Not exactly. It turns out most new jobs are created by large firms (500+ employees). But as economist Jared Bernstein explains, some data series refer to the size of "establishments" which might be the local outlet for a large business, and some refer to "firms," in which employees of the local outlet would be included in the larger entity. Think, for example, Wal-Mart.
Bernstein explains: "So, the question is, do any of these size classes contribute
disproportionately to job growth? In fact, they do, and the winner is…not small firms.
Whether is business cycle expansions or the full run of these data,
large firms — 500+ employees — contribute disproportionately to job
growth. The small firms — less than 50 workers — in fact, contribute
proportionately less than their share."
Neither Bernstein nor I have anything against small businesses, we just want the discussion and any resulting policy to reflect reality.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Government Austerity At The Present Time: Bad Idea
Economist Mark Thoma provides a link to an interesting posting by Simon Wren-Lewis once again refuting arguments by the Austerians. The key passage:
"....let’s just go through the economics one more time. Macroeconomic theory is as clear as it can be that austerity in the current situation will reduce output and raise unemployment. ... The evidence is also about as clear as it ever is in macro."
Wren-Lewis offers another thought as well. Worth reading.
"....let’s just go through the economics one more time. Macroeconomic theory is as clear as it can be that austerity in the current situation will reduce output and raise unemployment. ... The evidence is also about as clear as it ever is in macro."
Wren-Lewis offers another thought as well. Worth reading.
Capabilities Vs Intentions And South Avenue
In matters of military intelligence, a common admonition is that evaluation should be based on capabilities rather than intentions. For example, rather than guess that in late 1941 Japan would attack in southeast Asia, we should have known that they had the capability of attacking Hawaii and prepared for it.
I have a problem with that concept. At least in the short run, the only thing that matters is intentions. We assumed, for example, that Great Britain had no intention to attack the United States, though they had the capability. Same with France. So we wasted no time and resources planning to defend against their forces.
We focused our intelligence gathering on countries that might plausibly become enemies. And we did our best to find out the specific intentions.
After the attack on Pearl Harbor, we succeeded beyond expectations at uncovering specific plans, schedules, order of battle, and other details. And we used the information. That's why our forces were in the right position to succeed at Coral Sea and Midway. It helped us track down German submarines. It helped win the Battle of Britain.
In some contexts, though, it makes sense to focus on capabilities rather than intentions. Intentions change. When planning for the future and developing policies, it makes sense to focus more on what CAN be done rather than what WILL be done.
This is especially so when developing public policy.
When writing laws, drafting regulations, putting policies in place, it does not matter what the present intentions of office holders may be. Elections may change who is in office. In this context it makes no sense to ask how incumbents plan to use their authority.
My advice: always assume that if law and regulation allow something to be done, then at some point it will be done.
That's why I oppose Oriental's effort to exchange the South Avenue right of way which can't be sold for a waterfront parcel owned in fee simple which can be sold. Assume that if it can be sold, at some point it will be sold. Once the waterfront is in private hands, the public will never get it back.
So the public's interest in any such acquisition must be protected.
Yes, I want to tie the hands of future town boards.
I have a problem with that concept. At least in the short run, the only thing that matters is intentions. We assumed, for example, that Great Britain had no intention to attack the United States, though they had the capability. Same with France. So we wasted no time and resources planning to defend against their forces.
We focused our intelligence gathering on countries that might plausibly become enemies. And we did our best to find out the specific intentions.
After the attack on Pearl Harbor, we succeeded beyond expectations at uncovering specific plans, schedules, order of battle, and other details. And we used the information. That's why our forces were in the right position to succeed at Coral Sea and Midway. It helped us track down German submarines. It helped win the Battle of Britain.
In some contexts, though, it makes sense to focus on capabilities rather than intentions. Intentions change. When planning for the future and developing policies, it makes sense to focus more on what CAN be done rather than what WILL be done.
This is especially so when developing public policy.
When writing laws, drafting regulations, putting policies in place, it does not matter what the present intentions of office holders may be. Elections may change who is in office. In this context it makes no sense to ask how incumbents plan to use their authority.
My advice: always assume that if law and regulation allow something to be done, then at some point it will be done.
That's why I oppose Oriental's effort to exchange the South Avenue right of way which can't be sold for a waterfront parcel owned in fee simple which can be sold. Assume that if it can be sold, at some point it will be sold. Once the waterfront is in private hands, the public will never get it back.
So the public's interest in any such acquisition must be protected.
Yes, I want to tie the hands of future town boards.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Dump The Runoff II
Two years ago I suggested that NC should join 42 other states in the union and abolish the runoff primary. I haven't changed my mind.
Some reasons:
a. Runoff primaries are expensive. They cost nearly as much to administer as a regular primary, nearly doubling the cost to taxpayers of administering the party nomination process (which is what the primary is);
b. Turnout is abysmal. In Pamlico County, turnout for this year's second primary was three percent of registered voters; across the state it was three and a half percent;
c. Runoff primaries are a holdover from the time when southern states had only one effective political party - the Democratic party, and whoever won the primary had won the election. That is no longer the case;
d. Runoff primaries seldom change the outcome - the leader after round one usually wins, anyhow;
e. A runoff primary delays the election process - results aren't final until after canvass. This year, County Boards will canvass on July 24 and State Board a week after that, delaying the start of down-ballot campaigns;
f. It isn't more democratic to have a tiny fraction of the electorate determine the outcome.
One way to accomplish the same purpose as a runoff is to hold some sort of instant runoff vote by ranking voter choices. We tried that for a judicial race two years ago. Voters found it confusing, our voting machines aren't certified for such a procedure, and the state board had to develop a work around.
