Capabilities Vs Intentions And South Avenue

In matters of military intelligence, a common admonition is that evaluation should be based on capabilities rather than intentions. For example, rather than guess that in late 1941 Japan would attack in southeast Asia, we should have known that they had the capability of attacking Hawaii and prepared for it.

I have a problem with that concept. At least in the short run, the only thing that matters is intentions. We assumed, for example, that Great Britain had no intention to attack the United States, though they had the capability. Same with France. So we wasted no time and resources planning to defend against their forces.

We focused our intelligence gathering on countries that might plausibly become enemies. And we did our best to find out the specific intentions.

After the attack on Pearl Harbor, we succeeded beyond expectations at uncovering specific plans, schedules, order of battle, and other details. And we used the information. That's why our forces were in the right position to succeed at Coral Sea and Midway. It helped us track down German submarines. It helped win the Battle of Britain.

In some contexts, though, it makes sense to focus on capabilities rather than intentions. Intentions change. When planning for the future and developing policies, it makes sense to focus more on what CAN be done rather than what WILL be done.

This is especially so when developing public policy.

When writing laws, drafting regulations, putting policies in place, it does not matter what the present intentions of office holders may be. Elections may change who is in office. In this context it makes no sense to ask how incumbents plan to use their authority.

My advice: always assume that if law and regulation allow something to be done, then at some point it will be done.

That's why I oppose Oriental's effort to exchange the South Avenue right of way which can't be sold for a waterfront parcel owned in fee simple which can be sold. Assume that if it can be sold, at some point it will be sold. Once the waterfront is in private hands, the public will never get it back.

So the public's interest in any such acquisition must  be protected.

Yes, I want to tie the hands of future town boards.