Brad DeLong posts a comment by economist Evan Soltas from this week's conference of economic bloggers.
Soltas bemoans the fact that politicians extol anecdotes, often untrue anecdotes, in preference to data. He is right, but there may be no way to fix the problem.
Humans seem favorably disposed to storytelling. In every sense of the word. Many, if not most, on the other hand, have difficulty getting their head around statistics. Even when the statistics are graphically displayed.
Not even Presidential Candidate Ross Perot succeeded in combining the two skills.
Unfortunately, skill with anecdote leads to bad policy.
As we used to say in the Pentagon: "figures don't lie, but liars figure." Even worse, if a problem can't be described by anecdote, it all too often isn't addressed at all.
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Friday, April 12, 2013
My Great Grandfather Rode With Billy The Kid*
My grandparents never told me about my Great Grandfather. What little I know I have had to dig out from scattered records and stories passed down through other branches of the family.
His name was John Scroggins. He was born in Georgia in 1852. In 1872 he travelled to St. Louis and enlisted in the U.S. Cavalry. He served in the 4th Cavalry Regiment, mostly in Texas. He was in the Regiment during the epic raid into Mexico fictionalized in John Ford's movie Rio Grande, starring John Wayne. After the Battle of Little Big Horn in 1876, the Regiment went north to round up Chief Dull Knife's band of Cheyenne warriors in late 1876. He was discharged in 1877.
The next appearance of John Scroggins in available records was in the census of 1880. He and his wife Kate (Wampler) Scroggins were living in Palo Pinto County, Texas with two small children, next door to John's father in law, Roderick Wampler, who was also working on the railroad.
So what happened between 1877 and 1880?
It turns out that on April 4, 1878, John Scroggins rode into Blazer's Mill, New Mexico, with Billy the Kid and a large posse (the Regulators) seeking the assassins of John Tunstall. Not long after the shootout at Blazer's Mill, John Scroggins disappeared from New Mexico.
In Texas, he is said to have worked as an Indian Scout, disappearing for months at a time and on one occasion turning up with an Indian woman and a small child. The woman died and is supposed to have been buried outside the fence of the cemetery in Strawn, Texas. He and his wife had about thirteen children, ran a store for miners at nearby Thurber, Texas and eventually a rooming house in Mineral Wells.
John Scroggins is said by some descendents to have been a hard drinker and a gambler, allegedly drinking up much of the family's profits.
In other words, a typical westerner of the day.
My grandfather, Valentine Scroggins (named for a maternal uncle and a maternal great grandfather) was born in Palo Pinto County April 2, 1886, eight years almost to the day after the shootout at Blazer's Mill.
*Maybe. It fits. So far I can't disprove it.
His name was John Scroggins. He was born in Georgia in 1852. In 1872 he travelled to St. Louis and enlisted in the U.S. Cavalry. He served in the 4th Cavalry Regiment, mostly in Texas. He was in the Regiment during the epic raid into Mexico fictionalized in John Ford's movie Rio Grande, starring John Wayne. After the Battle of Little Big Horn in 1876, the Regiment went north to round up Chief Dull Knife's band of Cheyenne warriors in late 1876. He was discharged in 1877.
The next appearance of John Scroggins in available records was in the census of 1880. He and his wife Kate (Wampler) Scroggins were living in Palo Pinto County, Texas with two small children, next door to John's father in law, Roderick Wampler, who was also working on the railroad.
So what happened between 1877 and 1880?
It turns out that on April 4, 1878, John Scroggins rode into Blazer's Mill, New Mexico, with Billy the Kid and a large posse (the Regulators) seeking the assassins of John Tunstall. Not long after the shootout at Blazer's Mill, John Scroggins disappeared from New Mexico.
In Texas, he is said to have worked as an Indian Scout, disappearing for months at a time and on one occasion turning up with an Indian woman and a small child. The woman died and is supposed to have been buried outside the fence of the cemetery in Strawn, Texas. He and his wife had about thirteen children, ran a store for miners at nearby Thurber, Texas and eventually a rooming house in Mineral Wells.
John Scroggins is said by some descendents to have been a hard drinker and a gambler, allegedly drinking up much of the family's profits.
In other words, a typical westerner of the day.
My grandfather, Valentine Scroggins (named for a maternal uncle and a maternal great grandfather) was born in Palo Pinto County April 2, 1886, eight years almost to the day after the shootout at Blazer's Mill.
*Maybe. It fits. So far I can't disprove it.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
News from Goldman Sachs: Federal Deficit Rapidly Shrinking
It turns out that on a twelve-month average basis, federal outlays in nominal (constant) dollars have fallen for the first time since rapid demobilization after the Korean War. Here's the story.
Bottom line: there is no federal debt crisis. There is still a jobs crisis.
Our political leadership continues to worry about the wrong thing.
By the way, putting people back to work will bring the deficit down even further and faster.
Bottom line: there is no federal debt crisis. There is still a jobs crisis.
Our political leadership continues to worry about the wrong thing.
By the way, putting people back to work will bring the deficit down even further and faster.
Speaking Of Elections: Hayes - Tilden 1876
Economic historian Brad DeLong has raised another interesting question: "why did the Republicans in 1876 abandon their most reliable supporters in the South (African Americans) for small gains that put Benjamin Hayes in the White House?" The negotiated outcome of this, one of the most contentious elections in US history, ended any effective Federal oversight of the South for nearly a century.
Another historian provides a plausible answer.
It remained for Lyndon Johnson to undo the Republican capitulation of 1876. The Republican Party then promptly recruited Southern racists to their own cause.
Another historian provides a plausible answer.
It remained for Lyndon Johnson to undo the Republican capitulation of 1876. The Republican Party then promptly recruited Southern racists to their own cause.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
As Mississippi Goes, So Goes...
When Haley Barbour of Yazoo City, Mississippi (where my father was born in 1915 and my brother in 1941) was appointed Chair of the Republican National Committee in 1993, astonished journalists asked how this came about. Haley Barbour replied that "the rest of the country is following in Mississippi's footsteps," or words to that effect.
Oriental resident (or former resident gone cruising) Tony Tharp, calls attention today to an article in the Jackson Clarion Ledger blog site describing just where those footsteps lead. Tony, a native son of the Mississippi Delta (near Leland, MS along US Highway 82), often reflects on past and current developments in the state.
Oriental resident (or former resident gone cruising) Tony Tharp, calls attention today to an article in the Jackson Clarion Ledger blog site describing just where those footsteps lead. Tony, a native son of the Mississippi Delta (near Leland, MS along US Highway 82), often reflects on past and current developments in the state.
North Carolina Election Law
The North Carolina General Assembly is considering more than sixty bills that would change the way elections are conducted in the state, plus more than a dozen measures that would call for constitutional amendment votes in 2014.
One of the most consequential bills for Pamlico County is House Bill 607, which passed the House on April 9. This bill decrees the use of paper ballots in all elections in North Carolina. If adopted, it will abolish the use of the Ivotronics Direct Record Election (DRE) touch-screen machines in use in Pamlico County since 2006.
The bill requires that these machines no longer be used for elections beginning January 1, 2014. In other words, we would have to replace the machines in time for the next Congressional election, including the primary election, about a year from now.
That's a tall order, and an expensive one.
In Pamlico County, we like our Ivotronics machines. But they will need to be replaced in three to five years, whether HB 607 becomes law or not. Technology marches on and parts are no longer being made.
Still, DRE machines have advantages.
One of the most consequential bills for Pamlico County is House Bill 607, which passed the House on April 9. This bill decrees the use of paper ballots in all elections in North Carolina. If adopted, it will abolish the use of the Ivotronics Direct Record Election (DRE) touch-screen machines in use in Pamlico County since 2006.
The bill requires that these machines no longer be used for elections beginning January 1, 2014. In other words, we would have to replace the machines in time for the next Congressional election, including the primary election, about a year from now.
That's a tall order, and an expensive one.
In Pamlico County, we like our Ivotronics machines. But they will need to be replaced in three to five years, whether HB 607 becomes law or not. Technology marches on and parts are no longer being made.
Still, DRE machines have advantages.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Training For Election Officials
Training for North Carolina election officials ended early this afternoon in Concord.
Some of the training was done by experts brought in from the world of education and training to improve our ability to prepare precinct officials to insure effective elections. The morning's expert, after enlightening us on the techniques of Andragogy (you can look it up), admitted that she had learned a lot. "I vote," she said. "I walk up to the scanner with my paper ballot, put it in the slot, and it says "whoosh.'"
"I had no idea until this week," she admitted, "what goes on behind the scenes. Thank you all for what you do."
I will have more to say after I study the election bills submitted to the General Assembly. Some have already been passed. Many of the bills seem based on what some legislators imagine goes on behind the scenes rather than actual knowledge.
The pending bill I most strongly support is H38. If adopted, it will eliminate second primaries. Good idea.
Some of the training was done by experts brought in from the world of education and training to improve our ability to prepare precinct officials to insure effective elections. The morning's expert, after enlightening us on the techniques of Andragogy (you can look it up), admitted that she had learned a lot. "I vote," she said. "I walk up to the scanner with my paper ballot, put it in the slot, and it says "whoosh.'"
"I had no idea until this week," she admitted, "what goes on behind the scenes. Thank you all for what you do."
I will have more to say after I study the election bills submitted to the General Assembly. Some have already been passed. Many of the bills seem based on what some legislators imagine goes on behind the scenes rather than actual knowledge.
The pending bill I most strongly support is H38. If adopted, it will eliminate second primaries. Good idea.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Who Are The Tyrants?
Churchill saw Tyranny as the foe.
So who were the tyrants?
Economic historian Brad DeLong has a very interesting blog post today on the history of Tyrants, especially twentieth century tyrants.
His essay is worth reading. Just as worthy of attention are the many well-argued comments others have posted taking exception to or modifying many of the points DeLong makes.
So who were the tyrants?
Economic historian Brad DeLong has a very interesting blog post today on the history of Tyrants, especially twentieth century tyrants.
His essay is worth reading. Just as worthy of attention are the many well-argued comments others have posted taking exception to or modifying many of the points DeLong makes.
Churchill: "Tyranny Is Our Foe"
In 1943, Winston Churchill was awarded an honorary degree by Harvard University. Churchill spoke at the ceremony, emphasizing the importance of a common effort by English-speaking peoples because of their shared traditions of freedom.
