn't know what was happening when she saw the brilliant light from the meteorite that landed nearby, but she knew what to do.

Older residents of Chelyabinsk had likely been trained in such protective measures. Chelyabinsk has been a center of defense industry since Joseph Stalin moved huge factories East of the Ural Mountains in 1941 to get them beyond the reach of Hitler's invading armies.

A town of about 45,000 at the outset of World War I, Chelyabinsk experienced rapid growth during Soviet industrialization of the 1930s. Several industrial establishments, including a Tractor Plant and a Metallurgical Plant, were built at this time. Relocation of industries to the Urals in 1941 began a period of rapid expansion. There were several tank factories and plants to manufacture Katysha rockets. The town became known jokingly as "Tankograd" (Tank City). Chelyabinsk was essentially built from scratch during this time.

Later in the 1940's the area around Chelyabinsk (Chelyabinsk Oblast') became a center of nuclear weapons development. It is thought that much of the area has suffered environmental damage from plutonium pollution.

Perhaps the area will now become a center of the meteorite tourism industry.

US Federal Debt TO GDP Ratio Recent History

Recent US Debt To GDP Ratio

As you can see from this chart, the ratio of debt to GDP declined in the Johnson administration, continuing through Nixon/Ford and Carter. Then the ratio skyrockets from 1981 through 1992 (Reagan, Bush I) begins to level off in 1993 and declines sharply during the Clinton administration. Skyrockets again under Bush II, who ran the economy into the ditch. Subsequent increase in debt is what automatically happens with high unemployment and economic collapse. To get out of the ditch, we need to expand employment.

My Job

Just want to share a little poem that makes a point some may agree with:

MY JOB
It’s not my job to drive the train,
The whistle I can’t blow.
It’s not my job to say how far
The train’s allowed to go.
It’s not my job to blow the horn,
Nor even clang the bell.
But let the damn thing jump the track
And see who catches hell.

Maybe a better title would be: NOT MY JOB

The Face Of America

Essie Mae Washington-Williams, the child Strom Thurmond had with a black maid, passed away on Monday, February 4, 2013. This photograph, taken in Charleston in 2003 when the relationship became public, can be seen as the face of America.

I am particularly struck by the face of the man to Essie Mae's left. He is Essie Mae's son, Strom Thurmond's grandson. To her right is her daughter. These are strong faces. The faces of leaders.

Our American faces.

Growth In Spending - Recent Presidents

Economist Mark Thoma has posted a bar chart showing per capita changes in government spending under recent presidents (Nixon to present). You may find it interesting.



Had there been growth instead of contraction during Obama's presidency, it seems fair to suggest that unemployment would have already returned to a normal range.

We have Republicans in both houses of Congress to thank for where we stand.

Black Death And Papal Resignation

I read this morning that Pope Benedict XVI has announced his resignation. The Washington Post account mentioned that the last papal resignation was in 1415.

The 1415 resignation is one of the most interesting events in European history. It was preceded by the Babylonian Captivity of the Pope, the Black Death, and the Burning of Jan Hus. It was followed by the first Protestant regime in Europe, that of Bohemia and Moravia, the subsequent Protestant Reformation and the Renaissance and Enlightenment. These events were all accompanied by the end of serfdom in Europe, at least until 1619.

And by the way, the 100 Years' War between England and France.

It was all set in motion, or at least accelerated, by the Black Death (bubonic plague) of 1348, which killed from a quarter to two-thirds of the population of Europe.

Survivors wanted to know who to blame. In Germany and much of France, the answer was obvious: Jews had poisoned the wells. Thousands of Jews (who by the way were dying in great numbers also) were rounded up and slaughtered.

In Bohemia, however, many saw the plague as God's punishment for a corrupt church. One manifestation of that corruption was the fact that, since 1309, the Catholic Church had had two Popes, one in Avignon, under influence of the King of France and one in Rome. Another example of the church's corruption in the view of many clerics was the sale of indulgences, which so offended Martin Luther a century later.

The situation was exacerbated, in the eyes of the church hierarchy, by dissident priests challenging central tenets of Catholicism. The most prominent of these in the late 14th century was John Wycliffe of England, who escaped papal retribution by dying in December, 1384. The other prominent voice of dissent was the Bohemian Jan Hus, who was very much alive.

By 1415 there were three popes. Church authorities hoped to resolve the problem by scheduling a Council at Constanz, in present-day Germany. They also hoped to resolve the matter of their troublesome priests. John Wycliffe was already dead, but the Council declared him a heretic, ordered his body exhumed, decreed that his books be burned. The exhumation was carried out in 1428 when, at the command of Pope Martin V, his remains were dug up, burned, and the ashes cast into the River Swift.

