Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Less Or Fewer? Not Just A Linguistic Pet Peeve - A Logic Trap

Yesterday's Scientific American addressed in a blog one of my linguistic pet peeves: the increasingly common failure of speakers to distinguish between meaning and usage of "less" and "fewer."

It seems mighty simple to me. If you count it, the reduction in number is referred to as "fewer." If you measure it, the word is "less."

Scientific American explains the distinction as deriving from the mathematical concepts of "continuous," which applies to things you measure, or "discrete," applying to things you count. Here is the article.


Return With Us Now To The Thrilling Days Of Yesteryear

Many commentators have observed that North Carolina is rapidly undoing a century of relatively progressive legislation. In Yesterday's Washington Post, Katrina vanden Heuvel explains how that came about.

The answer: money.

NSA, Metadata And History

Recent disclosures that NSA has been collecting data, perhaps massive amounts of so-called meta data, on telephone, internet and social network communications calls to mind some history.

From the very beginning of the Republic - and even before, intelligence played a major role in our revolution. Consider the mobilization of patriots in New England to resist and outwit the Redcoats intending to seize the arms and military provisions of the local militia. There was not only the midnight ride of Paul Revere (and others) that fateful 18th of April in '75. There was all the preparatory work.

The Concord militia removed their heavy cannon from the armory and buried the big guns in hidden locations. They relocated gunpowder and other supplies. They hid as much of the other provisions and weapons as they could. How did they know what the British intended? Intelligence. Collected by bartenders, artisans and ordinary citizens who interacted with soldiers and officers in their every day dealings. Their observations came together in time to warn militia of the British move on Lexington and Concord.

Make no mistake, the British were collecting intelligence as well. But they faced the same dilemma that occupiers throughout history have faced - whom to trust and how to evaluate the information gathered. In today's parlance - how to tell the "good guys" from the "bad guys." Even worse, how to suppress the insurrectionists without arousing animosity among those on the fence? They never solved the problem.

And what of Paul Revere?

Suppose the British had been able to uncover the role of key individuals, illuminate their relationships and round up the leaders? Could they have done this without overhearing actual conversations or intercepting letters?

Suppose all they had was a list of members of various New England organizations. What could they have learned?

As it turns out, they might have been able to arrest and interrogate the whole conspiracy. One of the keys was Paul Revere.

Last week, Kieran Healey, a Duke University Sociologist, posted a very interesting examination of how the British might have been able to use what is now called "metadata" to catch Paul Revere.  Metadata is apparently what NSA is collecting from Google, Verizon and other sources. Here is his post.

Here is a more detailed article on Paul Revere's ride by political scientist Shin-Kap Han. The metadata in both articles is drawn from David Hackett Fisher's book, Paul Revere's Ride. Another of David Hackett Fisher's books, Washington's Crossing, gives a good feel for the effectiveness of Washington's intelligence networks during the campaign in New Jersey and the increasing frustration of British intelligence.

All of this preceded the U.S. Constitution.

Even the central trade offs between liberty and security - a dilemma of the present age, was apparent before the Constitution:

They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

Benjamin Franklin, 1775


Sunday, June 9, 2013

How To Have Economic Prosperity: Advice From Venture Capitalist

Nick Hanauer, wealthy venture capitalist, has been advising the country for the past few years how to become more prosperous: put more money in the hands of consumers. He recently repeated his advice at a Senate hearing. Here is his testimony. It is worth reading the entire presentation.

In some respects, Hanauer's explanation isn't much different from Henry Ford's insight when he paid his factory workers higher than the going wage. If his workers couldn't afford to buy his product, Ford realized, then his own enterprise wouldn't prosper. The super wealthy keep forgetting that insight.

Hanauer gets it right

"When someone like me calls himself a job creator, it sounds like we are describing how the economy works. What we are actually doing is making a claim on status, power and privileges.The extraordinary differential between the 15-20% tax rate on capital gains, dividends, and carried interest for capitalists, and the 39% top marginal rate on work for ordinary Americans is just one of those privileges.
We’ve had it backward for the last 30 years. Rich businesspeople like me don’t create jobs. Rather, jobs are a consequence of an ecosystemic feedback loop animated by middle- class consumers, and when they thrive, businesses grow and hire, and owners profit in a virtuous cycle of increasing returns that benefits everyone."

Saturday, June 8, 2013

On Knowledge

People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.
— Isaac Asimov


Thursday, June 6, 2013

D-Day

Just a reminder that sixty-nine years ago today, Allied troops stormed ashore on the landing beaches of Normandy, establishing a beachhead in France. Less than a year later, Germany surrendered. The United States was at war with Germany about three and a half years from declaration of war to surrender.

Al Gore And The Internet

In the 1980's I was in the computer industry, owning a small information technology company with a very small Defense contract. We communicated with other contractors and research centers using e-mail, long before the internet. We communicated over a network developed for Defense, known as Arpanet.

I became aware that a technically savvy member of Congress, one of the so-called "Atari Democrats," was pressing to open up this network for public, even commercial use. This was opposed by most Arpanet users in the research business. But the Atari Democrat in question kept pressing. That person was Al Gore. He eventually got his way.

I just came across an article here that gives a more complete story of Al Gore's role.

No, Al Gore didn't discover Global Warming, either. Scientists did that. Al Gore just let the rest of us know about it and described what needs to be done.

That's what leaders do.

Man With A Beard And Glasses

Have you heard the one about the stranger who came to the Town of Oriental looking for advice? He was looking for a particular sage experienced in boating. He came to the Bean to inquire of the regulars. "Joe?" The regular asked, just to pin the questioner down. "No problem. He's the old guy with glasses and a beard."

The stranger soon found out the description matches half the male population of Oriental.

Now suppose you are looking for an economist. Here's the account of that search.