"We do not war," he said, "with races....Tyranny is our foe, whatever trappings or disguise it wears, whatever language it speaks, be it external or internal, we must forever be on our guard, ever mobilized, ever vigilant, always ready to spring at its throat. Not only do we march and strive shoulder to shoulder at this moment under the fire of the enemy on the fields of war or in the air, but also in those realms of thought which are consecrated to the rights and dignity of man."
Let us not forget.
"We do not war," he said, "with races....Tyranny is our foe, whatever trappings or disguise it wears, whatever language it speaks, be it external or internal, we must forever be on our guard, ever mobilized, ever vigilant, always ready to spring at its throat. Not only do we march and strive shoulder to shoulder at this moment under the fire of the enemy on the fields of war or in the air, but also in those realms of thought which are consecrated to the rights and dignity of man."
Let us not forget.
Friday, April 5, 2013
North Carolina Legislature
I first visited North Carolina in 1955. I was a student at the University of Mississippi. A year earlier, in Greenwood, Mississippi, the town where I started to school in the first grade in 1943, a prominent local citizen started the White Citizen's Council.
North Carolina was a very different place. It stood out as a southern oasis. North Carolina had men and women of vision. A manifestation of that vision was the election of Terry Sanford as governor in 1960.
I was happy to move here after I retired. Decent people. Progressive initiatives like the Research Triangle. Fine institutions of higher education. University of North Carolina. Duke. A fine community College System. Sailors. Good public schools. Efforts to improve the environment. One of the best election systems in the nation. Thoughtful public officials dedicated to making the state an even better place to live.
Earlier this evening, I watched the weekly legislative summary on public television. I had already read some of the bills introduced in the state legislature. What I heard and read brings back recollections of Mississippi in the 1940's and 1950's.
That isn't where North Carolina needs to go.
North Carolina was a very different place. It stood out as a southern oasis. North Carolina had men and women of vision. A manifestation of that vision was the election of Terry Sanford as governor in 1960.
I was happy to move here after I retired. Decent people. Progressive initiatives like the Research Triangle. Fine institutions of higher education. University of North Carolina. Duke. A fine community College System. Sailors. Good public schools. Efforts to improve the environment. One of the best election systems in the nation. Thoughtful public officials dedicated to making the state an even better place to live.
Earlier this evening, I watched the weekly legislative summary on public television. I had already read some of the bills introduced in the state legislature. What I heard and read brings back recollections of Mississippi in the 1940's and 1950's.
That isn't where North Carolina needs to go.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Courtesy And Respect Are Never Out Of Order
Just observing. Respect should be a two way street. But elected officials especially need to respect the input from citizens. They might learn something.
As for "negativity," when citizens ask elected officials for answers, it seems pretty negative to ignore their queries and refuse to respond in public. It is elected officials who answer to the citizens, not the other way around. Witness last night's Town Board meeting as reported (so far) by Town Dock:
"7:26a The Town Board voted 4-0 last night to give up South Avenue at the harbor in the land swap with Chris Fulcher. It had already given up Avenue A in the swap last summer. More on that coming. (In the meantime, see posting from last night – scroll below)
"Also at the meeting, The Board okayed Town Manager Bob Maxbauer’s request to shift $65,000 from the Town’s General Fund (rainy day fund) to fill a budget gap while the Town waits for Hurricane Irene money to come through.
Commissioner Warren Johnson tried to prevent Maxbauer from hiring a third police officer until at least the new fiscal year in July. That failed on a 3-2 vote in which the Mayor broke a tie. Meanwhile, Maxbauer revealed that the part time cop hired in February may be working more than half of his full-time hours in Public Works where his “skills” are needed. No mention of the total numbers of people working in Public Works, a question that Commissioner Johnson posed at the agenda meeting 5 days earlier. Also, it was revealed that about $9,000 was spent on “tools” in February.
More than a half dozen residents used the Public Comment session at the beginning of the meeting to, among other things: question the land swap; claim Maxbauer was recklessly spending money; and suggest a Q&A session between the public and the Board. A short time later, one of the attorneys working for the Town, Clark Wright, criticized what he said was “negativity” and said that people should instead focus on “positive attributes” and “talk about what they love” about the Town. A fuller report of the meeting is coming…"
What I love about Oriental is that it has citizens who will stand up and speak up. That is our most positive attribute. Down with passivity!
As for "negativity," when citizens ask elected officials for answers, it seems pretty negative to ignore their queries and refuse to respond in public. It is elected officials who answer to the citizens, not the other way around. Witness last night's Town Board meeting as reported (so far) by Town Dock:
"7:26a The Town Board voted 4-0 last night to give up South Avenue at the harbor in the land swap with Chris Fulcher. It had already given up Avenue A in the swap last summer. More on that coming. (In the meantime, see posting from last night – scroll below)
"Also at the meeting, The Board okayed Town Manager Bob Maxbauer’s request to shift $65,000 from the Town’s General Fund (rainy day fund) to fill a budget gap while the Town waits for Hurricane Irene money to come through.
Commissioner Warren Johnson tried to prevent Maxbauer from hiring a third police officer until at least the new fiscal year in July. That failed on a 3-2 vote in which the Mayor broke a tie. Meanwhile, Maxbauer revealed that the part time cop hired in February may be working more than half of his full-time hours in Public Works where his “skills” are needed. No mention of the total numbers of people working in Public Works, a question that Commissioner Johnson posed at the agenda meeting 5 days earlier. Also, it was revealed that about $9,000 was spent on “tools” in February.
More than a half dozen residents used the Public Comment session at the beginning of the meeting to, among other things: question the land swap; claim Maxbauer was recklessly spending money; and suggest a Q&A session between the public and the Board. A short time later, one of the attorneys working for the Town, Clark Wright, criticized what he said was “negativity” and said that people should instead focus on “positive attributes” and “talk about what they love” about the Town. A fuller report of the meeting is coming…"
What I love about Oriental is that it has citizens who will stand up and speak up. That is our most positive attribute. Down with passivity!
Saturday, March 30, 2013
North Carolina Municipal Elections
Although North Carolina Municipal elections are not held until November, candidates seeking to be on the ballot for municipal elections must file in July. Candidates must file no sooner than noon on the first Friday in July (July 5 this year) and no later than noon on July 9.
Seventy Years Ago: Wartime Rationing
I have written before about rationing. It pervaded our lives during World War II and it involved an enormous organization to plan and control the economy to insure a successful war effort. The "magic of the marketplace" wasn't up to the task.
Economist Brad DeLong provides a link to a detailed explanation of how it worked. World War II truly mobilized all of our national assets.
Was this trip necessary? Yes it was.
On a personal note, I was ten years old before I learned to ride a bicycle. They weren't available during the war. When bicycles came back on the market in 1947, my grandfather bought one and drove 125 miles from Tulsa to Oklahoma City to deliver it on my tenth birthday.
Economist Brad DeLong provides a link to a detailed explanation of how it worked. World War II truly mobilized all of our national assets.
Was this trip necessary? Yes it was.
On a personal note, I was ten years old before I learned to ride a bicycle. They weren't available during the war. When bicycles came back on the market in 1947, my grandfather bought one and drove 125 miles from Tulsa to Oklahoma City to deliver it on my tenth birthday.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
No, The Judge's Ruling in Cox v. Town of Oriental Hasn't Been Entered
Those of you who checked today to see what the Town's agenda is for next week may be wondering. Has the Judge in the case of Cox v. Town of Oriental entered his order? Not yet.
After he enters the order, the plaintiff has a window of 30 days to file a notice of appeal. That sets in motion a process that could last 10 months or more.
What about the "exchange" the Town plans?
Who knows? That might cause a second suit.
After he enters the order, the plaintiff has a window of 30 days to file a notice of appeal. That sets in motion a process that could last 10 months or more.
What about the "exchange" the Town plans?
Who knows? That might cause a second suit.
Seventy Years Ago: Battle Of Komandorski Islands
Did you ever hear about the Battle of Komandorski Islands? In brief, March 26 1943, RADM "Sock" McMorris took his task group out west of the Aleutian Islands to intercept a Japanese force enroute to reinforce the Japanese garrison on the island of Attu. It turned out the Japanese force was about twice as strong as McMorris' force.
The Americans got their noses bloodied, but they held off the Japanese force, who returned home without reinforcing Attu.
Here's a more complete account.
Just imagine fighting a battle that close to the Arctic.
The Americans got their noses bloodied, but they held off the Japanese force, who returned home without reinforcing Attu.
Here's a more complete account.
Just imagine fighting a battle that close to the Arctic.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Senate Bill 58 - Boat Registration Fees
A few days ago I posted an item on Senate Bill 58, cosponsored by State Senator Norm Sanderson. The bill will vastly increase boat registration fees in North Carolina.
The bill raises questions about just what is meant by representation in a democracy. In a different context, Senator Sanderson has explained that he "represents all of the people of North Carolina." I think that constitutes a misunderstanding of "representation." It may be true that Sanderson is paid by the people of North Carolina. In that sense, he works for them. But he represents the voters of his senate district, who elected him to this office, whether they voted for him or against him.
Oriental resident Jim Barton has published an eloquent letter to Senator Sanderson raising a number of good questions about Senate Bill 58. Captain Barton, who has also spoken in opposition to ferry tolls for our commuter ferries, is a Republican who voted for Sanderson. But his comment is pointed: "We want a State Senator who, in fact, represents our interests and communicates with his constituency." He urges the Senator to communicate more clearly with his constituents.
The bill raises questions about just what is meant by representation in a democracy. In a different context, Senator Sanderson has explained that he "represents all of the people of North Carolina." I think that constitutes a misunderstanding of "representation." It may be true that Sanderson is paid by the people of North Carolina. In that sense, he works for them. But he represents the voters of his senate district, who elected him to this office, whether they voted for him or against him.
Oriental resident Jim Barton has published an eloquent letter to Senator Sanderson raising a number of good questions about Senate Bill 58. Captain Barton, who has also spoken in opposition to ferry tolls for our commuter ferries, is a Republican who voted for Sanderson. But his comment is pointed: "We want a State Senator who, in fact, represents our interests and communicates with his constituency." He urges the Senator to communicate more clearly with his constituents.
What's Happening In The States?
A good article in today's New York Times by columnist Bill Keller examines how it comes about that there is such a wide variation in laws passed recently by state legislatures. Equally puzzling is the national gridlock in the Congress.
Keller describes a number of alternate explanations offered by political scientists. I find one explanation is probably the most accurate: political outcomes are determined by an activist elite of about 15 percent of the populace, combined with a largely indifferent public. Or maybe it isn't that the public is indifferent. Maybe it is that they are confused and ill-informed.