Jan Hus was "invited" to the Council under a safe conduct. The safe conduct was not enforced. He refused to recant, and was burned at the stake.

Gregory XII, the Roman pope,  resigned so that a special council in Constance, which is today a German city, could excommunicate the Avignon-based pope and start fresh with a new, single leader of the Catholic church.

A year later, just to show they weren't kidding, the Council burned Jerome, Jan Hus' deputy, at the stake.

If the new pope thought that would end the problems with Bohemia and Moravia, he was badly mistaken. The countryside rose up against the pope and his supporters among the nobility. The supporters of Hus fled to the Bohemian hills and fortified their headquarters. Appointing a one-eyed general (Jan Zizka) to lead their peasant army,during the following seventeen years, the Hussites fought back against seven different papal crusades, defeating the Catholic Nobles at every turn.

Eventually cutting a deal with the least militant Hussites, the Utraquists, the pope looked the other way while Bohemia and Moravia were allowed to practice what amounted to protestantism for nearly two centuries.

Education What's Wrong?

Too Many Cooks Spoil The Broth, at least according to an old bit of folk wisdom.

I have taken a preliminary look at bills introduced into the General Assembly that concern education.

A plethora of cooks!

I have been amazed for years at the steady stream of venom aimed at public schools, their teachers, and all who labor mightily at educating our children.

Our schools are failing! How do we know? Everyone says so.

When did everyone start saying that? As it happens, people started saying such things about 1970. Why? I'll save that for another post.

Since (we all know) the schools are failing, we have decided to give them more tasks, increase class size, and provide more direction by politicians.

How is that working out?

As it happens, we have the testimony of witnesses.

One such witness is Kenneth Bernstein, a recently retired high school teacher from Maryland. He has written a warning to college professors about the students about to enter their domain. His essay is definitely worth reading.

As is too often the case, actual experienced practitioners are keenly aware of problems in their area of expertise, but are powerless to do anything about it.

Bernstein makes it clear how much teachers resent the fact that their professionalism and dedication are not taken seriously.
 
IMHO, he has a point.

The late W. Edwards Deming, world renowned expert in quality control, observed in general that 85% of problems in quality are because of management. Mismanagement, if you will.

And teachers are workers, not management. In short, they are not to blame. Only those who make and run a system are responsible for the outcome. Increasingly that is meddling legislators and other elected officials.

Not long before he died, Deming completed a book titled The New Economics For Industry, Government, Education. Anyone interested in making a positive contribution to any of these three areas of human endeavor should read his book.

When Homeowner's Associations Get Out Of Hand

This is a Fairfax County, Virginia case, but is probably of interest elsewhere. Turns out even HOA's have to follow the law. Worth reading.

2013 Session, NC General Assembly

The 2013 session of the North Carolina Legislative Assembly has been in session for a little over a week. So far, representatives have introduced 87 bills and senators have introduced 75. It's a safe bet that more drafts will be filed in the weeks to come.

Some of the bills are necessarily complex and their effects obscure.

In all cases, key questions that must be answered  for each bill are: "who benefits" and "who pays."

I plan to examine selected bills, especially those bearing on elections, education, energy and transportation.

Once I feel that I understand the bills, I plan to share my thoughts on this blog.

So far, I am prepared to lend my support to two bills:

H 38: Repeal Second Primaries. I support that measure. As I have previously written, not only are second primaries expensive, very few voters turn out. Only eight states, all from the former Confederacy, still hold second or runoff primaries. Best save some money and do away with them.

H 62: Pamlico and Neuse River Ferries/No Tolling. This bill does away with tolls on the Cherry Point/Minnesott Beach and the Aurora ferries. No resident of Pamlico County needs any further explanation.

More to come.

Refurbished Town Hall In Oriental

Oriental, NC had the official opening ceremony for the newly refurbished Town Hall. The event was well attended by public officials as well as local citizens. All who attended enjoyed the opportunity to see inside. Everyone seemed quite impressed with the facility.

Any resident who didn't make it to the grand opening should still make it a point to drop by as soon as possible.

This was a job well done, and the building will serve the Town well for many years.

Seventy Years Ago: The Week That Was

February 8, 1943, Japanese destroyer force (Rear Admiral Hashimoto Shintaro) completes the evacuation of 1,796 troops from Guadalcanal. The next day, February 9, 1943, US Army General Patch announced the end of organized Japanese resistance on the Island.

January 31, 1943, the German headquarters of the 6th Army at Stalingrad surrendered, including Field Marshall Paulus. Remaining scattered units surrendered February 2, ending the siege of Stalingrad.

To the north, on January 18, 1943, The Soviet Union established a land corridor iinto Leningrad, providing some relief for the siege of Leningrad, though it would be another year before the siege was completely broken.