Other states just award the nomination to the candidate with the most votes on primary day. Simple and effective.
While we are on the subject of primaries, I have also concluded it is inappropriate to vote on ballot measures during a primary. Ballot measures should be voted on at a general or municipal election, not an election designed for nominating party candidates.
Some reasons:
a. Runoff primaries are expensive. They cost nearly as much to administer as a regular primary, nearly doubling the cost to taxpayers of administering the party nomination process (which is what the primary is);
b. Turnout is abysmal. In Pamlico County, turnout for this year's second primary was three percent of registered voters; across the state it was three and a half percent;
c. Runoff primaries are a holdover from the time when southern states had only one effective political party - the Democratic party, and whoever won the primary had won the election. That is no longer the case;
d. Runoff primaries seldom change the outcome - the leader after round one usually wins, anyhow;
e. A runoff primary delays the election process - results aren't final until after canvass. This year, County Boards will canvass on July 24 and State Board a week after that, delaying the start of down-ballot campaigns;
f. It isn't more democratic to have a tiny fraction of the electorate determine the outcome.
One way to accomplish the same purpose as a runoff is to hold some sort of instant runoff vote by ranking voter choices. We tried that for a judicial race two years ago. Voters found it confusing, our voting machines aren't certified for such a procedure, and the state board had to develop a work around.
Other states just award the nomination to the candidate with the most votes on primary day. Simple and effective.
While we are on the subject of primaries, I have also concluded it is inappropriate to vote on ballot measures during a primary. Ballot measures should be voted on at a general or municipal election, not an election designed for nominating party candidates.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Second Primary Results
All across Pamlico County, alarms went off at what military veterans refer to as "Oh Dark Hundred," meaning very early in the morning. No sign of dawn.
Election officials: Chief Judges, Judges, Director of Elections, Board of Elections and other officials washed their faces, dressed, ate a quick bite and found their way to their respective assignments at Pamlico County's ten voting precincts.
They turned on the voting machines, posted the required signs, made final arrangements of chairs, tables and other equipment, and at 0630 Monday, July 17, 2012, one of the judges opened the front door and announced: "the polls are now open."
At Oriental precinct, the announcement was heard by two voters already waiting outside to cast their ballots. At other precincts, the announcement was heard only by a passing mockingbird or cardinal.
The occasion: phase two of the party nomination primary election of May 8. In a handful of races, no candidate received 40% of the votes cast. In those cases, a second or runoff primary must be held.
The runoff has now been held and all nominees for the November general election have now been chosen. Here are the results.
Three percent of Pamlico County's registered voters cast ballots.
Election officials: Chief Judges, Judges, Director of Elections, Board of Elections and other officials washed their faces, dressed, ate a quick bite and found their way to their respective assignments at Pamlico County's ten voting precincts.
They turned on the voting machines, posted the required signs, made final arrangements of chairs, tables and other equipment, and at 0630 Monday, July 17, 2012, one of the judges opened the front door and announced: "the polls are now open."
At Oriental precinct, the announcement was heard by two voters already waiting outside to cast their ballots. At other precincts, the announcement was heard only by a passing mockingbird or cardinal.
The occasion: phase two of the party nomination primary election of May 8. In a handful of races, no candidate received 40% of the votes cast. In those cases, a second or runoff primary must be held.
The runoff has now been held and all nominees for the November general election have now been chosen. Here are the results.
Three percent of Pamlico County's registered voters cast ballots.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Second Primary
Tuesday, July 17, 2012, is the second or runoff primary.
Polls open at 06:30 and close at 7:30 PM.
Don't forget to vote.
Polls open at 06:30 and close at 7:30 PM.
Don't forget to vote.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Booker Wright: Greenwood, Mississippi 1965
Meet Booker Wright. He was filmed for a documentary in 1965 by a white movie maker trying to present Mississippi's story from the point of view of Mississippi's whites. The movie maker thought to interview a waiter at a popular white restaurant in Greenwood, Mississippi. The waiter's name was Booker Wright and the movie maker got more than he bargained for. Here is the clip of what Booker Wright said.
The interview of Booker Wright was shown on NBCTV in May of 1966. Mr. Wright was beaten, lost his job and lost his business. But he apparently never regretted what he said.
I know Mississippi. I was three when I first visited the state in August, 1940. I started to school in the first grade in Greenwood, Mississippi in 1943. The summer before first grade, I had a vivid lesson in the fact that black people didn't like how they were treated by white people.
To white people who grew up in the state, though, this was unwelcome news. So unwelcome, they refused to believe it.
A decade before the film was made, fifteen year old Emmett Till was lynched in Money, Mississippi, not far from Greenwood. I was a student at the University of Mississippi at the time.
Many fine people have grown up in Mississippi. Most of them left it.
I don't know anyone who lived in Mississippi in the 1930's. 40's, 50's and 60's who wasn't bent.
Some have overcome the experience.
The interview of Booker Wright was shown on NBCTV in May of 1966. Mr. Wright was beaten, lost his job and lost his business. But he apparently never regretted what he said.
I know Mississippi. I was three when I first visited the state in August, 1940. I started to school in the first grade in Greenwood, Mississippi in 1943. The summer before first grade, I had a vivid lesson in the fact that black people didn't like how they were treated by white people.
To white people who grew up in the state, though, this was unwelcome news. So unwelcome, they refused to believe it.
A decade before the film was made, fifteen year old Emmett Till was lynched in Money, Mississippi, not far from Greenwood. I was a student at the University of Mississippi at the time.
Many fine people have grown up in Mississippi. Most of them left it.
I don't know anyone who lived in Mississippi in the 1930's. 40's, 50's and 60's who wasn't bent.
Some have overcome the experience.
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