How to address that may be the greatest challenge to democracy in today's world.
Keller describes a number of alternate explanations offered by political scientists. I find one explanation is probably the most accurate: political outcomes are determined by an activist elite of about 15 percent of the populace, combined with a largely indifferent public. Or maybe it isn't that the public is indifferent. Maybe it is that they are confused and ill-informed.
How to address that may be the greatest challenge to democracy in today's world.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Affordable Care Act: How Is It Doing So Far?
Good summary in today's New York Times of the accomplishments to date of the Affordable Care Act. Even though the complete law doesn't go into effect until January 1, 2014, many elements have already taken effect.
What has ACA (aka Obamacare) accomplished to date:
1. Nearly 7 million children have stayed on their parents' insurance, more than 3 million previously uninsured;
2. 71 million Americans already received free preventive care (no co-pay or deductibles);
3. 34 million additional Americans on Medicare received free preventive care;
4. 17 million children with pre-existing conditions now insured;
5. 107,000 adults with pre-existing conditions now in federal plan;
6. Community health centers serving 3 million additional Americans;
7. 19 million Americans with reduced premiums or cost sharing;
8. In 2012 insurers paid $ 1.1 billion in rebates because they didn't spend enough revenue on claims or quality improvements;
9. Lower rate increases by insurers;
10. $ 6.1 billion saved on prescription drugs;
11. Sharp declines in annual growth in health care spending;
12. Medicare Advantage premiums down 10% and enrollment up by 28%.
That's just the beginning. Readmissions are down and followup care improved. More improvements are in the offing.
What has ACA (aka Obamacare) accomplished to date:
1. Nearly 7 million children have stayed on their parents' insurance, more than 3 million previously uninsured;
2. 71 million Americans already received free preventive care (no co-pay or deductibles);
3. 34 million additional Americans on Medicare received free preventive care;
4. 17 million children with pre-existing conditions now insured;
5. 107,000 adults with pre-existing conditions now in federal plan;
6. Community health centers serving 3 million additional Americans;
7. 19 million Americans with reduced premiums or cost sharing;
8. In 2012 insurers paid $ 1.1 billion in rebates because they didn't spend enough revenue on claims or quality improvements;
9. Lower rate increases by insurers;
10. $ 6.1 billion saved on prescription drugs;
11. Sharp declines in annual growth in health care spending;
12. Medicare Advantage premiums down 10% and enrollment up by 28%.
That's just the beginning. Readmissions are down and followup care improved. More improvements are in the offing.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Small Wars In US History
Current media attention is focused on the war the United States started with Iraq a decade ago.
I'm reading an interesting book I picked up a couple of weeks ago at the Marine Corps Exchange at Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station: Just and Unjust Wars by Michel Walzer. The book's subtitle is "A Moral Argument With Historical Illustrations."
Just war theory focuses on two aspects of warfare: 1) was there a just cause (as in, was it justified or moral to initiate military action or respond with military action) and: 2) was the war conducted in a just manner.
I would say there is another aspect of war that does not strictly fall under just war theory, but it relates: was the war wise?
In the United States we have a fourth recurring question: was the war constitutional? Specifically, critics of particular wars often claim that the war is not legitimate, because Congress did not declare war as specified in the Constitution.
On this latter point, I recommend reading a really interesting military manual: Small Wars Manual United States Marine Corps 1940. The manual is available here. It is a clearly written guide to planning and conducting small wars in all of their variety.
Just read the introduction and it will be clear that what I have written elsewhere is true. Up to the time of World War II, most of our military interventions were conducted by the Department of the Navy. That included some very substantial military undertakings, including our Quasi-War with France during John Adams' administration. In no case was there ever a declaration of war when the conflict involved only the Navy Department.
Only when the War Department was involved in the conflict did the United States ever declare war. That has happened only five times in our history.
The fine line between conflicts involving only the Navy Department and categorized as "small wars" and the more substantial conflicts involving the War Department disappeared with passage in 1947 of the Armed Forces Unification Act.
That act created a constitutional muddle that we have never resolved.
We would be better off to return to a time when the Navy/Marine Corps team did small wars. They knew how to do it. A number of our military interventions would have been more competently planned and conducted if they had followed the 1940 Small Wars Manual of the Marine Corps.
It would save a lot of money, too.
I'm reading an interesting book I picked up a couple of weeks ago at the Marine Corps Exchange at Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station: Just and Unjust Wars by Michel Walzer. The book's subtitle is "A Moral Argument With Historical Illustrations."
Just war theory focuses on two aspects of warfare: 1) was there a just cause (as in, was it justified or moral to initiate military action or respond with military action) and: 2) was the war conducted in a just manner.
I would say there is another aspect of war that does not strictly fall under just war theory, but it relates: was the war wise?
In the United States we have a fourth recurring question: was the war constitutional? Specifically, critics of particular wars often claim that the war is not legitimate, because Congress did not declare war as specified in the Constitution.
On this latter point, I recommend reading a really interesting military manual: Small Wars Manual United States Marine Corps 1940. The manual is available here. It is a clearly written guide to planning and conducting small wars in all of their variety.
Just read the introduction and it will be clear that what I have written elsewhere is true. Up to the time of World War II, most of our military interventions were conducted by the Department of the Navy. That included some very substantial military undertakings, including our Quasi-War with France during John Adams' administration. In no case was there ever a declaration of war when the conflict involved only the Navy Department.
Only when the War Department was involved in the conflict did the United States ever declare war. That has happened only five times in our history.
The fine line between conflicts involving only the Navy Department and categorized as "small wars" and the more substantial conflicts involving the War Department disappeared with passage in 1947 of the Armed Forces Unification Act.
That act created a constitutional muddle that we have never resolved.
We would be better off to return to a time when the Navy/Marine Corps team did small wars. They knew how to do it. A number of our military interventions would have been more competently planned and conducted if they had followed the 1940 Small Wars Manual of the Marine Corps.
It would save a lot of money, too.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Pope Francis' Family
New information in today's on line edition of The Telegraph (UK).
Information provided by Mrs. Berdoglio, Francis' sole surviving sibling, who lives in Buenos Aires, is that their parents immigrated from Italy to Argentina to escape the fascist regime of Benito Mussolini. Mrs. Bergoglio, a divorced mother of two adult sons, emphasized that stories suggesting her brother's complicity in actions by the Argentine military junta are wide of the mark. Such complicity, she emphasizes, would have been a betrayal of their father's lessons to the family.
The father, Mario Bergoglio, had been a railroad worker in Northern Italy in the Piedmont region before emigrating to Argentina in the 1920's.
Information provided by Mrs. Berdoglio, Francis' sole surviving sibling, who lives in Buenos Aires, is that their parents immigrated from Italy to Argentina to escape the fascist regime of Benito Mussolini. Mrs. Bergoglio, a divorced mother of two adult sons, emphasized that stories suggesting her brother's complicity in actions by the Argentine military junta are wide of the mark. Such complicity, she emphasizes, would have been a betrayal of their father's lessons to the family.
The father, Mario Bergoglio, had been a railroad worker in Northern Italy in the Piedmont region before emigrating to Argentina in the 1920's.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Pamlico County Commissioners March 18, 2013
Last night's County Commissioner meeting dealt mostly with the County Planning Board's draft ordinance covering possible wind farms. They scheduled a public hearing April 1 by a vote of 4-1 (Chris Mele against) with two absentees (Pat Prescott and Carl Ollison).
The draft ordinance has not yet been posted on line.
The draft ordinance has not yet been posted on line.
How Cyprus Affects Europe
Here's a pretty straight report on what's wrong with Europe's approach to Cyprus.
Bottom line: the European Central Bank and IMF are practically inviting a run on European banks.
It may take awhile to develop, but it will be hard to turn around. Then what will happen to the Europe project?
Bottom line: the European Central Bank and IMF are practically inviting a run on European banks.
It may take awhile to develop, but it will be hard to turn around. Then what will happen to the Europe project?
Monday, March 18, 2013
1968: Perfidy In DC
Lyndon Johnson had the goods on Richard Nixon. But he couldn't use it.
The Democratic Party convention in Chicago was a disaster. Johnson even considered appearing at the last minute and putting his name forward for nomination.
Bad idea.
Peace talks were going on in Paris, and North Vietnam had made a promising offer.
Richard Nixon feared that prospects for peace would scuttle his campaign. He sent Anna Chennault as his intermediary with the South Vietnamese ambassador, pleading with them to put off negotiations and wait for a better deal after the election.
The FBI bugged Chennault and the National Security Agency monitored the Ambassador's communications with Saigon.
Johnson knew what was going on. In private he called it treason. But he couldn't make it public without revealing the monitoring. It's generally considered bad form to bug embassies and read ambassadorial communications - and to reveal it in public.
Of course, it's even worse form not to monitor and to get caught flat footed.
So Johnson kept his mouth shut in public.
Nixon won by less than 1%. Had Nixon's perfidy become public, he may well have lost by a landslide.
Here is the story. All captured on Lyndon Johnson's White House tapes.
It wouldn't be the last time a presidential candidate meddled in international negotiations to the detriment of national interests. It may well have been the last time such actions were so clearly documented.
The Democratic Party convention in Chicago was a disaster. Johnson even considered appearing at the last minute and putting his name forward for nomination.
Bad idea.
Peace talks were going on in Paris, and North Vietnam had made a promising offer.
Richard Nixon feared that prospects for peace would scuttle his campaign. He sent Anna Chennault as his intermediary with the South Vietnamese ambassador, pleading with them to put off negotiations and wait for a better deal after the election.
The FBI bugged Chennault and the National Security Agency monitored the Ambassador's communications with Saigon.
Johnson knew what was going on. In private he called it treason. But he couldn't make it public without revealing the monitoring. It's generally considered bad form to bug embassies and read ambassadorial communications - and to reveal it in public.
Of course, it's even worse form not to monitor and to get caught flat footed.
So Johnson kept his mouth shut in public.
Nixon won by less than 1%. Had Nixon's perfidy become public, he may well have lost by a landslide.
Here is the story. All captured on Lyndon Johnson's White House tapes.
It wouldn't be the last time a presidential candidate meddled in international negotiations to the detriment of national interests. It may well have been the last time such actions were so clearly documented.
Bank Heist In Cyprus Threatens Eurozone
Over the weekend, IMF, ECB and Cyprus banking officials agreed to a plan to swipe depositor's funds to pay for a bailout. Small depositors rush to get their funds out of banks. The mattress looks safer. Will this trigger a run on banks in other European countries?