Things were not going so well for the Allies in North Africa, but Germany was no longer able to reliably supply Rommel's forces. Rommel's forces would last for another three months.

There were to be no further Axis advances on any front.

A Three Cent Stamp Costs 46 Cents?

I can remember when a first class stamp cost 3 cents. We didn't call them "first class stamps" - we called them "three-cent stamps.".

In those days in the 40's and 50's, a candy bar, Pepsi or ice cream cone cost a nickel. From 1932 until 1958, a regular first class stamp cost 3 cents. From 1928 to 1952, a post card cost one cent to mail. Air Mail cost more, depending on weight and distance.

Now, not only has postage gone up to 46 cents for a 3 cent stamp, a nickel Pepsi or Hershey Bar cost over a dollar, and a nickel ice cream cone is a buck and a half.

According to conservative opponents who are trying to kill the Postal Service, curtail service and take away our local post offices, the USPS is bankrupt.

Jim Hightower has the real story here.

Why Not Nuclear Energy?

Chernobyl and Three Mile Island had already pretty much brought the US nuclear power industry to a halt, when Japan had a tsunami at Fukushima. These were all bad accidents.

The truth is, though, not many lives were lost. Compare lives lost in nuclear mishaps with those lost in the coal and oil industries, gas distribution explosions, much less accidents in employment of those energy products, and nuclear looks very safe by comparison.

Neither does nuclear power spew carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and other products that will enhance global warming, sea level rise, and other expensive and destructive eventualities.

Nuclear power makes economic and public safety sense.

Still, there is vast public opposition to nuclear.

Ashutosh Jogalekar, a chemist, examines in Scientific American the five most significant reasons that liberals oppose nuclear power. He counters each reason with a rational discussion of pros and cons.

Good article, worth reading.

I mostly agree.

Jogalekar likes the liquid thorium reactor design for its improved safety. He does not mention the pebble bed reactor, which China seems to favor.

I believe the liquid thorium reactor is similar to the design used in the twin-reactor power plant of USS Triton, commanded by Captain Edward L. Beach during the first submerged circumnavigation of the globe.

Wind Energy And Cherry Point

Last night the Pamlico County Board of Commissioners and the Pamlico County Planning Board had a joint meeting at the court house to receive a briefing by Cherry Point on wind generation systems. Specifically, Cherry Point briefed on problems for their air operations that are anticipated from wind turbines.

The briefing acknowledged that it is national policy and the policy of the Department of Defense to encourage alternative energy sources. The briefing did not emphasize, as it might have, that Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus has been a leading proponent of alternative energy. 

The main focus of the briefing was how wind turbines adversely affect Marine radar systems and how important radar is to their air operations. The main challenge was how to mitigate those effects.

Unfortunately, Cherry Point officials offered no hope and no prospects of hope for mitigation. "To date," one presentation slide asserts, "no study data is published indicating technology exists to eliminate wind turbine adverse effects on radar."

That isn't exactly what was reported in a 2008 study by MITRE Corporation, one of DOD's most experienced electronics contractors. "There is no fundamental physical constraint that prohibits the accurate detection of aircraft and weather patterns around wind farms. On the other hand, the nation’s aging long range radar infrastructure significantly increases the challenge of distinguishing wind farm signatures from airplanes or weather.

"Progress forward requires the development of mitigation measures, and
quantitative evaluation tools and metrics to determine when a wind farm
poses a sufficient threat to a radar installation for corrective action to be
taken. Mitigation measures may include modifications to wind farms (such
as methods to reduce radar cross section; and telemetry from wind farms to
radar), as well as modifications to radar (such as improvements in processing;
radar design modifications; radar replacement; and the use of gap fillers in
radar coverage).

"There is great potential for the mitigation procedures, though there
is currently no source of funding to test how proposed mitigations work in
practice. In general, the government and industry should cooperate to find
methods for funding studies of technical mitigations. NOAA has an excellent
research plan, but no adequate funding to carry it out.

"Once the potential for different mitigations are understood, we see no
scientific hurdle for constructing regulations that are technically based and
simple to understand and implement, with a single government entity tak-
ing responsibility for overseeing the process. In individual cases, the best
solution might be to replace the aging radar station with modern and flexi-
ble equipment that is more able to separate wind farm clutter from aircraft.
This is a win-win situation for national security, both improving our radar
infrastructure and promoting the growth of sustainable energy."


So the problem isn't technology, it is budgets for what may prove to be fairly minor improvements to radars, new procedures, and possibly coatings for turbine blades to reduce their radar cross-sections. I got the distinct impression that the Marine Corps isn't sufficiently concerned to spend any R&D funds fixing their radars. Why should they, if they can achieve the same end at no cost by intimidating state and local government? The only cost would be to retard economic development in Pamlico County and that doesn't cost the Marine Corps a dime.


