Graduation Season and Job Prospects

I'm on the road this week and next week for graduation season. It's inspiring to see the shining, expectant faces of new graduates ready to take on the world.

But what if the world isn't ready for them?

I've been concerned for some time about the effects of increasingly sophisticated automation on top of offshore outsourcing on job prospects for Americans. Not long ago, I called attention to data showing the present recession has hollowed out jobs in the economy formerly filled by our great but diminishing middle class.

Is this a temporary phenomenon caused by the present recession? Or is it something more permanent - a structural change affecting everyone's future.

Right now, I think our economy is being made worse by austerity measures being pushed by [can I call them fools?] in the capitols of the world. But what of the future? We are said to be in a recovery. But statistics seem to show that the percentage of Americans who are employed is at a historic low, and newly created jobs aren't appearing quickly enough to increase that percentage.

I just came across a sobering blog discussion of the long term effect of automation here. The author criticizes my two favorite macroeconomists for failing to address this problem.

I think it is a fair criticism.

I played a modest role about twenty-five years ago in a project intended to replace skilled technicians with an artificial intelligence program aboard US Navy ships. It had great potential to reduce the education and training required for maintenance technicians.

Next week I will travel to the graduation ceremony for our oldest grandchild at one of America's finest Universities. I worry that the kind of development I worked on years ago may affect his prospects and those of his younger brother.

The issue of how we can make a prosperous future for our descendants in the face of these rapid technological developments needs the urgent attention of our best economists.

Did the Luddites have a point?