More evidence that the Eurozone is a flawed monetary union.
What can they be thinking.
Germany remains confident in austerity.
One view of the decision:
More evidence that the Eurozone is a flawed monetary union.
What can they be thinking.
Germany remains confident in austerity.
One view of the decision:
Sunday, March 17, 2013
World Wide Shortages: Wisdom, Compassion, Humanity
"Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?"
Axel Oxenstierna, Chancellor of Sweden to his son (1648).
I reflect on this quote from time to time and conclude that nothing has changed since 1648. That was about two decades before my first European ancestor arrived in Virginia.
I would like to believe that the American Experience has added to the world's stock of wisdom, but the more I study our own history, the less my confidence in that hope.
Still, I think it is at least a mixed bag. Some wisdom, some foolishness, some downright selfishness and inhumanity.
Today's Washington Post has a very illuminating article on the SNAP program (formerly known as Food Stamps) in Woonsocket, Rhode Island. The article is worth reading for a number of reasons. First, it illuminates the amount of work that poor families have to go through to take advantage of SNAP. more importantly, it makes it clear that SNAP is much more than a program assisting individuals and families. It keeps whole communities alive.
Without safety net programs like SNAP, even more small businesses would have closed and small towns across the land would have become ghost towns. As the article explains:
"At precisely one second after midnight, on March 1, Woonsocket would experience its monthly financial windfall — nearly $2 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. Federal money would be electronically transferred to the broke residents of a nearly bankrupt town, where it would flow first into grocery stores and then on to food companies, employees and banks, beginning the monthly cycle that has helped Woonsocket survive."
More importantly, programs like SNAP, Unemployment compensation, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security help us avoid persistent regions of deep poverty and hunger that once existed across Appalachia and other rural areas of the country.
But if you read the article, be sure to also read and reflect on the many mean-spirited comments made by Washington Post readers.
And ask yourselves the question: "What kind of country do we want to be when we grow up?"
Axel Oxenstierna, Chancellor of Sweden to his son (1648).
I reflect on this quote from time to time and conclude that nothing has changed since 1648. That was about two decades before my first European ancestor arrived in Virginia.
I would like to believe that the American Experience has added to the world's stock of wisdom, but the more I study our own history, the less my confidence in that hope.
Still, I think it is at least a mixed bag. Some wisdom, some foolishness, some downright selfishness and inhumanity.
Today's Washington Post has a very illuminating article on the SNAP program (formerly known as Food Stamps) in Woonsocket, Rhode Island. The article is worth reading for a number of reasons. First, it illuminates the amount of work that poor families have to go through to take advantage of SNAP. more importantly, it makes it clear that SNAP is much more than a program assisting individuals and families. It keeps whole communities alive.
Without safety net programs like SNAP, even more small businesses would have closed and small towns across the land would have become ghost towns. As the article explains:
"At precisely one second after midnight, on March 1, Woonsocket would experience its monthly financial windfall — nearly $2 million from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps. Federal money would be electronically transferred to the broke residents of a nearly bankrupt town, where it would flow first into grocery stores and then on to food companies, employees and banks, beginning the monthly cycle that has helped Woonsocket survive."
More importantly, programs like SNAP, Unemployment compensation, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security help us avoid persistent regions of deep poverty and hunger that once existed across Appalachia and other rural areas of the country.
But if you read the article, be sure to also read and reflect on the many mean-spirited comments made by Washington Post readers.
And ask yourselves the question: "What kind of country do we want to be when we grow up?"
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Ten Years Ago: Freedom Fries
I failed to note an anniversary last week. On March 11, 2003, Congressman Walter B. Jones and Congressman Bob Ney announced that henceforth menu items in the Congressional cafeteria would be renamed: "French Fries" would henceforth be listed as "Freedom Fries," and "French Toast" would be renamed "Freedom Toast."
This episode of international silliness started because France refused to join the United States in the invasion of Iraq.
Quickly forgotten by most Americans was that on September 12, 2001, NATO (including France) invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, declaring that if it was shown that the September 11 attack was coordinated from abroad, the Alliance viewed the attack on the United States as an attack on all members.
Early on in the effort to retaliate against Afghanistan, European members of NATO offered to contribute more military forces than the United States was willing to accept.
The Bush Administration sought special assistance from French Intelligence sources. France had by far the most complete intelligence in the Western world on Islamic extremism. They willingly shared this information with the United States. In fact, it is fair to say that French intelligence was essential to the early progress of the investigation.
When the United States turned its attention from Afghanistan to Iraq, France was not the only NATO member unwilling to support the invasion of Iraq. Turkey also refused to allow US forces to invade Iraq across the Turkish-Iraqi border.
Both Turkey and France were quite certain that Iraq had nothing to do the 9/11 attack on the US, and were equally certain that Saddam Hussein had not collaborated with Al-Qaida.
When asked much later about the "Freedom Fries" episode, Congressman Jones admitted he "wished it had never happened."
This episode of international silliness started because France refused to join the United States in the invasion of Iraq.
Quickly forgotten by most Americans was that on September 12, 2001, NATO (including France) invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, declaring that if it was shown that the September 11 attack was coordinated from abroad, the Alliance viewed the attack on the United States as an attack on all members.
Early on in the effort to retaliate against Afghanistan, European members of NATO offered to contribute more military forces than the United States was willing to accept.
The Bush Administration sought special assistance from French Intelligence sources. France had by far the most complete intelligence in the Western world on Islamic extremism. They willingly shared this information with the United States. In fact, it is fair to say that French intelligence was essential to the early progress of the investigation.
When the United States turned its attention from Afghanistan to Iraq, France was not the only NATO member unwilling to support the invasion of Iraq. Turkey also refused to allow US forces to invade Iraq across the Turkish-Iraqi border.
Both Turkey and France were quite certain that Iraq had nothing to do the 9/11 attack on the US, and were equally certain that Saddam Hussein had not collaborated with Al-Qaida.
When asked much later about the "Freedom Fries" episode, Congressman Jones admitted he "wished it had never happened."
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Right Of Way Decision
Residents keep asking me what I plan to do about Judge Alford's dismissal of my complaint against the Town.
All I can say is, I don't know. I haven't seen the draft of the Judge's order. So, although I know what I heard during the hearing, I don't know what the written order will say.
So I'm holding off on a decision until I read the order.
I'll let everyone know as soon as the order is entered.
All I can say is, I don't know. I haven't seen the draft of the Judge's order. So, although I know what I heard during the hearing, I don't know what the written order will say.
So I'm holding off on a decision until I read the order.
I'll let everyone know as soon as the order is entered.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
NC: Remove All Ferry Tolls
Local resident Greg Piner, who used the Minnesott ferry for decades to commute to work at the Marine Corps Air Station, has a creative and rational idea about ferry tolls.
Piner, who has argued against adding tolls to the previously free ferries used mostly by Pamlico County workers, has figured out that North Carolina would be better off without ferry tolls. He disclosed his idea here on Town Dock.net.
Local Real Estate Developer Larry Gwaltney has expressed similar ideas on his Facebook page:
Piner, who has argued against adding tolls to the previously free ferries used mostly by Pamlico County workers, has figured out that North Carolina would be better off without ferry tolls. He disclosed his idea here on Town Dock.net.
Local Real Estate Developer Larry Gwaltney has expressed similar ideas on his Facebook page:
Is The Pope Italian?
It is by now an old joke. For much of my life, a response to an obvious question (one to which the answer might be: "duh?") would be, instead, "is the Pope Catholic?" The joke was modified after the first Polish Pope, to: "Is the Pope Italian?" To which, of course, the right answer was no longer "yes!" That continued to be the case after Cardinal Ratzinger was elected to the Papacy.
Now things are a bit more complicated. Pope Francis I (nee Bergoglio) is the son of Italian immigrants to Argentina. In at least the sense of ethnicity, the Pope is Italian.
More worthy of concern is that the Pope is Argentine. Remember the "disappeared" and Argentina's "dirty war" of kidnapping, torture and murder of leftists? There has long been information that the hands of Argentina's Catholic hierarchy were not clean in this matter. How about Bergoglio?
Today, Pope Francis I is being described as more concerned than many of his predecessors about poverty and injustice. Let us hope this is so.
The brutal Argentine military dictatorship ended thirty years ago. Many Argentine institutions were compromised by their actions during that period, not least the Argentine Navy. Maybe Francis I can lead Argentines in a final refutation of that period. That would be a good thing.
Here are a few links to articles about Argentine Catholics, including Bergoglio, during the dictatorship:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2011/jan/04/argenitina-videla-bergoglio-repentance
http://gregmitchellwriter.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-pope-and-shame-of-argentina.html
http://en.mercopress.com/2012/07/24/argentine-military-dictator-confirms-catholic-church-hierarchy-was-well-aware-of-the-disappeared
http://americasouthandnorth.wordpress.com/2013/03/13/on-the-selection-of-jorge-mario-bergoglio-as-pope-francisco/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/pope-francis-is-known-for-simplicity-and-humility.php
Now things are a bit more complicated. Pope Francis I (nee Bergoglio) is the son of Italian immigrants to Argentina. In at least the sense of ethnicity, the Pope is Italian.
More worthy of concern is that the Pope is Argentine. Remember the "disappeared" and Argentina's "dirty war" of kidnapping, torture and murder of leftists? There has long been information that the hands of Argentina's Catholic hierarchy were not clean in this matter. How about Bergoglio?
Today, Pope Francis I is being described as more concerned than many of his predecessors about poverty and injustice. Let us hope this is so.
The brutal Argentine military dictatorship ended thirty years ago. Many Argentine institutions were compromised by their actions during that period, not least the Argentine Navy. Maybe Francis I can lead Argentines in a final refutation of that period. That would be a good thing.
Here are a few links to articles about Argentine Catholics, including Bergoglio, during the dictatorship:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2011/jan/04/argenitina-videla-bergoglio-repentance
http://gregmitchellwriter.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-pope-and-shame-of-argentina.html
http://en.mercopress.com/2012/07/24/argentine-military-dictator-confirms-catholic-church-hierarchy-was-well-aware-of-the-disappeared
http://americasouthandnorth.wordpress.com/2013/03/13/on-the-selection-of-jorge-mario-bergoglio-as-pope-francisco/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/pope-francis-is-known-for-simplicity-and-humility.php
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
NOVA - Earth From Space
Just spent two illuminating hours watching a PBS video: "Earth From Space." The graphics and the explanations are spectacular and illuminating.