In her introductory remarks to the meeting, Commissioner Holton emphasized the potential economic development benefits of wind energy to Pamlico County.

Speaking of mitigation, any measure to replace fossil fuel energy sources with non-carbon alternatives such as wind, solar or nuclear, will delay anticipated sea level rise from global warming. That should matter to every resident of Pamlico County and elsewhere in Eastern North Carolina. In my case, I just raised my house three feet to mitigate the effect of storm surge after Irene. But predictions are that the sea level will rise one meter (39 inches) this century. If so, my house is back in the flood waters.

So I am in favor of wind, solar and nuclear power. No single solution - all of the above.

This discussion has been going on for awhile here and here and here and here and here and here.

Virginia Republican House Speaker Shows Integrity And Class

Republican Representative William Howell, Speaker of the Virginia House of Representatives, ruled that a Senate redistricting bill which had been added to a bill calling for minor “technical adjustments” to House districts.  Virginia Senate Republicans tacked on a 36-page floor amendment that redrew Senate lines across the state. That amendment, Howell ruled, was not germane to the original bill.

The redistricting plan, which received national attention when Virginia Republicans took advantage of the absence of a Democrat regarded as a civil rights leader, who was away attending President Obama’s inauguration. The measure likely would have passed in the House had it gone to the floor for a vote. But Speaker Howell had the power to make it go away. Had it passed the House, it would almost certainly have led to a court challenge, since the Virginia Constitution stipulates that redistricting be done the year following the decennial census.

It's a pleasure to read of an action based on a legislative official's sense of integrity. Well done, Speaker Howell!

Baggywrinkle

A lovely home built gaffer tied up at Town Dock today. Nicely rigged, complete with baggywrinkle.  The owner says he has sailed her 23,000 miles.

If I can ever figure out how to upload from my iphone, I'll put up a photo. Here it is.

Too Many Choices?

My wife is from Texas. When I was stationed in a distant location, she would write home and ask for a "care package" of essentials, including Ro-Tel tomatoes, an essential ingredient in chili con queso. There was never any confusion. Go to the store, find the canned tomato section and pick out one or more cans of Ro-Tel tomatoes.

No more. Now we have choices. There are at least four recipes of Ro-Tel tomatoes. Plus Ro-Tel tomato sauces. I have to read the labels. Before, if we wanted to spice up the con queso, we could add stuff to the tomatoes: a bit of lime juice, some chopped up cilantro, maybe some more jalapenos.

What if none of the four recipes is exactly what I want? Then I can add spices, just like I used to.

Am I happier? Not necessarily. Has life improved now that the various recipes are canned by Nebraska food conglomerate ConAgra instead of some small outfit in Texas?

Is it possible to have too many choices?

Take a look at the rest of the cans in the tomato section. Several different brands. All offer canned, peeled, whole tomatoes, crushed tomatoes, diced tomatoes (with and without peppers), reduced sodium tomatoes, tomatoes with and without basil, plum tomatoes, round tomatoes. More labels to read.

How many years has it been since the US Supreme Court decided I need more choices in my telephone service? I stubbornly stayed with AT&T. I can't have them for land line, but my wireless and e-mail service are with AT&T.

I know people who change their wireless service at the slightest whiff of a possibly better deal. I prefer stability. I still get occasional e-mails from people I haven't heard from in decades.

Works for me.

The problem is, I feel afflicted, not freed, by the multiplicity of choices I have to make. All these choices appear to have been inflicted upon us by the children of Tom Brokaw's "greatest generation." I have a hard time accepting that characterization. I think the baby boomers are arguably the worst generation. Self-centered. Not all of them. Some of our children fall in that cohort. They aren't self centered. But many are and they have dominated markets and dominated intellectual and political discourse for too long.

We hear a lot of assertion of rights. Currently it's about "our second amendment rights." We hear very little discussion about obligations.

Society is the poorer for the absence of such discourse.

All is not lost. At least one author has undertaken a thoughtful examination of choices and markets. He is a Canadian scientist, and I just came across a link to the first chapter of his new book, No One Makes You Shop At Wal-Mart. Check it out.

Public Alcohol: Don't Scare The Horses!

It is revealing to read letters to Town Dock concerning recent proposals to allow consumption of alcoholic beverages on Town property under some circumstances. I'm not sure what it reveals, but I'm sure Commissioner Summers was surprised at the vehement opposition to what he thought was a modest proposal.

I am reminded of a remark by a highly fashionable lady concerning another sort of activity:

"My Dear!" she said, "I don't care what they do so long as they don't do it in the street and frighten the horses!"