Not many of us have enough knowledge of the earth sciences to carry this information around in our heads. The program needs to be seen again and again.
And we all need to know what an explosion of knowledge about earth has resulted from our space programs.
Not many of us have enough knowledge of the earth sciences to carry this information around in our heads. The program needs to be seen again and again.
And we all need to know what an explosion of knowledge about earth has resulted from our space programs.
Europe - Not Looking Good
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has brought the Eurozone back from the brink. He accomplished this by measures not unlike quantitative easing. Countries with troubled economies are at least not under so much pressure right now over sovereign debt.
But levels of unemployment in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal are much too high (on the order of 25%) and the economies of other Eurozone countries, including the Netherlands aren't much better. The economic distress is leading to a rise of extremist political parties.
Brussels Eurocrats and German bankers seem oblivious to the consequences of their obsession with financial austerity. To date, the result of all this austerity is larger deficits. Which leads to predictable calls by the masters of the system for even more austerity. Which will lead to even larger deficits.
I fear we know where this story leads. It all depends on whether Europe makes good use of the time Draghi won for them. Right now, that doesn't appear likely.
Meanwhile, next door in Hungary, an authoritarian government is grabbing even more power.
But levels of unemployment in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal are much too high (on the order of 25%) and the economies of other Eurozone countries, including the Netherlands aren't much better. The economic distress is leading to a rise of extremist political parties.
Brussels Eurocrats and German bankers seem oblivious to the consequences of their obsession with financial austerity. To date, the result of all this austerity is larger deficits. Which leads to predictable calls by the masters of the system for even more austerity. Which will lead to even larger deficits.
I fear we know where this story leads. It all depends on whether Europe makes good use of the time Draghi won for them. Right now, that doesn't appear likely.
Meanwhile, next door in Hungary, an authoritarian government is grabbing even more power.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
New Schedule Of Boat Registration Fees
Our State Senator, Norman Sanderson, is sponsoring a bill to increase boat registration fees. If the bill passes, the new fee schedule will be as follows:
(a1) Fees. – The fees for certificates of
number are as set out in this subsection:
(1) The fee for a certificate of number for a
one‑year period is:
a. Fifteen dollars ($15.00) for a vessel
that is less than 14 feet in length.
b. Twenty‑five dollars ($25.00) for a
vessel that is 14 feet or more in length but less than 20 feet in length.
c. Fifty dollars ($50.00) for a vessel that
is 20 feet or more in length but less than 26 feet in length.
d. One hundred dollars ($100.00) for a
vessel that is 26 feet or more in length but less than 40 feet in length.
e. One hundred fifty dollars ($150.00) for a
vessel that is more than 40 feet in length.
(2) The fee for a certificate of number for a
three‑year period is:
a. Forty‑five dollars ($45.00) for a
vessel that is less than 14 feet in length.
b. Seventy‑five dollars ($75.00) for a
vessel that is 14 feet or more in length but less than 20 feet in length.
c. One hundred fifty dollars ($150.00) for a
vessel that is 20 feet or more in length but less than 26 feet in length.
d. Three hundred dollars ($300.00) for a
vessel that is 26 feet or more in length but less than 40 feet in length.
e. Four hundred fifty dollars ($450.00) for
a vessel that is more than 40 feet in length.
(b) Reciprocity. – The owner of any vessel already
covered by a number in full force and effect pursuant to federal law or a
federally approved numbering system of another state shall record the
identification number prior to operating the vessel on the waters of this State
in excess of the 90‑day reciprocity period provided for in G.S. 75A‑7(a)(1).
The recordation shall be made pursuant to subsection (a) of this section,
except that no additional or substitute identification number shall be issued.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Languages Other Than English Spoken At Home
The Washington Post has an interesting article and link to a revealing map showing, county by county, where in the US languages other than English are spoken in the home.
One interesting revelation is that Spanish is spoken at home in almost every county in the United States. Other prevalent languages are German and French.
In all of the hullabaloo over immigrants learning English, we often forget about some of our history. A century ago, there was a thriving trade in newspapers printed for immigrants in foreign languages. There were newspapers and magazines printed in German, Yiddish, Spanish, Polish, Czech, Chinese, Russian, Cherokee and others. Headstones in Bethlehem and Lebanon, Pennsylvania and in Wythe County Virginia and Frederick County, Maryland are carved in German. The language of instruction in elementary school in Fredericksburg, Texas was German until about 1920. My high school Spanish teacher was raised in a German-speaking community in Wisconsin and spoke only German until she started in first grade. When Colorado achieved statehood, the record of state legislative proceedings was published in both Spanish and English. Новое русское слово (Novoye Russkoye Slovo or "New Russian Word") has been published in New York City since about 1920. It is still published.
We are a far more polyglot nation than most of us think.
One interesting revelation is that Spanish is spoken at home in almost every county in the United States. Other prevalent languages are German and French.
In all of the hullabaloo over immigrants learning English, we often forget about some of our history. A century ago, there was a thriving trade in newspapers printed for immigrants in foreign languages. There were newspapers and magazines printed in German, Yiddish, Spanish, Polish, Czech, Chinese, Russian, Cherokee and others. Headstones in Bethlehem and Lebanon, Pennsylvania and in Wythe County Virginia and Frederick County, Maryland are carved in German. The language of instruction in elementary school in Fredericksburg, Texas was German until about 1920. My high school Spanish teacher was raised in a German-speaking community in Wisconsin and spoke only German until she started in first grade. When Colorado achieved statehood, the record of state legislative proceedings was published in both Spanish and English. Новое русское слово (Novoye Russkoye Slovo or "New Russian Word") has been published in New York City since about 1920. It is still published.
We are a far more polyglot nation than most of us think.
Oriental Town Board Meeting For March
Town Dock has posted a very complete report of this month's Town Board meeting here. For those who were unable to attend, reading this report is a good way to keep up with what the Town is doing.
I don't know what the explanation is, but I have noticed the last two meetings were conducted in a businesslike fashion and were over pretty quickly. Not much more than an hour. This is good.
I did note that, once again, the board acted on a "non-agenda" item brought up after the published agenda was completed. I think that is a bad procedure. To be sure, there may be occasions when some urgent matter arises in the five days between the agenda meeting and the business meeting. These occasions should be rare. I think the Board should never act on a matter brought up by a commissioner at the end of the meeting that is not on the agenda. I would suggest that at the beginning of the meeting commissioners be asked if they have additional agenda items and that such items be formally added to the agenda by unanimous vote or to be tabled until the next meeting.
I don't know what the explanation is, but I have noticed the last two meetings were conducted in a businesslike fashion and were over pretty quickly. Not much more than an hour. This is good.
I did note that, once again, the board acted on a "non-agenda" item brought up after the published agenda was completed. I think that is a bad procedure. To be sure, there may be occasions when some urgent matter arises in the five days between the agenda meeting and the business meeting. These occasions should be rare. I think the Board should never act on a matter brought up by a commissioner at the end of the meeting that is not on the agenda. I would suggest that at the beginning of the meeting commissioners be asked if they have additional agenda items and that such items be formally added to the agenda by unanimous vote or to be tabled until the next meeting.
Friday, March 8, 2013
Employment Report - Better But Not Yet Good
Today's employment report showed more new jobs in February than many observers expected. But don't break out the champagne and confetti just yet. There are drags on the economy - continued decline in government employment at all levels, for example. Economic decline in Europe.
A new high in the Dow Jones doesn't put money in the pockets of people who work for a living, no matter what color collar they may wear. The unemployment rate is down to its lowest level in years. But that measure can be really misleading. It doesn't count workers who are too discouraged to seek employment as in the labor force.
And the sequester won't help.
By the way, we don't have a fiscal problem. We have a jobs problem. Put citizens back to work and the deficit mostly (but not entirely) goes away.
I prefer the broader measure of percentage of working-age citizens who are employed. Here is that measure:
A new high in the Dow Jones doesn't put money in the pockets of people who work for a living, no matter what color collar they may wear. The unemployment rate is down to its lowest level in years. But that measure can be really misleading. It doesn't count workers who are too discouraged to seek employment as in the labor force.
And the sequester won't help.
By the way, we don't have a fiscal problem. We have a jobs problem. Put citizens back to work and the deficit mostly (but not entirely) goes away.
I prefer the broader measure of percentage of working-age citizens who are employed. Here is that measure:
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Disappointed But Not Discouraged
A little after 10:00 this morning, I received Judge Alford's decision in the case of Cox v. Town of Oriental. Here is what the judge said:
"Defendants' Motions to Dismiss the Action For Declaratory Judgment and their Motion For Judgment On The Pleadings are allowed. I would ask Mr. Wright (counsel for Defendants) to draft the Orders, share them with the plaintiff and email them to me as a Word Document for printing, signing and return.
My best to all.
Benjamin G. Alford
Senior Resident Superior Court Judge
3B Judicial District"
I am now reading the NC Rules of Appellate Procedure. Should I decide to appeal, I have 30 days after the Judge's order is entered to file a Notice of Appeal.
"Defendants' Motions to Dismiss the Action For Declaratory Judgment and their Motion For Judgment On The Pleadings are allowed. I would ask Mr. Wright (counsel for Defendants) to draft the Orders, share them with the plaintiff and email them to me as a Word Document for printing, signing and return.
My best to all.
Benjamin G. Alford
Senior Resident Superior Court Judge
3B Judicial District"
I am now reading the NC Rules of Appellate Procedure. Should I decide to appeal, I have 30 days after the Judge's order is entered to file a Notice of Appeal.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Wealth Distribution In America
A friend recently shared a link to a video exploring how wealth is distributed in America. There are a lot of different ways of presenting the same information or related information. We can look at income inequality. Over time, income inequality becomes wealth inequality.
Just this week, the stock market reached a new high. That has increased the wealth of some Americans at the top of the economic scale. Meanwhile, middle-class income has stagnated for forty years.
Here is a video examining wealth.
I will look for one that reveals income inequality and post the best one I find.
Then there is the issue of economic mobility.
We're number one, right?
As it turns out, countries in Western Europe and Northern Europe have more equal distribution of wealth, greater economic mobility and even higher levels of creation of small business than does the U.S.
Not to mention less expensive health care with better outcomes.
Americans need to get out more. Visit other countries. Keep an open mind. Might learn something.
Just this week, the stock market reached a new high. That has increased the wealth of some Americans at the top of the economic scale. Meanwhile, middle-class income has stagnated for forty years.
Here is a video examining wealth.
I will look for one that reveals income inequality and post the best one I find.
Then there is the issue of economic mobility.
We're number one, right?
As it turns out, countries in Western Europe and Northern Europe have more equal distribution of wealth, greater economic mobility and even higher levels of creation of small business than does the U.S.
Not to mention less expensive health care with better outcomes.
Americans need to get out more. Visit other countries. Keep an open mind. Might learn something.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Pamlico County Superior Court March 4
Just a quick report. Both sides in my complaint against the Town of Oriental presented their arguments. The Town argued for dismissal. I argued against dismissal. The judge remained pretty impassive and promised a decision later this week.
I thought the Town made some valid points, but also made some very specious arguments.
What really counts is what the judge thought.
We'll know later.
I thought the Town made some valid points, but also made some very specious arguments.
What really counts is what the judge thought.
We'll know later.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Seventy Years Ago: New Guinea And Bismarck Sea
They called it "The Battle Of Bismarck Sea," but it wasn't much of a battle.
Following the loss of Guadalcanal, Japan shifted their focus to New Guinea. The plan was to reinforce their airbases at Salamaua and Lae.
A Japanese convoy of eight destroyers and eight troop transports with an escort of approximately 100 aircraft – assembled and departed from Simpson Harbour in Rabaul 28 February. They planned a route along the north coast, to avoid Allied air cover. Allied air attacks on the convoy at this point would have to fly over New Britain, allowing easy interception from Japanese air bases. But the final leg ran the gauntlet of the Vitiaz Strait.
Allied cryptanalysts decrypted Japanese communications revealing the plan. More than 6,000 Japanese troops were on their way to reinforce Lae. General MacArthur, concerned that the reinforcements would make it impossible for the Allies to advance in New Guinea, ordered General Kenney, Commander of the Fifth Air Force, to attack the convoys.
Beginning March 2, 1943, Allied Air Forces began attacking the Japanese convoy with a mix of light, heavy and medium bombers specially converted and trained to attack shipping, accompanied by 54 fighters.
By end of the day March 4, the Allies had sunk 8 transports and five destroyers, destroyed twenty Japanese aircraft and prevented all but 1200 Japanese soldiers from reaching Lae.
Many of the attacking aircraft flew over the Owen Stanley range from Port Moresby. My father, serving at Port Moresby in the 27th Air Depot group, was subjected to nightly air raids by Japanese aircraft flying from Lae and Salamaua. During the day he put US aircraft back together for new missions.
Following the loss of Guadalcanal, Japan shifted their focus to New Guinea. The plan was to reinforce their airbases at Salamaua and Lae.
A Japanese convoy of eight destroyers and eight troop transports with an escort of approximately 100 aircraft – assembled and departed from Simpson Harbour in Rabaul 28 February. They planned a route along the north coast, to avoid Allied air cover. Allied air attacks on the convoy at this point would have to fly over New Britain, allowing easy interception from Japanese air bases. But the final leg ran the gauntlet of the Vitiaz Strait.
Allied cryptanalysts decrypted Japanese communications revealing the plan. More than 6,000 Japanese troops were on their way to reinforce Lae. General MacArthur, concerned that the reinforcements would make it impossible for the Allies to advance in New Guinea, ordered General Kenney, Commander of the Fifth Air Force, to attack the convoys.
Beginning March 2, 1943, Allied Air Forces began attacking the Japanese convoy with a mix of light, heavy and medium bombers specially converted and trained to attack shipping, accompanied by 54 fighters.
By end of the day March 4, the Allies had sunk 8 transports and five destroyers, destroyed twenty Japanese aircraft and prevented all but 1200 Japanese soldiers from reaching Lae.
Many of the attacking aircraft flew over the Owen Stanley range from Port Moresby. My father, serving at Port Moresby in the 27th Air Depot group, was subjected to nightly air raids by Japanese aircraft flying from Lae and Salamaua. During the day he put US aircraft back together for new missions.
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Going To Court
Last minute preps for tomorrow's hearing at Pamlico Court House. Town has filed three motions to dismiss.
I'm trying to protect the public's interest but the issues seem complicated to them. Why am I doing it? I'm not sure.
Maybe it's like climbing the mountain because it's there.
Right now it feels more like Sisyphus rolling the stone up the hill.
I'll know more tomorrow.
I'm trying to protect the public's interest but the issues seem complicated to them. Why am I doing it? I'm not sure.
Maybe it's like climbing the mountain because it's there.
Right now it feels more like Sisyphus rolling the stone up the hill.
I'll know more tomorrow.
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Oriental Land Swap - Or Is It?
Anyone curious about what I have been up to lately can get a good idea by reading today's article in Town Dock. I think it's a fair summary of the whole issue, starting several years ago.
My role in the Town's lawsuit against a local landowner was actually modest. The Town decided in 2002, nearly four years before I moved here, to file the suit. Much of the information in the Town's complaint was researched by Grace Evans, a local citizen and former member of the Town Board and many other boards, who uncovered records in the Town minutes and actually caused those minutes to be preserved.
The case goes before Judge Alford at the Pamlico County courthouse Monday morning, March 4th, to hear motions by the Town to dismiss my complaint and an amendment thereto. The court will open at 10:00 to hear motions.
My role in the Town's lawsuit against a local landowner was actually modest. The Town decided in 2002, nearly four years before I moved here, to file the suit. Much of the information in the Town's complaint was researched by Grace Evans, a local citizen and former member of the Town Board and many other boards, who uncovered records in the Town minutes and actually caused those minutes to be preserved.
The case goes before Judge Alford at the Pamlico County courthouse Monday morning, March 4th, to hear motions by the Town to dismiss my complaint and an amendment thereto. The court will open at 10:00 to hear motions.
Friday, March 1, 2013
Congressional District Size
Awhile back, I suggested we could improve the responsiveness of Congress by increasing the size of the House of Representatives to the same ratio of Representatives to population as existed when we arrived at the present size of 435.
There is an unratified amendment, the first of the original twelve submitted in 1789, of which the first ten became the Bill of Rights. The eleventh to be adopted became the 27th Amendment, adopted in 1992. The sole remaining amendment is muddled because of a scrivener's error when the amendment was engrossed. As intended by the Congress, it would require a House of Representatives of 6,000 members today. As printed and sent to the states, it would if adopted have no effect on the size of the House.
This comes to mind in light of Nate Silver's recent post on the Electoral College.
The number of citizens represented by each member of the House was a big issue in 1787.There was a widespread belief that the number represented by each member should be no more than 50,000.
Having large districts with long terms of office was thought to be a way to favor the interests of "property" and "respectable" citizens. A smaller number of citizens per representative with shorter terms was thought to favor the common people.
Here's how James Madison explained it:
Should Experience or public opinion require an equal and universal suffrage for each branch of the Government such as prevails generally in the U.S., (then) a resource favorable to the rights of landed and other property, when its possessors become the Minority, may be found in the enlargement of the Election Districts for one branch of the Legislature and a prolongation of its period of service. Large districts are manifestly favorable to the election of persons of general respectability, and of probable attachment to the rights of property, over competitors depending on the personal solicitations practicable on a contracted theater. And although an ambitious candidate, of personal distinction, might occasionally recommend himself to popular choice by espousing a popular though unjust object, it might rarely happen to many districts at the same time. The tendency of a longer period of service would be, to render the Body more stable in its policy, and more capable of stemming popular currents taking a wrong direction, till reason and justice could regain their ascendancy. Should even such a modification as the last be deemed inadmissible, and universal suffrage and very short periods of elections within contracted spheres be required for each branch of the Government, the security for the holders of property when the minority, can only be derived from the ordinary influence possessed by property, and the superior information incident to its holders; from the popular sense of justice enlarged and by a diffusive education; and from the difficulty of combining and effectuating unjust purposes throughout an extensive country; a difficulty essentially distinguishing the U.S. and even most of the individual States, from the small communities where a mistaken interest or contagious passion, could readily unite a majority of the whole under a factious leader in trampling on the rights of the Minor party.
There is an unratified amendment, the first of the original twelve submitted in 1789, of which the first ten became the Bill of Rights. The eleventh to be adopted became the 27th Amendment, adopted in 1992. The sole remaining amendment is muddled because of a scrivener's error when the amendment was engrossed. As intended by the Congress, it would require a House of Representatives of 6,000 members today. As printed and sent to the states, it would if adopted have no effect on the size of the House.
This comes to mind in light of Nate Silver's recent post on the Electoral College.
The number of citizens represented by each member of the House was a big issue in 1787.There was a widespread belief that the number represented by each member should be no more than 50,000.
Having large districts with long terms of office was thought to be a way to favor the interests of "property" and "respectable" citizens. A smaller number of citizens per representative with shorter terms was thought to favor the common people.
Here's how James Madison explained it:
Should Experience or public opinion require an equal and universal suffrage for each branch of the Government such as prevails generally in the U.S., (then) a resource favorable to the rights of landed and other property, when its possessors become the Minority, may be found in the enlargement of the Election Districts for one branch of the Legislature and a prolongation of its period of service. Large districts are manifestly favorable to the election of persons of general respectability, and of probable attachment to the rights of property, over competitors depending on the personal solicitations practicable on a contracted theater. And although an ambitious candidate, of personal distinction, might occasionally recommend himself to popular choice by espousing a popular though unjust object, it might rarely happen to many districts at the same time. The tendency of a longer period of service would be, to render the Body more stable in its policy, and more capable of stemming popular currents taking a wrong direction, till reason and justice could regain their ascendancy. Should even such a modification as the last be deemed inadmissible, and universal suffrage and very short periods of elections within contracted spheres be required for each branch of the Government, the security for the holders of property when the minority, can only be derived from the ordinary influence possessed by property, and the superior information incident to its holders; from the popular sense of justice enlarged and by a diffusive education; and from the difficulty of combining and effectuating unjust purposes throughout an extensive country; a difficulty essentially distinguishing the U.S. and even most of the individual States, from the small communities where a mistaken interest or contagious passion, could readily unite a majority of the whole under a factious leader in trampling on the rights of the Minor party.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Drones, War and Moral Hazard
There has been a lot of discussion by talking heads and writing (by writing heads?) recently about drones. And not just against terrorists. It almost sound like our domestic airspace will soon be full of drones.
Let's give some thought to what we are about. I'm not sure that dressing game console operators up in flight suits, paying them "incentive pay" (we used to call it flight pay), calling them "pilots" and giving them hero medals is what we should be doing.
What I think I'm hearing is a lot of relatively naive talk about "killing the bad guys" though it might be couched in more sophisticated verbiage.
In the popular imagination, war is about killing as many of our opponents as possible. In the professional imagination, Karl von Klausewitz was closer to the mark when he explained that "war is politics by other, namely violent means." What he means, is that there must be a point to what we do beyond killing "the bad guys."
War is not completely separate from diplomacy, either. I think presidential scholar Richard Neustadt got it about right a half century ago when he described the task of diplomacy as to convince enough people and the right people on the other side that what you want is what they also want, in order to further their own interest.
Some sources of human conflict are best moderated with deterrence, some with "compellance," and some with negotiation. Wisdom lies in knowing when. And to what end.
Violence, in the long run, is not a way of resolving human conflict. In international affairs, it is at best like the two by four the farmer hits the mule with. "That's to get it's attention," the farmer explains.
Once you get the opponent's attention, maybe it's best to sit down and reason together.
Back to the subject of drones. And moral hazard.
Let me repeat some earlier thoughts.
Economists talk about "moral hazard." This refers to a situation where there is a tendency to take undue risks because the costs are not borne by the party taking the risk. Like financial wizards who take in enormous bonuses just before the crash and leaves it to the rest of the country to pick up the pieces. We should extend the concept to war.
In 1941 and 1942 the attacking forces faced at least as much risk as those being attacked. This was true at Pearl Harbor, at Bataan and Corregidor, in the Coral Sea, at Midway, and countless other battles.
It is usually not true of the political leaders who order a country to war. They do not bear the risks that face the military forces.
The equation of risk becomes distorted forever when attacks are conducted from halfway around the world by skilled gamers who sit in front of computers and direct robotic drones to destroy targets and people. It is the inhabitants of target areas who bear the risk.
Is this a kind of moral risk we are willing to take?
As a professional military officer, I always wanted to minimize the risk to my own sailors. At what point does this kind of planning cross a moral divide?
Apart from moral considerations, we may need to think about the message we convey. Is the message that our cause is not worth risking an American life? If so, we should say so. But we need to ask ourselves the question - if a cause is not worth dying for, is it worth killing for?
Let's give some thought to what we are about. I'm not sure that dressing game console operators up in flight suits, paying them "incentive pay" (we used to call it flight pay), calling them "pilots" and giving them hero medals is what we should be doing.
What I think I'm hearing is a lot of relatively naive talk about "killing the bad guys" though it might be couched in more sophisticated verbiage.
In the popular imagination, war is about killing as many of our opponents as possible. In the professional imagination, Karl von Klausewitz was closer to the mark when he explained that "war is politics by other, namely violent means." What he means, is that there must be a point to what we do beyond killing "the bad guys."
War is not completely separate from diplomacy, either. I think presidential scholar Richard Neustadt got it about right a half century ago when he described the task of diplomacy as to convince enough people and the right people on the other side that what you want is what they also want, in order to further their own interest.
Some sources of human conflict are best moderated with deterrence, some with "compellance," and some with negotiation. Wisdom lies in knowing when. And to what end.
Violence, in the long run, is not a way of resolving human conflict. In international affairs, it is at best like the two by four the farmer hits the mule with. "That's to get it's attention," the farmer explains.
Once you get the opponent's attention, maybe it's best to sit down and reason together.
Back to the subject of drones. And moral hazard.
Let me repeat some earlier thoughts.
Economists talk about "moral hazard." This refers to a situation where there is a tendency to take undue risks because the costs are not borne by the party taking the risk. Like financial wizards who take in enormous bonuses just before the crash and leaves it to the rest of the country to pick up the pieces. We should extend the concept to war.
In 1941 and 1942 the attacking forces faced at least as much risk as those being attacked. This was true at Pearl Harbor, at Bataan and Corregidor, in the Coral Sea, at Midway, and countless other battles.
It is usually not true of the political leaders who order a country to war. They do not bear the risks that face the military forces.
The equation of risk becomes distorted forever when attacks are conducted from halfway around the world by skilled gamers who sit in front of computers and direct robotic drones to destroy targets and people. It is the inhabitants of target areas who bear the risk.
Is this a kind of moral risk we are willing to take?
As a professional military officer, I always wanted to minimize the risk to my own sailors. At what point does this kind of planning cross a moral divide?
Apart from moral considerations, we may need to think about the message we convey. Is the message that our cause is not worth risking an American life? If so, we should say so. But we need to ask ourselves the question - if a cause is not worth dying for, is it worth killing for?
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Does The US Need A Different Layout Of States?
Today's New York Times web site posted a very interesting analysis of the electoral college by Nate Silver on his blog, Five Thirty-Eight. The article's headline, "Did Democrats Get Lucky In The Electoral College?" doesn't convey the depth and innovation of the analysis.
The most interesting component of the analysis is a map of the United States redrawn into fifty states, each with equal population. The point of the map is to illustrate the effect such redrawn boundaries would have on the outcome of the electoral college.
Nate Silver's discussion of the electoral college and the associated issues of reapportionment and redistricting is among the best I have ever read. I like the map, but also like a table in the article showing the distribution of population within each state into urban, suburban and rural. Not unsurprisingly, Wyoming is the most rural state in the union. Vermont is the least urban, followed by Mississippi with only 4% urban population.
As I looked at the map, I was also struck by its resemblance to a concept put forth by George Kennan in his 1993 book "Around The Cragged Hill." In short, Kennan believed the United States was so big as to be ungovernable. He proposed that a better scheme would be to split the country apart into what amounted to city-states.
Years later, others picked up on Kennan's idea and began pushing a movement to promote the idea of states seceding from the Union. Then again, maybe they didn't even know about Kennan's ideas.
The most interesting component of the analysis is a map of the United States redrawn into fifty states, each with equal population. The point of the map is to illustrate the effect such redrawn boundaries would have on the outcome of the electoral college.
Nate Silver's discussion of the electoral college and the associated issues of reapportionment and redistricting is among the best I have ever read. I like the map, but also like a table in the article showing the distribution of population within each state into urban, suburban and rural. Not unsurprisingly, Wyoming is the most rural state in the union. Vermont is the least urban, followed by Mississippi with only 4% urban population.
As I looked at the map, I was also struck by its resemblance to a concept put forth by George Kennan in his 1993 book "Around The Cragged Hill." In short, Kennan believed the United States was so big as to be ungovernable. He proposed that a better scheme would be to split the country apart into what amounted to city-states.
Years later, others picked up on Kennan's idea and began pushing a movement to promote the idea of states seceding from the Union. Then again, maybe they didn't even know about Kennan's ideas.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Persistent, Patient Courage
Courage comes in many guises. Here, in a story from Today's New York Times, is one of the most powerful forms of courage.
I don't know General Borling. On the basis of this story, I would follow him anywhere.
Borling doesn't claim to be heroic. That reflects the self effacing but effective courage of an older generation - a very much older generation.
Borling's view of what's important: do the best you can with what you have, right where you are.
I don't know General Borling. On the basis of this story, I would follow him anywhere.
Borling doesn't claim to be heroic. That reflects the self effacing but effective courage of an older generation - a very much older generation.
Borling's view of what's important: do the best you can with what you have, right where you are.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Lifebuoy: B.O.
In recognition that it was a bit foggy this morning, Town Dock posted a link to the audio sound of a fog horn.
In all honesty, Town Dock's fog horn was a bit wimpy. But it called to mind a more robust fog horn that sounded on the radio during the 30's and 40's along with a public service announcement. Well, you could call it that, at least back in the days when people took baths at least once a week whether they needed it or not.
Here's the announcement.
If you prefer just a robust fog horn, here's a different link without the "public service."
Safe navigating!
In all honesty, Town Dock's fog horn was a bit wimpy. But it called to mind a more robust fog horn that sounded on the radio during the 30's and 40's along with a public service announcement. Well, you could call it that, at least back in the days when people took baths at least once a week whether they needed it or not.
Here's the announcement.
If you prefer just a robust fog horn, here's a different link without the "public service."
Safe navigating!
Saturday, February 23, 2013
How The Romans Handled Debt And Credit
Two researchers at the New York Fed have been looking into money and credit in ancient Rome. How did they use debt and credit to move money around?
Turns out they could move large amounts of money by paper transactions. Not unlike our modern "shadow" banking system.
Bookkeeping must have been a challenge without having zeroes to play with.
Even without zeroes, Romans managed to move a lot of money around without hauling physical gold and silver.
Here's how.
Turns out they could move large amounts of money by paper transactions. Not unlike our modern "shadow" banking system.
Bookkeeping must have been a challenge without having zeroes to play with.
Even without zeroes, Romans managed to move a lot of money around without hauling physical gold and silver.
Here's how.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Seventy Years Ago: USS Iowa (BB-61)
New York, NY: February 22, 1943. USS Iowa (BB-61) was commissioned at New York Naval Shipyard. The lead ship of the most powerful US battleships ever built, Iowa was a 45,000 -ton ship armed with nine 16-inch/50 caliber guns with a range of up to 24 miles, firing a projectile weighing up to 2,750 pounds. She also carried twenty 40-mm quadruple barrel Bofors anti-aircraft guns and twenty 5-inch/38 caliber dual-purpose guns arranged in twin mounts with a range of about 9 miles against surface targets. In addition, she bristled with 20-mm antiaircraft guns that proved of limited use and were removed right after the war.
| Class & type: | Iowa-class battleship |
| Displacement: | 45,000 tons |
| Length: | 887 ft 3 in (270.43 m) |
| Beam: | 108 ft 2 in (32.97 m) |
| Draft: | 37 ft 2 in (11.33 m) |
| Speed: | 33 kn (38 mph; 61 km/h) |
| Complement: | 151 officers, 2637 enlisted |
| Armament: | 1943: 9 × 16 in (406 mm)/50 cal Mark 7 guns 20 × 5 in (127.0 mm)/38 cal Mark 12 guns 80 × 40 mm/56 cal anti-aircraft guns 49 × 20 mm/70 cal anti-aircraft cannons |
USS Iowa is the first ship I ever went to sea in during a midshipman training cruise to Europe during the summer of 1955.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Wind Generators: Department of Defense Data
Wind Energy And Cherry Point
Two weeks ago the Pamlico County Board of Commissioners and the Pamlico County
Planning Board had a joint meeting at the court house to receive a briefing by
Cherry Point on wind generation systems. Specifically, Cherry Point briefed on
problems for their air operations that are anticipated from wind
turbines.
The briefing acknowledged that it is national policy and the policy of the Department of Defense to encourage alternative energy sources. The briefing did not emphasize, as it might have, that Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus has been a leading proponent of alternative energy.
The main focus of the briefing was how wind turbines adversely affect Marine radar systems and how important radar is to their air operations. The main challenge was how to mitigate those effects.
Unfortunately, Cherry Point officials offered no hope and no prospects of hope for mitigation. "To date," one presentation slide asserts, "no study data is published indicating technology exists to eliminate wind turbine adverse effects on radar."
Not so. There are studies.
A 2008 study by MITRE Corporation, one of DOD's most experienced electronics contractors observed. "There is no fundamental physical constraint that prohibits the accurate detection of aircraft and weather patterns around wind farms. On the other hand, the nation’s aging long range radar infrastructure significantly increases the challenge of distinguishing wind farm signatures from airplanes or weather.
"Progress forward requires the development of mitigation measures, and
quantitative evaluation tools and metrics to determine when a wind farm
poses a sufficient threat to a radar installation for corrective action to be
taken. Mitigation measures may include modifications to wind farms (such
as methods to reduce radar cross section; and telemetry from wind farms to
radar), as well as modifications to radar (such as improvements in processing;
radar design modifications; radar replacement; and the use of gap fillers in
radar coverage).
"There is great potential for the mitigation procedures, though there
is currently no source of funding to test how proposed mitigations work in
practice. In general, the government and industry should cooperate to find
methods for funding studies of technical mitigations. NOAA has an excellent
research plan, but no adequate funding to carry it out.
"Once the potential for different mitigations are understood, we see no
scientific hurdle for constructing regulations that are technically based and
simple to understand and implement, with a single government entity tak-
ing responsibility for overseeing the process. In individual cases, the best
solution might be to replace the aging radar station with modern and flexi-
ble equipment that is more able to separate wind farm clutter from aircraft."
Mitre's conclusion: "This is a win-win situation for national security, both improving our radar
infrastructure and promoting the growth of sustainable energy."
So the problem isn't technology, it is budgets for what may prove to be fairly minor improvements to radars, new procedures, and possibly coatings for turbine blades to reduce their radar cross-sections. I got the distinct impression that the Marine Corps isn't sufficiently concerned to spend any R&D funds fixing their radars. Why should they, if they can achieve the same end at no cost by intimidating state and local government? The only cost would be to retard economic development in Pamlico County and that doesn't cost the Marine Corps a dime.
In her introductory remarks to the meeting, Commissioner Holton emphasized the potential economic development benefits of wind energy to Pamlico County.
Speaking of mitigation, any measure to replace fossil fuel energy sources with non-carbon alternatives such as wind, solar or nuclear, will delay anticipated sea level rise from global warming. That should matter to every resident of Pamlico County and elsewhere in Eastern North Carolina. In my case, I just raised my house three feet to mitigate the effect of storm surge after Irene. But predictions are that the sea level will rise one meter (39 inches) this century. If so, my house is back in the flood waters.
So I am in favor of wind, solar and nuclear power. No single solution - all of the above.
This discussion has been going on for awhile here and here and here and here and here and here.
3. The problems concern two types of radar: Air Defense systems (AD) and weather radar.
4. My reading of the report to Congress is that there is no problem with Air Traffic Control (ATC) radar. The reason for this is that ATC relies not only on direct radar return ("skin paint") but also on transponder beacon returns like IFF. The briefing did not mention this distinction, but the bulk of the briefing was by Cherry Point's ATC expert. I don't know if Marine ATC controllers have the aircraft turn off their IFF or other beacons while training at high speed and low altitude in this region. Maybe they do, but if so, we should be told. Whether to turn it on or off during training ops is a procedural issue.
5. Distance from the affected radar can itself provide the necessary mitigation. The key factor is distance from the radar to the radar horizon - which is a bit further than the unobstructed visible horizon would be. Bottom line is, that for a normal radar height, and a blade tip height of 300 feet, there would be no interference beyond a distance of 30 miles, even without special mitigation. For a blade tip height of 500 feet, the safe distance would be 35 miles. Trouble is, Pamlico County is within either distance. But that only applies to AD radars. For ATC radars, there should be no problem.
So what kind of radar are they talking about? The briefing did not provide enough information for Pamlico County planners and commissioners to develop suitable regulations for wind farms.
Weather radar is a different matter. Here is a pretty good illustration and discussion of the problem: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=windfarm There is also some discussion of weather radar in the report to Congress. I did not get the impression from the Cherry Point briefing that they are worried about the weather radar.
I'm not sure what to make of it.
I think the county needs more information.
The briefing acknowledged that it is national policy and the policy of the Department of Defense to encourage alternative energy sources. The briefing did not emphasize, as it might have, that Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus has been a leading proponent of alternative energy.
The main focus of the briefing was how wind turbines adversely affect Marine radar systems and how important radar is to their air operations. The main challenge was how to mitigate those effects.
Unfortunately, Cherry Point officials offered no hope and no prospects of hope for mitigation. "To date," one presentation slide asserts, "no study data is published indicating technology exists to eliminate wind turbine adverse effects on radar."
Not so. There are studies.
A 2008 study by MITRE Corporation, one of DOD's most experienced electronics contractors observed. "There is no fundamental physical constraint that prohibits the accurate detection of aircraft and weather patterns around wind farms. On the other hand, the nation’s aging long range radar infrastructure significantly increases the challenge of distinguishing wind farm signatures from airplanes or weather.
"Progress forward requires the development of mitigation measures, and
quantitative evaluation tools and metrics to determine when a wind farm
poses a sufficient threat to a radar installation for corrective action to be
taken. Mitigation measures may include modifications to wind farms (such
as methods to reduce radar cross section; and telemetry from wind farms to
radar), as well as modifications to radar (such as improvements in processing;
radar design modifications; radar replacement; and the use of gap fillers in
radar coverage).
"There is great potential for the mitigation procedures, though there
is currently no source of funding to test how proposed mitigations work in
practice. In general, the government and industry should cooperate to find
methods for funding studies of technical mitigations. NOAA has an excellent
research plan, but no adequate funding to carry it out.
"Once the potential for different mitigations are understood, we see no
scientific hurdle for constructing regulations that are technically based and
simple to understand and implement, with a single government entity tak-
ing responsibility for overseeing the process. In individual cases, the best
solution might be to replace the aging radar station with modern and flexi-
ble equipment that is more able to separate wind farm clutter from aircraft."
Mitre's conclusion: "This is a win-win situation for national security, both improving our radar
infrastructure and promoting the growth of sustainable energy."
So the problem isn't technology, it is budgets for what may prove to be fairly minor improvements to radars, new procedures, and possibly coatings for turbine blades to reduce their radar cross-sections. I got the distinct impression that the Marine Corps isn't sufficiently concerned to spend any R&D funds fixing their radars. Why should they, if they can achieve the same end at no cost by intimidating state and local government? The only cost would be to retard economic development in Pamlico County and that doesn't cost the Marine Corps a dime.
In her introductory remarks to the meeting, Commissioner Holton emphasized the potential economic development benefits of wind energy to Pamlico County.
Speaking of mitigation, any measure to replace fossil fuel energy sources with non-carbon alternatives such as wind, solar or nuclear, will delay anticipated sea level rise from global warming. That should matter to every resident of Pamlico County and elsewhere in Eastern North Carolina. In my case, I just raised my house three feet to mitigate the effect of storm surge after Irene. But predictions are that the sea level will rise one meter (39 inches) this century. If so, my house is back in the flood waters.
So I am in favor of wind, solar and nuclear power. No single solution - all of the above.
This discussion has been going on for awhile here and here and here and here and here and here.
Not certain I have the whole story, I did more research on the wind farm/radar issues. What I have found is:
1. There is data. Some was reported to the Congress in 2006: www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/WindFarmReport.pdf
2. There is information on what mitigation works.1. There is data. Some was reported to the Congress in 2006: www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/WindFarmReport.pdf
3. The problems concern two types of radar: Air Defense systems (AD) and weather radar.
4. My reading of the report to Congress is that there is no problem with Air Traffic Control (ATC) radar. The reason for this is that ATC relies not only on direct radar return ("skin paint") but also on transponder beacon returns like IFF. The briefing did not mention this distinction, but the bulk of the briefing was by Cherry Point's ATC expert. I don't know if Marine ATC controllers have the aircraft turn off their IFF or other beacons while training at high speed and low altitude in this region. Maybe they do, but if so, we should be told. Whether to turn it on or off during training ops is a procedural issue.
5. Distance from the affected radar can itself provide the necessary mitigation. The key factor is distance from the radar to the radar horizon - which is a bit further than the unobstructed visible horizon would be. Bottom line is, that for a normal radar height, and a blade tip height of 300 feet, there would be no interference beyond a distance of 30 miles, even without special mitigation. For a blade tip height of 500 feet, the safe distance would be 35 miles. Trouble is, Pamlico County is within either distance. But that only applies to AD radars. For ATC radars, there should be no problem.
So what kind of radar are they talking about? The briefing did not provide enough information for Pamlico County planners and commissioners to develop suitable regulations for wind farms.
Weather radar is a different matter. Here is a pretty good illustration and discussion of the problem: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=windfarm There is also some discussion of weather radar in the report to Congress. I did not get the impression from the Cherry Point briefing that they are worried about the weather radar.
I'm not sure what to make of it.
I think the county needs more information.
Monday, February 18, 2013
Picasso's Secret
Now we know Picasso's secret. Thanks to Argonne National Laboratory and a study using high energy X-rays, we have learned that Picasso painted some of his masterpieces using house paint.
It isn't fair. We have always been told that a craftsman is known by his tools. A fine craftsman must use the best tools. And the best materials.
So how can Pablo Picasso, one of history's great artists, have made great art with ordinary house paint?
Maybe we need to alter conventional wisdom. Perhaps great craftsmen and artists are free to choose the tools and materials that work, not just the "best quality" tools.
Don't be snobbish.
Do what works.
It isn't fair. We have always been told that a craftsman is known by his tools. A fine craftsman must use the best tools. And the best materials.
So how can Pablo Picasso, one of history's great artists, have made great art with ordinary house paint?
Maybe we need to alter conventional wisdom. Perhaps great craftsmen and artists are free to choose the tools and materials that work, not just the "best quality" tools.
Don't be snobbish.
Do what works.
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